Dr. Saturday - NCAAF

Thu Dec 18, 2008 11:36 am EST

Bowl viewing for value: The lucky ones.

Recommended viewing for usually ignorable games that landed a much better match-up than they have any right to.

Poinsettia. (Dec. 23, San Diego)
  • Usual game: Mountain West also-ran vs. overmatched, 7-5 straggler.
  • This year's game: Boise State vs. TCU (–2.5)
Whatever attention the Poinsettia's earned the last two years was entirely the result of its leading off the bowl schedule, and neither game -- because of TCU's blowout over hopelessly outclassed Northern Illinois and Utah's no-stakes win over Navy last year -- had any cachet whatsoever. Outside of the BCS, though, there's no higher-rated collision than undefeated Boise State and TCU, whose only losses are to Oklahoma (the Horned Frogs held the Sooners to their lowest point total of the season, 35, matched only by Texas) and at undefeated Utah in the final minute of a game the Frogs controlled throughout.

The Broncos won a tight 34-31 game when both teams were ranked in the top-20 in the 2003 Forth Worth Bowl. This time, they're both top-12 in the final BCS standings, and Boise's second win over a top-20 outfit (depending on what happens with September victim Oregon in this same stadium a week later in the Holiday Bowl) combined with the unblemished record would give the Broncos breath for one long, sustained offseason crow about the injustice of it all.

Meineke Car Care. (Dec. 27, Charlotte)
  • Usual game: Nondescript ACC/Big East team beats nondescript Big East/ACC team in nondescript fashion.
  • This year's game: West Virginia vs. North Carolina (Pick 'em)
Any matchup that's too close for Vegas to call should be interesting, but there's a lot of meat in this game. Both teams were in position to control their respective conferences in late October, and were very, very close (overtime for West Virginia in its loss to Cincinnati, two late turnovers-cum-touchdowns for Virginia Tech in UNC's three-point loss to the Hokies in September) to achieving those titles.

Most interesting, though, is two programs heading in opposite directions. With Pat White's last hurrah, West Virginia's descent into "just another Big East team" officially begins next year after the most successful three-year run in school history from 2005-07, at the same time Butch Davis' manic recruiting -- already in evidence in the Heels' extreme improvement this year over 2007 -- pushes UNC to the fore of the ACC's power vacuum. You can't do much better than Past vs. Future.

PapaJohns.com (Dec. 29, Birmingham)
  • Usual game: Big East also-ran pounds C-USA nobody.
  • This year's game: Rutgers (–8.5) vs. N.C. State
"7-5 Big East team vs. 6-6 ACC team" is about as unattractive as it gets in the abstract, but the Knights and Pack happen to have combined for 10 straight wins to close the regular season (six in a row by Rutgers, four for N.C. State) by an average of 20.4 points per game; six of those 10 wins were over other eventual bowl teams, including shocking routs of South Florida (which Rutgers hammered 49-16 on Nov. 15) and North Carolina (a 41-10 cruise for the Wolfpack the following week). Rutgers quarterback Mike Teel went from a 3:7 touchdown:interception ratio through his team's 1-5 start to a 20:5 ratio over the six-game winning streak, with at least three touchdown passes in four of the last five and an unreal 220.3 efficiency rating over the last month; Wilson hasn't been picked off since mid-September and won every all-ACC and all-freshman award he was up for.

Put it this way: If the odds on a new season were issued right now, this would be the projected Orange Bowl game instead of Virginia Tech-Cincinnati.

GMAC. (Jan. 6, Mobile)
  • Usual game: A random MAC team and a random C-USA team putting up ridiculous amounts of points.
  • This year's game: Ball State (–2.5) vs. Tulsa
Well, yeah, this is still the MAC and C-USA runners-up putting up ridiculous amounts of points. But both the Cardinal and Hurricane were strong favorites to win their respective conference championship games, had legitimate designs on a perfect record late in the year and, yes, bring absurd offenses with no defense in sight. Since the epic Marshall 64, East Carolina 61 game in 2001, the average GMAC bowl final is Winner 48, Loser 24. I promise the loser of this game will score more than 24 points.

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  1. gtne91
    1. Posted by gtne91 Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:43 pm EDT

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    "Put it this way: If the odds on a new season were issued right now, this would be the projected Orange Bowl game instead of Virginia Tech-Cincinnati."
    Really? NC St over GT? Now, they might be projected to the ACCCG, but I dont think they would be the projected winner.
  2. just4funsies
    2. Posted by just4funsies Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:44 pm EDT

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    BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
    Usual Game: SEC Champion that nobody thinks should be there pwns all-powerful, highly overrated Big-10 Champion.
    This Year's Game: SEC Champion that nobody thinks should be there pwns all-powerful, highly overrated Big-12 Champion.
    And the beat-down goes on...
  3. Matt H
    3. Posted by Matt H Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:48 pm EDT

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    Funsies: Who doesn't think Florida should be there?
  4. CuseFanInSoCal
    4. Posted by CuseFanInSoCal Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:48 pm EDT

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    ROSE BOWL
    Traditional game: Big Ten champion vs. Pac 10 champion
    Usual actual game (in the BCS era): Big Ten runner-up gets squashed by USC
    This year's game: Two teams that are basically paying for the sins of their conference reputations meet in the Rose Bowl instead of the BCS title game despite the same number of losses and the same number of wins over ranked teams as one of the title game participants. Granted, still USC vs. a Big Ten team, and USC is still going to win, but Penn State should be more competitive than Michigan or Illinois.
  5. just4funsies
    5. Posted by just4funsies Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:44 pm EDT

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    Matt, certainly not me, but I'm reading a lot of peeps on the boards who think PSU, Texas and USC were more deserving. Just homerism, probably, but a lot of people are taking the Gators more lightly than they should, and putting WAY too much emphasis on an early season 1-point loss (a brain-fart, actually) to what turned out to be a surprisingly good Ol' Miss team.
  6. WesB
    6. Posted by WesB Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:13 pm EDT

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    Im gettin really tired of listening to Trojan fans out there talking they had there chance and lost to an unranked team they deserve to be where there at the pac ten and big ten suck they deserve to be playing each other. And im not sure I agree with Florida either Matt I mean they lose to a ol miss squad that has barely hung on to a top 25 ranking and I know it was a blocked field goal at the end but still texas got beat on the last play and there not getting to play so to sum up I got a way to solve all of this yall ready for it..... playoff please please playoff thats all I want for christmas is a 8 or 1 6 team playoff.
  7. Adair
    7. Posted by Adair Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:28 pm EDT

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    Florida lost to Ole Miss... OU lost to texas. OU UF
  8. Frank N. Blunt
    8. Posted by Frank N. Blunt Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:46 pm EDT

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    Go Sooners
    fork the Gators
    Go Bucks
    good bowl matchups everywhere
    but now they are cliched?
  9. CuseFanInSoCal
    9. Posted by CuseFanInSoCal Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:48 pm EDT

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    #5, there's no way to know without playoffs. And I'm not sure how Florida's situation with regard to Mississippi is any different than USC's with regard to Oregon State, except that Florida was at home for their loss.
    The Pac 10 and Big Ten are perceived as being down this year. The SEC really is down this year. Noone in the Big 12 except Oklahoma has beat anyone significant out of conference (and as much as I like the MWC and Big East, and as good as they played, Cinci and TCU as the marquee non-conference wins for the league isn't all that impressive). Utah needed a lot of luck against TCU to stay undefeated (and had a very close brush with Oregon State as well). Alabama, Texas Tech, and Texas certainly lost to better teams than Florida did (so did Ohio State and TCU, for that matter), USC probably did, and you can even make a case that Iowa was better than Ole Miss this year.
  10. AndreG
    10. Posted by AndreG Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:48 pm EDT

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    How about the Insight Bowl??
    Go Gophers!!!
  11. Zachary K
    11. Posted by Zachary K Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:00 pm EDT

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    "bcs national championship game
    usual game: sec champion that nobody thinks should be there pwns all-powerful, highly overrated big-10 champion."
    that has happened once. "team roughly on the 35th parallel beats florida state" would have been more accurate.
  12. Someone plz KO Anderson Silva
    12. Posted by Someone plz KO Anderson Silva Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:30 pm EDT

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    Why not leave the "homecoming-queen" subdivision and join the playoff subdivision?
    ...or you could just settle on going to the "Papajohns extra large cheese pizza with mushrooms bowl" for one game and going home.
  13. MRA
    13. Posted by MRA Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:03 pm EDT

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    well i still think that ball state should b playing boise state but i think that ball state was worried they would get beat so they opted for tulsa instead
  14. just4funsies
    14. Posted by just4funsies Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:44 pm EDT

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    "that has happened once"
    Happened twice in BCS years... '06 and '07, and once more over favored Big-12 in '03.
  15. Joseph J
    15. Posted by Joseph J Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:38 pm EDT

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    Gator haters. chomp chomp. but the gators have proven themselves so accept it. go tebow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  16. saucehead09
    16. Posted by saucehead09 Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:06 pm EDT

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    What gives a Syracuse fan the right to knock any conference or any team. Does Syracuse still have a football team? And Penn State will beat USC in the Rose Bowl! Road Lions Roar!!!
  17. Todd
    17. Posted by Todd Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:14 pm EDT

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    Sorry but in the midwest, if you beat somebody on a neutral(yeah OK Dallas is in Texas), you should get the benefit of the doubt. Fact is the Big 12 didn't want a rematch for the title game so OU beats the tar out of Mizzou(duh) and now gets FL in the NCG. Fair? no..please let's try the playoffs with the top 8 teams. This way "one and done" actually may mean something...
  18. melchioni13
    18. Posted by melchioni13 Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:15 pm EDT

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    georgia vs michigan state- capitol one bowl- over hyped game georgia will run and pass all over michigan states horrrible defense and georgias superior defense will shut down javon ringer who is overated and cant put up big numbers against the big schools
  19. Boostedsm
    19. Posted by Boostedsm Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:41 pm EDT

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    Frogs by 7 FTW, the only good Broncos are from Denver.
  20. adam
    20. Posted by adam Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:18 pm EDT

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    I think if you are in the top 10 to you go to a BCS game. You earned it and then you don't have Ohio state taking BSU's spot at a BCS game that we all Know they can compete in. We need another BCS conference on the west coast to actually give Utah, BSU and other non BCS powerhouses a chance at the title game. How many teams can say they went undefeated 4 out of the last 5 years? OH wait BSU can!!!!
  21. Eddie Y
    21. Posted by Eddie Y Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:39 pm EDT

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    OU wins out
    Texas wins out
    OU national champions Texas ranked no. 2. What is wrong with this bcs picture?......oh yea! Texas (the number two team) BEAT! OU the number one team. ( They could have run up the score if everyone remembers correctly but they have class.) I hope this is how it winds up so everyone can see just how stupid the BCS system really is. Boycott the BCS......it is really the BS system
  22. brian s
    22. Posted by brian s Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:10 pm EDT

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    Ole Miss not a good team, mark my words Ole Miss beats Texas Tech by 14+ points this year in the cotton bowl!
  23. Marlow
    23. Posted by Marlow Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:08 pm EDT

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    "bcs national championship game
    usual game: sec champion that nobody thinks should be there pwns all-powerful, highly overrated big-10 champion."
    that has happened once. "team roughly on the 35th parallel beats florida state" would have been more accurate.
    That happened 2 yrs strait
  24. Ben T
    24. Posted by Ben T Thu Sep 03, 2009 6:59 pm EDT

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    Many people just see that Oklahoma scored 94 touchdowns this season, but they forget that they 360 yards a game, (and 36 touchdowns a game) to whom? Who did they let score on them? Oklahoma State along put up 41 points, Kansas put up 35. Keep in mind that the Kansas squad that put up 35 points went on to finish the season 7-5 with loses to Nebraska and South Florida. Don't get me wrong, Oklahoma is a good team, but not one of the top two teams. They will have a tough time scoring against a tough SEC defense, and the Sooners cannot rely on their defense to save them. USC on the other hand only gave up 11 touchdowns all season, 11! Notre Dame did not get a single first down until the last play of the 3rd quarter! How does this team that not only just defeated the #10 ranked Buckeyes, but destroyed them in a 35-3 win. The Trojans held the Buckeyes to only 207 yards, which is only one more yard than USC averages a game on defense. USC may only have 58 touchdowns, but they outscore their opponents (in terms of touchdowns) by a ratio of roughly 5:1. How does that not deserve a shot at the national title?
  25. Sw
    25. Posted by Sw Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:52 pm EDT

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    Go psu!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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