Dr. Saturday - NCAAF

Here is Nick Saban, talking Wednesday evening about many things, among them the axe that fell on Tommy Tuberville earlier in the day (hang around: he brings it up early and again later on):


There seem to be two perspectives coming from the Auburn side of things, though there's really only one from the national perspective, briefly summed up in the instant reaction here: Tuberville was 85-40 over 10 years, had the 11th-highest win percentage in the country and third-best in the SEC in the eight years between his first season (1999) and his last, went undefeated in 2004, had a winning record against top-10 and top-25 teams and beat Alabama six straight times.

That's a near-impeccable resumé in the big picture, and the reason a large segment of Tiger fans are hurt, sickened, angry and ashamed while hugely successful, respected coaches like Saban are left to think, "I guess I'm 5-7 away from the same thing."

You'll find the other side at The Joe Cribbs Car Wash, who is appreciative of Tubs' overall body of work, but can see his next two weeks of posts unfolding before him:

I'm going to end up a broken record on this over the next several weeks (or months, or years), but: this was NOT a case of Auburn having "one bad year." Statistically, the 2006 team was in no way an 11-2 team and represented a substantial step down from the 2005 quality team. 2007 was another dramatic step down, this time with the losses to accompany it. And the 2008 record is not a fluke: Auburn is tied for 107th in the country in offensive yards-per-play and was a missed Miss. St. field goal and a botched Tennessee handoff from going winless in the SEC.

This is the lament of someone who's watched the games and had a sinking feeling in his stomach long before it showed up on the record. I know what it's like to have a vastly different opinion than the media looking from the outside in about the direction of a beloved program under a largely successful coach; in Jerry's case at TJCCW, as he pointed out two weeks ago and again Wednesday, that malaise that showed finally showed up in the record has been present in the declining level of Auburn's average play over the last five years:

Jerry is patient enough to emphasize that he would have preferred to have Tuberville back for an 11th season. But when you consider watching that decline in person, you can understand his forgiving attitude toward the administration -- if, in fact, it actually was the administration's decision rather than Tuberville's, which isn't certain at this point.

So Tuberville and Fulmer, long-tenured, championship-winning coaches with career winning percentages above 60 percent, one of them at his alma mater, have been shown the door. Such is life when Urban Meyer, Nick Saban and Mark Richt are glowering from the opposite sideline, making a mint and turning bricks into gold in two or three years. And when the new kingpins get slightly complacent and briefly lose ground to the next round of mercenaries, Saban is right: He'll be next. If you're going cutthroat, shelling out $4 million a year for championship games, mega-payouts from bowls and huge gates, you can't afford luxuries like patience and rebuilding.

That brings us to Notre Dame, where, in contrast to Fulmer and Tuberville, there isn't much of a debate about the Irish's decision to bring back Charlie Weis: the Chicago Tribune thinks it's a bad idea, the Sun-Times' Neil Hayes says four years is long enough to evaluate anyone, the South Bend Tribune says Weis' return proves an ugly double standard, Rakes of Mallow makes the case for firing Weis and the Blue-Gray Sky just assumes the school is keeping the seat warm for Weis' successor. No one publicly evaluating Notre Dame's thinks Weis has any long-term prospects except Jack Swarbrick, who's opinion happens to be the only one that matters.

That is loyalty, patience and commitment to a man who has led ND to its worst two-year run in program history. And it is universally expected to fail miserably.

digg delicious
more

11 Comments

Post a Comment
  1. Mug Master
    1. Posted by Mug Master Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:17 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Good statement by Saban on the other coaches, but you misquoted him. He never says "I" in relation to himself, it's always "we". So he actually said "I guess we're 5-7 away from the same thing." He goes to such lengths to use that "Royal We", you should oblige him when quoting.
  2. Brian
    2. Posted by Brian Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:13 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    I'd be interested to see an analysis of Missouri's offense and defense in the first four years of Gary Pinkel's career. After the 2004 season there were many fans calling for his head (though I doubt it was as bad as the Notre Dame situation) and the administration stuck with him.
  3. Year2
    3. Posted by Year2 Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:28 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    It's different for Pinkel though, because those first four years came before he had his breakthrough. Tuberville's was in 2004 and the chart shows the decline of the offense ever since. Pinkel had his breakthrough last season, which has for the most part carried through to this year.
    A better comparison would be Tuberville's last four seasons versus the four years after this one when Chase Daniel, and presumably Jeremy Maclin via the draft too, will be gone. When Jason Campbell, Cadillac Williams, and Ronnie Brown left, it was the beginning of the end in Auburn. Whether Daniel's and Maclin's departures are the beginning of the end for Pinkel will be seen over the course of the next four seasons.
  4. Matt H
    4. Posted by Matt H Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:27 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Agreed, Year2. Pinkel's path after four years was generally up -- not a breakthrough, but the steam was improving overall. Weis' has clearly been down, and it's as down this year as it was for most of 2007.
    And I just disagree, Ken. Saban isn't misrepresented in any way. I am not "obliged" to indulge his pretensions when paraphrasing. The straight quote is provided for you. 'I' and 'We' in this context are interchangeable, they carry precisely the same meaning, and in fact, 'I' communicates his meaning more effectively.
    This is a very petty argument, and I wouldn't even comment on it if I didn't sense an element of "coach worship" behind that critique; coach worship is the Web equivalent of bamboo shoots under my fingernails. I cannot imagine Saban or anyone else regarding his words as so infallible as to make the application of the "Royal We" even slightly relevant when his exact, literal meaning is both presented in video and then transcribed accurately.
  5. James P
    5. Posted by James P Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:28 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    After Barry Alvarez won his first Rose Bowl, he had a losing season. If the administration had fired him then, UW wouldn't have had their back to back Rose Bowl wins and Heisman trophy winner. Sometimes programs have to take their lumps. There is something to be said for continuity. As far as CW goes...well I figured that's what they hired Tenuta for; to take the reigns after CW is fired and molds all those 4 star recruits into a championship. After all, they already have a DC. Guess I was wrong.
  6. thelegacyx4
    6. Posted by thelegacyx4 Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:04 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Problem w/ firing Tubs right now is...who is else is out there?
  7. marcillac
    7. Posted by marcillac Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:06 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Doc, you're absolutely right to note that the balance of initiative that resulted in this "resignation" is not entirely clear and correct to draw the analogy to your analysis of the USM situation. The trajectory here, regardless of the excellence of the overall record is clear. As, thelegacy4 points out, however, to that extent that this is at the initative of the school and/or...err...associated individuals, "who else is out there"? The Pirate is by far the most interesting real possibility but a problematic one for a number of reasons.
    The same question probably provides a significant portion of the answer in respect of what happened at Notre Dame: "Who else IS out there". Given the size of the buyout, the youth of the team and the lack of a viable (and financially feasible - see bellow) alternatives, the decision is more easily understood. Urban Meyer might in fact be a possibility at $50 ($60?) million garanteed, but can they afford that? Moreover, no one, not Urban Meyer, not Nick Saban not Pete Carrol will reproduce a Florida, Bama, USC or even an Ohio State (adjusted for weather) in South Bend. As you yourself wrote a couple of weeks ago that weather, academics and other factors make it out of the question that Notre Dame will compete for MNC on a regular basis. 9-3 records, with the occasional BCS Bowl are really the most that can be reasonbaly attained.
  8. SnowedIn'Bama
    8. Posted by SnowedIn'Bama Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:01 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Beyond whether Fulmer and Tubs should have been fired, my question is what happens via the recruiting angle. Saban, Richt, and Meyer are the SEC uber-recruiters left. Nutt is spreading his tenacles. Davis and Cutliffe will take recruits to the ACC. If Tubs and Fulmer's old turfs are divied up (and I am not sure Kiffin and Tubs' replacement can realistically stop this), where does that leave the Tigers and Vols? Will they really get the recruits to "rebuild" their programs? There are two powerhouses established at UFA and UF, Saban re-animated 'Bama, Nutt is making Ole Miss a player, and Davis and Cutcliffe are making NC schools worth-while. I question whether the admins paid attention to the potential problems they face in the next few years.
  9. bigboo's bro
    9. Posted by bigboo's bro Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:38 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    If Au Barn considers itself an institution of higher learning, or heck, even lower learning, Tuberluber has no place there. Au Barn would be wise to end Tuberluber's proud tradition of turning illiterate recruits into illiterate drop-outs or, for the very lucky few, illiterate NFL players.
  10. Art
    10. Posted by Art Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:58 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Matt,
    Are we kidding ourselves? Why in the world Auburn let Tuberville go is beyond my ability to understand. As you writers preach week after week, season after season, SEC is a difficult turf to play and the guy had a winning record.
    Regarding Weis, do you all think that the University and the Coach were completely in the oblivion regarding the depth chart? Notre Dame recruiting, with exception of the second TW class, which included Brady Quinn et al, was bad since the Davie era. The consequence of having bad recruiting classes year after year is a complete lack of depth in the “depth” chart. Even Pete Carroll was aware of that deficiency. Unless ND would tab into the Junior College pool, there was no way to avoid disastrous seasons as it was already written in the wall for anyone to see. Any other explanation is simply a pathological denial or a façade to attempt to hide the obvious.
    CW was given one more year because anybody with little insight into recruiting could see that there was no way to avoid 2007 or 2008. I honestly think that changes will be coming as this year Junior Class should have stepped up to the plate and they did not; ND could have been a 9-3 or 8-4 team this season and they failed miserably by not been able to finish games. The “inoffensive” line was pathetic at times and the main reason, I believe, for ND ineffective offensive unit.
  11. labulldoger
    11. Posted by labulldoger Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:55 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    who would want to take a job like that ? fulmer deserved 2 be fired hes old not getting recruits but kiffen doesnt deserve the job in tenn either. when saben left LSU he said to hire houston nutt not miles miles is horrible sabens players are gone your left with nothing 2 years LSU will be looking 4 a coach. the sec is hard thats why you make the big bucks.

Dr. Saturday

Add to My Yahoo! RSS

Matt Hinton

Dr. Saturday is a college football blog edited by Matt Hinton. Email him tips and feedback.

Related Photo Gallery

Y! Sports Blogs

Dr. Saturday Recent Readers