Tue Nov 18, 2008 8:16 am EST
I usually don't post the requested draft ballot ahead of my official Blog Poll ballot on Wednesday morning, but since I'm working a little bit ahead and considering a major leap in the top five, I thought I'd put this week's effort out there for critique.
The entire sheet is below the jump, and yes, there are teams with losses ranked ahead of undefeated Alabama. This isn't because I'm bowled over by "style points," or anything of that stripe, and it doesn't matter now because there's still the SEC Championship to play. But compare the Tide's victims to those of Florida and Texas -- in terms of overall strength of schedule and especially opponents' winning percentage, you can't tell the difference between Alabama's slate and Utah's:
Ls=Losses • Margin=Average Margin of Victory
Sked=Strength of Schedule (according to Jeff Sagarin) • Oppt. %=Opponents' winning percentage

Let me have it below.
Dr. Saturday is a college football blog edited by Matt Hinton. Email him tips and feedback.

Posted Feb 3 2010
RivalsMinute: Bama wins the title
Posted Feb 3 2010
Posted Feb 3 2010
Edited by MJD
Edited by 'Duk
Edited by J.E. Skeets
Edited by Greg Wyshynski
Edited by Matt Hinton
Edited by Chris Chase
Edited by Jay Busbee
Edited by Jay Busbee
Edited by Steve Cofield
Edited by Chris Chase
Edited by Chris Chase
Edited by Brooks Peck
Edited by Andy Behrens
46 Comments
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Meanwhile, Texas is one play away from going 4-0 through a brutal stretch of games, and Florida has thoroughly dominated the same caliber of schools that Bama squeaks by.
Viva la revolucion!
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OU pasted both NU and KU.
Tech rolled against KU, and got taken to OT against NU.
Exactly what metric are you using to determine Kansas is a better win for either Tech or Oklahoma? Preseason ranking?
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=)
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For OU, I have no explanation for why beating KU by 14 at home is more impressive than what the Sooners did to Huskers (e.g., effectively win the game in the first 6 minutes and spent the last 90% of the contest in cruise control), but I am not sure it would affect OU's overall ranking.
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Re: Kansas over Nebraska, this is basically a holdover from recent weeks that I just overlooked. I don't see a major difference in KU and Neb (Nebraska would be higher if I ranked that far down, because of the head to head win, but itsn't necessarily much better of a win), and switching them for Oklahoma and Tech wouldn't change either team's circumstances. With the teams in blue, I'm looking for quantity as much as quality.
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I'd much rather have a team that's 3-1 against top 12 teams (with all four games in consecutive weeks, no less) and destroying anyone else they play than one that's 1-0 against the top 20 and has had several close calls against lesser competition. If Texas or Florida played Alabama ten times, I doubt Alabama even wins three.
I also think that encouraging teams to get wimpy schedules so they have a better chance of going unbeaten cheapens the regular season more than allowing a team that plays a bunch of very tough games and loses one to get back in the discussion would.
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The only basis to me in ranking Florida over Alabama is the absolute bludgeoning they have put on people. But the opposite side of the coin is, Florida has also lost the only close game they were in.
I'd swap Florida and Bama but keep Texas as number 2.
As for the rest of the poll... Trying to sort out teams below 10 does not seem like fun, so I will not quibble with any of those picks.
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FSU's losses should be WF, BC, GT from worst to best.
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"if texas or florida played alabama ten times, i doubt alabama even wins three." yes, well, is we decided the mythical national championship by supposition, usc would never lose. alabama will play florida once, just as texas has played texas tech. college football: your de facto playoff, in action, every week.
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I REALLY like that you don't give Ball State and BYU top 10 spots just for not losing. That's the kind of thing that irks me the most about media/coaches polls.
Lastly, kinda funny to see Georgia and OSU at those fringe top 10 spots and angling for Capital One Bowl births after all the preseason buzz. Kinda funny how wrong everyone (me included) can be.
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some some ground rules of sensibility apply, including relative conference strength. the system tries to self-correct. the polls look right to me: Ala. and TTech are 1 & 2 -- given the sec west is down, give the nod to tech. florida follows, since they lost to ole miss and ala. didn't (only florida may change my mind). as for the rest, there's football yet to play.
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Avoiding losses is important. But so is proving that you can beat good teams. Texas has done the latter, Alabama hasn't really. I can see arguments either way, but I don't think putting Texas ahead of Bama is at all crazy.
(Moot point, in the end; if Alabama beats Florida in the SEC title game that's a big enough win that Texas can't make up for the loss, and if Alabama loses they won't have anywhere near the quality wins that Texas has.)
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Can we agree that had Florida lost to Ole Miss LAST week, no one would dream of moving them up so high? If you're weighing these ranking on the merits of a whole season, how does the alternative make any sense?
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top 5 right now,
1.florida
2.usc
3.ttech
4.texas
5.ou
6.bama
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Florida looks deadly and their "quality wins" deserve a ton of respect, but you have to balance that out with the fact that they got beat by OLE MISS and FREAKING HOUSTON NUTT at HOME! To me, that is alot worse than only beating underachieving teams by a couple touchdowns. You have to take schedule and "style points" into account, but avoiding losses should be the priority. [Herm Edwards/] Hello! You play the game to win! [/Herm Edwards].
Florida is still in the national title picture and they deserve to be. They may well beat Alabama in the SEC title game. But right now, I think the Tide have to be ranked ahead of the Gators, 'Horns, Sooners, Trojans, et. al.
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Roll Tide motherf*ckers.
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florida is #1, while usc is barely behind at #2. this system predicts that oklahoma might be favored to win a game at home against texas tech (and that texas is the 3rd best team in the country, i think). obviously, it is not perfect, but i like to follow it as an estimate (adjusted by reality and perceptions, such as the knowledge that fsu had starters suspended made them much more likely to lose against boston college.
yes, i am an avid college football fan. i prefer the current system. the regular season and every game has so much more meaning than if a tournament was held at the end of the season. the tournament/super bowl does not show who is the best team. it just provides a tournament winner.
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Florida is #1, while USC is barely behind at #2. This system predicts that Oklahoma might be favored to win a game at Home against Texas Tech (and that Texas is the 3rd best team in the country, I think). Obviously, it is not perfect, but I like to follow it as an estimate (adjusted by reality and perceptions, such as the knowledge that FSU had starters suspended made them much more likely to lose against Boston College.
Yes, I am an avid college football fan. I prefer the current system. The regular season and every game has so much more meaning than if a tournament was held at the end of the season. The tournament/super bowl does not show who is the best team. It just provides a tournament winner.
However, if you wanted a slightly different feel (before 2015) that might have a chance:
"Classic Bowl + 1" - The fools last year insisted on a 4-team playoff in the Bowls, despite the knowledge that Pac-10 and Big 10 (and others) would reject this. Instead, go with the Classic Bowls. ACC plays in the Orange Bowl. SEC champion plays in the Sugar Bowl. PAC-10 plays the Big 10 in the Rose Bowl. After those games are played (assuring some good out of conference games) run the numbers and determine the top 2 teams. Take those teams and send them to the Championship about a week later. This could work with the current contracts, I believe. It would only add a single game for 2 teams (not much extra wear and tear) and would not last any longer than the current season (allowing players to focus on their studies is the concern of a playoff, I think).
This would then help people to continue to care about random games (California played Tennessee, so I care about how California does even thought I am a Florida fan). It would even make the other bowls MORE important, since each one could have an effect on the final rankings. Now THAT sounds exciting. Imagine how many games you might follow (higher ratings = good for leagues and TV) and how much you would discuss the system (especially if you don't like it?).
Personally, I would allow Sagarin to use his Rankings (combination of ELO-Chess and Predictor) or Predictor rather than the ELO-Chess that is forced upon him. Winning a game by 30 or 50 points is a more convincing victory than winning by 1. And, yes, Home Field advantage can make a difference in college football.
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2.t tech
3.ou
4.tex
5.usc
6.alabama
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2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. Florida
5. Oklahoma
6. USC
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