Dr. Saturday - NCAAF

Boise State is the winningest program in the nation this decade: The Broncos are 81 games over .500 since 2000. In this economy, though, they're hardly immune to the crunch: The BSU athletic department has already trimmed its budget and made a handful of staff cuts to come in under the bar for the coming fiscal year.

The financial issue is looming so large, in fact, that it may be about to affect that sparkling record:

Boise State likely will be more aggressive in pursuing “guarantee” football games — one-time road games against powerhouse programs for which the Broncos are paid handsomely. Athletic director Gene Bleymaier has sprinkled those into his schedule sparingly in the past but recognizes them as an easy way to increase revenue in tight times. The Broncos have openings in 2010 and 2011 that could be filled by that type of game.
[...]
"Right now, I’d go where I can make the most money," he said. "If I can play at home and make that much money, then I’m going to play at home. But it’s difficult to make that much money in our stadium size. … I’ve tried to avoid those (guarantee games). Now they’re much more of a reality going forward."

Regular readers may recognize Bleymaier as one of the anti-BCS members of the panel that went before Congress last month, when he lamented the fact that Boise had been snubbed by the BCS after undefeated seasons in 2004 and 2008 and shut out of the national championship proceedings when the unbeaten Broncos snuck into the Fiesta Bowl in 2006. The '04 and '06 teams both beat Oregon State on the blue turf; the Broncos won at Oregon to set up last year's perfect regular season.

I've always just assumed the heavy hitters were trying to duck Boise, because it's all risk and no reward -- win, and you're supposed to win; lose, and you lost to Boise. But why would Boise, ambitious as it obviously is, try to avoid the heavy hitters on the road?

Boise State Road Games vs. "Big Six" Conferences Since 2000
2000: at Arkansas ............. L, 31-38
2000: at Wash. State ......... L, 35-42
2001: at South Carolina ..... L, 13-32
2002: at Arkansas ............. L, 14-41
2003: at Oregon State ....... L, 24-26
2005: at Georgia ............... L, 13-48
2005: at Oregon State ....... L, 27-30
2007: at Washington .......... L, 10-24
2008: at Oregon ................ W, 37-32

I see. To deepen the hole a little further, Boise has also played two road games in that span against ranked opponents from the WAC, at Fresno State in 2005 and at BCS-bound Hawaii in 2007, and lost both by double digits. (I will leave it to Oregon fans in the comments to lament the Ducks' dismal quarterback situation during last year's loss in Eugene, but they'll also have to explain the 386 yards passing allowed by the Oregon secondary.)

But lest this be construed as some kind of broadside, let me dispel that: On the contrary, any effort to upgrade schedule strength -- even if it's entirely financially motivated -- is commendable, especially for a team with a resumé like Boise State's, which stands at this point in its development to cultivate an image as a roving mercenary taking on all comers to offset the burden of playing a string of WAC patsies. If the mid-major conferences really want to knock down the doors of the BCS, loading up on the most murderous possible non-conference schedule is the most plausible road to nirvana. Take Utah last year, with wins over Oregon State and Michigan: If the Wolverines had held up their end of the bargain for the rest of the season, the Utes probably would have played for the championship in Miami. That's bad luck, but good strategy: If you're going to go to Congress about your opportunity to play with the big boys, you have to make a conscious effort to play the big boys.

Of course, then you have to beat the big boys, which is where Fresno State's "Anyone Anytime Anywhere" schtick has consistently run aground, and where the Broncos have fallen short in the kind of payday games Bleymaier is looking for. Boise's future non-conference schedules are no joke, but on top of the WAC rabble, the scalps of Mountain West heavies and Pac-10 also-rans aren't going to do much where the BCS is concerned. As long as bigger games are going to become a priority, they might as well think really big.

- - -
Hat tip: Blutarsky.

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  1. Nevaduck
    1. Posted by Nevaduck Thu Jun 18, 2009 6:36 pm EDT

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    Simple really. When a teams offense isn't on the field very much, the other team gets more plays against the opposing defense, and more yards. When Jeron Johnson put the late hit on Masoli, Chris Harper (a true freshman) promptly threw 2 interceptions.
    Oregon's defense is often underrated when you just look at the number of yards allowed. It becomes a heck of a lot clearer when you acknowledge that their defense was on the field for more downs than other unit in the country, by far.
  2. ev
    2. Posted by ev Thu Jun 18, 2009 6:38 pm EDT

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    The sign in the second picture should read: "unbeaten 3 of 5 years not counting bowl games". You know a fan base screaming look at me when they do signs like that. Kind of like Saban last year saying Bama was the only unbeaten team in the regular season after losing to Florida.
  3. Mobius
    3. Posted by Mobius Thu Jun 18, 2009 8:05 pm EDT

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    I love Boise State and I hope that they will follow the path that Utah has gone to gain national acclaim. In any case, Boise is a fun team to watch. Here's hoping that they at least stay entertaining.
  4. bobby
    4. Posted by bobby Thu Jun 18, 2009 8:15 pm EDT

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    1st if you are going to disscuss non big six records app state has a bettter record then boise, 2nd at least it was good to hear one of these anti bcs schools admit they try not to schedule games against big 6 schools so thier records look good. 3rd if bosie state really wants to compeate for championships then play a champs schedule or if they really want to impress somebody come down south baby we will show ya how to play lol
  5. AERose
    5. Posted by AERose Thu Jun 18, 2009 8:34 pm EDT

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    "Simple really. When a teams offense isn't on the field very much, the other team gets more plays against the opposing defense, and more yards."
    That doesn't explain why Boise was passing for more than 10 yards per attempt. You'd think that number would regress to the mean over the course of 36 attempts, but not against Oregon. (Credit where credit is due, after getting burned by USC Oregon held its last 7 opponents to under 7.4 ypa passing, so bully them. On the other hand, of those teams only Cal and Oklahoma State came in significantly below average, and you'd imagine a lot of that had to do with torrential downpours and receivers getting injured and quarterbacks getting wrecked on scrambles and whatnot. So basically yeah, your secondary is screwed.)
  6. Billy R
    6. Posted by Billy R Thu Jun 18, 2009 8:51 pm EDT

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    Everyone forgets Oregon was supposed to have this All Pac-10 secondary ... and a freshman picked them apart and made them look silly ...
    The loss at Washington was once again turned by Pac-10 officials ... Boise returned a kickoff for a TD in the first half which would have changed the momentum of the game ... the alleged illegal block was 5-7 yds BEHIND the returner and was questionable at best ...
    One of the two losses at Oregon State had a fourth down play late that cost BSU possession that the Pac-10 office apologized saying it was a bad call ...
    BSU's talent has improved since 2005 but the major difference is depth ... BSU now has athletes and DEPTH on par with the middle of the road teams in the BCS conferences. Lack of depth is usually the killer to non-BCS programs when they play the big boys ...
    And the losses to Fresno and UH ... in 2008 the way UH played in the Islands with a BCS game on the line there were very few teams in CFB that could have won in Honolulu that nite ... the 2005 loss to FSU was in a quagmire ... and the author leaves out the 2003 game at FSU when the Broncos defeated ON THE ROAD the #8 ranked Bulldogs with future NFL QB David Carr and five or six other draftees on the field ...
    September 3 will be another statement game .... the Ducks are going down ... hard ....
  7. Spidey
    7. Posted by Spidey Thu Jun 18, 2009 8:54 pm EDT

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    Broncos would destroy app st
  8. Billy R
    8. Posted by Billy R Thu Jun 18, 2009 9:01 pm EDT

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    And one more thing ...
    You think the win over OU was a fluke ... ???
    17 or 18 players off that 2006 roster made it to NFL camps ... five have stuck ... and four or five more have a chance this year ... and soon-to-be All-merican CB/PR Kyle Wilson is a lock to move to the NFL in 2010 ... He is one of only five seniors on the BSU roster this season ... two starters and three reserves ....
    Let's see what Big Boys have the cojones (and a spare million lying around) to take on the Broncos in 2010 and 2011 ....
    The writer is correct ... playing BSU is kinda no-win situation for BCS schools .... kudos to the Ducks ...
    And the other non-BCS darling -- UTAH .... they got their butts kicked 36-3 by the Broncos IN SALT LAKE CITY on our last visit in 2006 ....
    And TCU's one-pt win over BSU in the Poinsettia Bowl last December was the FIRST AND ONLY win by the Mountain West Conference over Boise State since BSU became a D-1 member barely more than 10 years ago ...
  9. bobby
    9. Posted by bobby Thu Jun 18, 2009 9:25 pm EDT

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    spidy you are right if they played but sentence was boise had the best record in the nation and thats not true app state does
  10. MikeLew
    10. Posted by MikeLew Thu Jun 18, 2009 9:28 pm EDT

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    If Boise State wants to battle the big boys, they need to make it financially feasible. Check out how the deals work for the OSU-USC, Clemson-Alabama, etc., etc. games, and you'll see why Boise State can't get teams to fly to Idaho. It's not that big 6 teams are ducking them, it's that playing a 1-1 with BSU will cost those teams tons of money.
    That's why they can get the Pac-10's soft middle and bottom-tier teams.....those places don't draw fans all that well, compared to the Big Ten, SEC, and Big XII teams.
    If Boise State wants those games, they've got to travel like FSU and Miami did 30 years ago.......play without the return game, and earn your place. They haven't done it yet.
  11. Annubis
    11. Posted by Annubis Thu Jun 18, 2009 10:08 pm EDT

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    Boise State will be in a BCS bowl this year. You can bank it. They are this year's Utah.
  12. ev
    12. Posted by ev Thu Jun 18, 2009 10:28 pm EDT

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    The loss at UW was the fault of the refs? OMG, could you have written anything more mid-major. Boise State lost by 14 points to the worse teams in the Pac10. The refs don't cause that to happen to good teams. Boise State was shut out in the second half, the refs don't cause that. Sorry but the refs didn't cause Boise State to lose to UW, that was a team not ready to play on the road.
    Here is a hint, doesn't matter if the illegal block was behind the play it's still illegal. Just means it's a bone headed block instead of just a stupid one.
  13. ShawnH
    13. Posted by ShawnH Fri Jun 19, 2009 4:02 am EDT

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    Wasn't there a win against Oklahoma in there somewhere?
  14. Credit
    14. Posted by Credit Fri Jun 19, 2009 10:56 am EDT

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    Michigan has an opening on their 2010 schedule. As a Michigan fan, I'd love to see Boise come to the Big House.
  15. Clint T
    15. Posted by Clint T Fri Jun 19, 2009 12:22 pm EDT

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    Boise State is a joke. I remember back in 2005 when everybody predicted they would beat UGA in Athens. After they threw picks on about their first 4 passes, people saw that they were a joke. Bottom line is that they play in a terrible conference and play a weak schedule. Put them in the Pac 10 and they finish no better than 6th every year. If they start putting the big boys on their schedule, then there will be no more undefeated seasons for them. Do yourself a favor Boise, keep playing and beating up on the weaklings, keep going undefeated, and keep your delusions that you're a top program. Leave the real football to the real teams.
  16. Mile's Knee
    16. Posted by Mile's Knee Fri Jun 19, 2009 4:43 pm EDT

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    Finally some acknowledgement that BSU will have to play some tougher opponents...for money. I guess padding the schedule to look good is unaffordable these days.
  17. Cman
    17. Posted by Cman Fri Jun 19, 2009 5:10 pm EDT

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    BSU plays one of the weakest schedules in America! What a joke.
  18. David F
    18. Posted by David F Fri Jun 19, 2009 5:50 pm EDT

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    Stop comparing BSU to App State. They are in different divisions and therefore apples to oranges. In Division 1-A Boise has the best record.
  19. that guy that did that thing
    19. Posted by that guy that did that thing Fri Jun 19, 2009 7:24 pm EDT

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    The Georgia game was a nightmare. Boise was unprepared, but most teams playing in Athens are unprepared. As far as Washington goes, Boise was humbled. They went in fresh off the Fiesta Bowl adn were too arrogant. Washington's Defense had only two goals: double-team Ian johnson the ENTIRE game, and force unproven Taylor Tharp to throw. They succeeded, and Tharp made too many mistakes at the worst possible moments (i.e; throwing INT in Wash's Red Zone). I don't recall Washington being at the bottom of teh PAC-10 that year, either. The other games listed are not telling the whole story. How many BCS teams have played in Boise? What is the Bronco record AT HOME against BCS teams?
    BTW, Clint T, if Boise was in the PAC-10. The only close games would be Oregon and Oregon St. I dont think they can beat USC, but they would stomp every other PAC-10 team.
  20. that guy that did that thing
    20. Posted by that guy that did that thing Fri Jun 19, 2009 7:38 pm EDT

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    Update: The following are Boise State Vs BCS teams played in Boise (including the Humanitarian Bowl in Boise)
    Conference (Boise record vs): Opponent with year - Result
    Big 12 (1-0): Iowa St in 2000 - Boise Win
    Pac-10 (2-1): Oregon St in 2006 - Boise Win; Oregon St in 2004 - Boise Win; Washington St in 2001 - Boise Loss
    Boise has not played any other BCS Conference teams IN BOISE.
    Overall, Boise is 3-1 against BCS teams playing in Boise. So, I wouldn't agree that Boise can't compete with a BCS team. They just can't play on the road. Then again, we did beat Oregon IN Eugene.
  21. squirrelyearl
    21. Posted by squirrelyearl Sat Jun 20, 2009 2:02 pm EDT

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    Michigan was terrible last season and is going to stay terrible under Rich Rod. Why do people give that Utah victory so much credit?
  22. bostonbaron
    22. Posted by bostonbaron Sat Jun 20, 2009 8:53 pm EDT

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    hey you guys you forgot BC win on the blue carpet.
  23. bobby
    23. Posted by bobby Sun Jun 21, 2009 10:14 pm EDT

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    boise state plays 9 big 6 teams in 9 years that is the point everyone is trying to make big six teams play that many every year so what if a team can win one game a year against good teams that is not a championship team. the same goes for utah and to continue to give these teams credit and compair thier records to big six teams is apples and oranges. if you want to be called champs then you need to lobby to get into a championship type schedule even if it means lobbing a good conf. to let you in or like miami and fsu when they were independents play the best that you can find dont hide in a weak conf. with a weak schedule then cry you should be the champion
  24. Go Utes!
    24. Posted by Go Utes! Mon Jun 22, 2009 11:48 am EDT

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    okay robert d, you want to talk about weak schedules look at Florida 8 home games 4 road games. At home this year they have Charleston Southern, Troy, Florida International, Tennesse. Their 4 road games are at Kentucky, at LSU, at South Carolina and at Mississippi State (Rivals pre season ranking 75 out of 120). Not a real strong schedule especially considering most teams will usually win most their games at home. Now lets look at Alabama 7 homes games and 5 road games. They have Florida International (Rivals pre season ranking 92 out of 120), North Texas(Rivals Pre season ranking 120 out of 120), Arkansas, Chattanooga at home. Their road games are at Virgina Tech, at Mississippi, at Mississippi State, at Kentucky, at Auburn. USC at least plays half their games on the road and half at home. Same with Utah. So until the SEC actually plays the same number of games at home as they do on the road. Their is no reason to start with the weak schedule argument. The SEC is overrated and it shows from last years Sugar Bowl Alabama had no idea what happened in the first few minutes of the game. If the teams were willing to travel outside the south then there would be more validity to your point.
  25. rudyhoops4
    25. Posted by rudyhoops4 Mon Jun 22, 2009 12:06 pm EDT

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    Check it out. The juice is worth the squeeze. Instant news updates, devoted fan poll, message boards, conference pissing matches, the whole 9 yards

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