Dr. Saturday - NCAAF

Now in its fourth year, the Blog Poll is a weekly effort of dozens of college football-centric Web sites representing a wide array of schools under the oversight of founder/manager/guru Brian Cook at MGoBlog, and now appears on CBS Sportsline. It’s an effort to provide a more rigorous check on the mainstream polls that actually, like, count toward the mythical championship, and enthusiastically shines a light on its voters' biases. But mainly, it’s fun.

Oh man, if I thought last week was nasty, imagine the quasi-hell that Alabama fans are about to make my Thanksgiving for dropping the Tide all the way to No. 6. But I don't see that I have any choice here:

One of the dissenting comments last week, when Bama was fourth, didn't like the idea that it was "OK to lose," and any undefeated team should be ranked ahead of any comparable one-loss team. That seems like the conventional wisdom. But obviously that's not true in every case: Practically nobody outside of some rigid, lunatic fringe that I'm not even aware of ranks Utah ahead of every one-loss team, or Boise State, or Ball State, though none of those teams have lost. I don't, either, because those teams' schedules don't compare to teams playing the highest level of competition.

Frankly, as of this moment, Alabama's doesn't either. Look at the winning percentage of the Tide's opponents to date: 46.4 percent is an atrocious number compared to the competition here, the worst in the SEC and one of the worst major conference numbers in the country; USC's opponents have a significantly better mark even with Washington and Washington State on the schedule (the Huskies' and Cougars' combined 1-20 mark against I-A competition is rivaled by Bama opponents Tulane and Western Kentucky, which are 2-17). Clemson's collapse means 'Bama has no major non-conference wins, and only two -- Georgia and Ole Miss (the Rebels replacing LSU after last week's win in Baton Rouge) -- over appreciably good competition. There is almost no practical difference here between Alabama's resumé and Utah's -- the strengths of schedule (according to Jeff Sagarin) and margins of victory are nearly identical, and the Utes' three/four best wins might be slightly better than Alabama's. So it's either raise Utah or drop the Tide; I chose the latter.

I'm sure there will be a lot of responses along the lines of "Any undefeated team in the SEC rabble rabble rabble" and probably some guns fired into the air, and that's true: When Alabama completes an undefeated season by beating Florida in the SEC Championship, they'll earn more than enough value from that win to move up. For now, blame Clemson, Arkansas, Tennessee, LSU and Mississippi State for failing to live up to their end of the deal.

In other sure-to-please news, Texas does indeed remain ahead of Oklahoma for reasons that have nothing to do with having beaten Oklahoma (though that doesn't hurt): The Longhorns have faced a slightly tougher schedule -- their opponents have the highest collective winning percentage of any schedule in the nation -- and their three/four best wins are the tiniest sliver of a hair better than Oklahoma's. This time next week, though, if the Sooners beat Oklahoma State, expect the corresponding boost in strength of schedule and quality wins to push OU in front.

ACC Row is splitting up a bit, as Georgia Tech, Boston College and Florida State relegate Miami, Wake Forest and Maryland, respectively, to the also-ran bin, also home now to North Carolina after the Tar Heels' weird collapse against N.C. State. The Jackets, Eagles and Noles are clearly ahead of the pack at the moment, so I can't wait to see how that gets screwed up beyond belief on this final weekend.

digg delicious
more

171 Comments

Post a Comment
  1. LD
    1. Posted by LD Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:01 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Meh. It's Iron Bowl week. There's more important things to think about than a blog poll ... like unleashing a battalion of fanged and armored robot minions in the direction of war buzzard.
  2. Ummmm
    2. Posted by Ummmm Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:34 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    I think I'm missing something with regard to how you rank the teams. For USC, why is Cal a better win than Oregon when Oregon is ranked higher than Cal (assuming your "waiting" section is in order) ?
  3. Uncle Grandfather
    3. Posted by Uncle Grandfather Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:59 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    dont be surprised when the ACC goes 3-1 against the supposed "Elite" SEC. Maybe 4-0 but Florida State beating Florida is stretching it too much, but who knows anything can happen in a rivalry game.
  4. alex
    4. Posted by alex Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:48 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Alabama will tank it against Florida. Too much presh-shaw
  5. 12andCounting
    5. Posted by 12andCounting Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:25 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    I don't think Bama should be as low as 6 but it is true that the competition this year has been below par. Before the season Alabama looked like they had a pretty tough schedule but Clemson, Georgia, Tennessee, LSU and Auburn have proven to be consistently craptacular this year. Thanks for the help guys. SEC SEC SEC?
  6. two_smellyfeet
    6. Posted by two_smellyfeet Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:38 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Thomas T,
    Don't be surprised if the ACC goes 1-3 or 0-4 against the SEC.
  7. Jams
    7. Posted by Jams Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:14 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Doc,
    I would like an insightful weighting of what is important in strength of schedule. For example, which of these three-team gauntlets would be more difficult to make it through:
    (1) 6-6, 6-6, 6-6
    (2) 8-4, 8-4, 2-10
    (3) 10-2, 6-6, 2-10
    (4) 10-2, 8-4, 0-12
    While the opponents on all four schedules have the same collective win-loss record (18-18), it seems clear to me that they get more difficult as you go down the list. Since a top-10 team would be expected to easily handle any 0-12, 2-10, or even 6-6 team with relative ease, I would assert that such games shouldn't be weighted very differently, whereas the value of a win over a 10-2 team should seriously up one's strength of schedule.
    Maybe I'm underestimating the difficulty of playing average-to-bad teams, but doesn't it mean more if a team beats one great team, as opposed to a few semi-decent teams?
    I ask because it seems like strength of schedule rankings are probably oversimplified.
  8. Subedei
    8. Posted by Subedei Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:46 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    I don't even like Oklahoma, but why is everyone forgetting that they smoked Cincinatti and beat TCU by a decent margin? The former victory is against a team that, fair or not, is getting into a BCS game. The latter team is probably(And, according to you) better than the former. These seem significant. Maybe I missed something.
  9. AgnosticTheocrat
    9. Posted by AgnosticTheocrat Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:47 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    As always, barring the first 6 weeks when your ballots are like a Pollack painting, your ballot is the most reasoned and logical of the lot.
    I do have one question, however. Do you truly believe that USC's big win over OSU as sufficiently impressive to cancel out their loss to Oregon State and PSU's blow out win? Or do you consider Iowa a far less impressive team than I do?
  10. Rosco
    10. Posted by Rosco Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:42 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Another idiot with no clue. There is only one stat that matters and that is wins and losses. In the NCAA it is usually WHEN you lose that really counts rather than to whom you lose. Many of the teams that have poor winning %s in the SEC have lost virtually all of their games within the SEC. With Auburn only having 5 wins I suppose it will hurt UA in your poll even if they win big since AU is certainly not a quality opponent this year. PSU has Ohio State as their quality win. Wow OSU got destroyed by USC and has struggled against virtually everyone else they have played. Alabama beat many of the same schools that Florida beat and beat the team that beat FL.
    I have an idea! Let's all pretend that this poll means a hill of beans and that the moron has a bit of a clue. Too bad Notre Dame is doing so poorly or they would be #1 in this poll with 3 losses.
  11. W B
    11. Posted by W B Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:45 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    lol....In 1992 Alabama was picked on all year for not being an offensive juggernaut. For not winning big and displaying crazy offensive stats...pffffttttt. They went ahead and smoked the unbeatable Miami Hurricanes.
    Yep, seems like writers and such only appreciate big offense these days.
  12. Kevin O
    12. Posted by Kevin O Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:50 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Your computer rankings and algorithms are a waste of time. Neither can calculate heart and emotion, which is the ultimate x factor in college football. Funny, all Alabama did was beat every team that was put in front of them up until this point in time. They play in one of the hardest conference in the NCAA and are undefeated and you compare them to "Utah."
    Is the Deja vu all over again? All they waaaaay back in 1992 they were getting the same grief. All the media pundits back then were saying let FSU play Miami again in a rematch. Their argument was that Alabama had not beaten anybody worth a damn or so that is what most "Experts," thought. Here we are 16 years later and it is the same song and dance. Go ahead and vote against Nick Saban, ha. Experts Smekperts, all this yak yak yak is tiresome. Let Utah come into the SEC and play Alabama's schedule and see if they are undefeated. Something tells me, not so much. But you keep on pushing the buttons and getting the ire of Alabama fans up so they can call you names. I know it is good sport and they don't know that you are pretty much saying this stuff to get a reaction out of them and they are being good little puppets.
    However, like I said, throw the computer rankings out the window. it is a waste of time. Logic takes a back seat to emotions in college football. If you don't know this, then you need a new gig. You dig?
  13. CBell
    13. Posted by CBell Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:19 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Yes, WHEN teams lose seems to matter most. If you lose early, you're rewarded best when you rebound...hence Oklahoma and Florida...and rebounding is graded easier than winning.
    Winning teams take their starters out when they're winning, rebounding teams leave their starters in to post 70 on their opponents...Oklahoma and Florida, take a bow. Put your team against four national title contenders one week after another and read what everyone has to say. Texas won't come out without a loss in that stretch...that's what they said, yet worn down yet digging deep with less than a minute to go after a more than horrific first half, they almost proved everyone wrong. Texas didn't, they could have if this or that was done differently, but they didn't. Their next three games won't give them enough "brownie" points to sway the voters away from Florida and Oklahoma even though Texas beat Oklahoma on a neutral field when some might say home field advantage might make a difference. Let's turn our heads to the rest of Oklahoma's schedule and see how they rebounded. They went on to beat four (now) unranked teams. I'm not impressed.
    Speaking of home field advantage, let's ask Florida to explain the loss on home field to Mississippi. Was it a fluke or could any unranked 7-4 team walk into the "Swamp" and beat them? No, it probably won't happen again, but no one thought Ole Miss would have been the team to do it either. Let's turn our heads to the rest of their schedule and see how they rebounded. They went on to beat three (now) unranked teams. I'm not impressed.
    Rebounding can make a difference for a game called basketball.
    Swaying the minds of the voters now would probably be like seeing a Brent Musberger broadcast a game where he actually wanted to see Texas win.
    So until Oklahoma loses to OK State, then Tech loses to Missouri, and voters remember Florida's loss to unranked Mississippi at home, I'll have to wait...patiently...and remind you that rebounds are a statistic for basketball, not football.
  14. Robert B
    14. Posted by Robert B Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:46 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    If OU played Texas in a REAL neutral field. OU would spank the shorthorns like they beat Texas Tech!!!!!!!! PLAYING IN TEXAS IS NOT NEUTRAL !!!!!!
  15. CBell
    15. Posted by CBell Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:19 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Seeing as how half the tickets were sold to OU fans and the other half were sold to Texas fans makes it neutral, it's also about half-way between the schools, which also makes it neutral. If there were more Texas fans at the game, that means OU fans sold their ticket to them...maybe they already knew what was going to happen.
    I guess math isn't something they teach at OU.
    Hopefully you can read: http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/recap?gid=200810110024
  16. Marcus G
    16. Posted by Marcus G Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:12 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Can people please stop saying "There is only one stat that matters and that is wins and losses," or similar things? In a four game stretch, Texas played four of the twelve best teams in the country that are not Texas. They won three of those games, and lost the fourth at the last second on the road. Alabama has played only one opponent of that quality this season. If Alabama played the same schedule as Texas, they would most likely have at least one loss. Unless all teams are of equal quality, it is necessary to consider the quality of opponents before assessing teams by record. If all teams were of equal quality, any undefeated team would merely be a statistical anomaly.
  17. Glock
    17. Posted by Glock Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:00 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    All ya'll are retards WASHINGTON HUSKIES NATIONAL CHAMPS BABY 08-09
  18. James A
    18. Posted by James A Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:21 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Robert B, are you out of your mind??? The cotton bowl is actually 5 miles closer to norman, and if you were a true OU fan, you would notice that the stadium is split at the 50 yard line between burnt orange and crimson. OU did not, can not, and would not spank the horns, and would lose to Tech if they played in Lubbock (remember last year?). One other thing, if you think that the Cotton Bowl is not a neutral site, you may be right because more OU players are from the state of Texas, and maybe that gives them an edge. Bottom line, OU lost and trying to run up the score on teams for style points (going for it on 4th down when you are up 42 points), and haing Bob Stoops whine on TV about their BCS position should be enough to erase the BCS voters memories of the spanking Texas gave OU.
  19. Fridge
    19. Posted by Fridge Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:02 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Meh, too much talk about the top, it's all going to work itself out... Florida/Bama winner deserves their spot, and if oklahoma puts away osu/miz then their schedule will line up almost perfectly with texas' right down to where the horns are pointing at arkansas and the sooners have tcu and cincy... they'll have earned their spot too. The only really interesting scenario is if florida loses to the noles and then puts bama away. Status quo would give us a big 12 rematch in the title game, and given the computers' opinions, the voters would probably have to send USC or penn state all the way to #1 to change things. Tasty bit of chaos there...
  20. travis
    20. Posted by travis Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:07 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    You can only drop alabama down in the rankings on this blog...go to espn.com to see how how your stupid a@# opinions mean to the real truth of the matter..we are number one...it dont matter how many f!%king equations you punch in, we are number one because we beat teams that were supposed to be number one....roll tide!!!
  21. Mark
    21. Posted by Mark Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:03 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Good call, James A. Robert B must be an idiot and never checked the OU roster for all the players from Texas. OU is a great football program....the State of OK, however, is not a leading producer of high school football talent for the college level. The State of Texas, on the other hand, produces more players than are needed for their flagship college programs, so many end up out of State. No problem, of course, give the young men a chance wherever they can get it. As far as coaches, Bob Stoops is a dweeb, Mack Brown is a little slow, and that look on the fool Mike Leach's face as he was going to the locker room at half-time of the OU game was priceless!! I thought he was going to cry. Suddenly all his childish eccentricities, like his little pirate fetish, seemed really stupid, didn't they? Yeah, when you are winning, people will exalt your weirdness, but when you lose they will laugh at your juvenile immaturity. Oh, but that dropped interception in the UT-TT game with 8 seconds left and the failed coverage on Crabtree with 1 second left, after the amazing second-half comeback following one of the flattest first-half in UT memory, will haunt UT for a long time. That's football.
  22. cooltpmd
    22. Posted by cooltpmd Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:29 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Congratulations!!! Matt found a job where knowledge and reason are not neccessary to be successful. There is no way anyone can RANK Florida above Alabama until the victory is on the board. Bama is undefeated in SEC play and beat Ole Miss, a team that handed Florida a loss ... at home no less. You may think Florida is better, be my guess ... but until Bama has a loss, noone can prove they are better.
  23. tasha s
    23. Posted by tasha s Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:01 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    ou gonna play for the championship doo dah
    ou gonna play for the champioship yippie doo dah day
    texass had its shot
    crabtree took it away
    ou playing for the championship yippie doo dah day
    hahahahaha..rotflmfao.......hahahahahaha
  24. skylark
    24. Posted by skylark Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:51 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Here's my issue. What happens when a lower ranked team beats a higher ranked team? The latter DROPs in the poles! The Tide beat Clemson who was ranked 9. Knocked GA out of the top 5 at GA! The 'Dogs were all the rave to be a title contendor.... AL beat Ole Miss, who just happened to beat the gators. They also went on to beat LSU at LSU who was still at least in the top 20. Yeah, their not about style points, but lets not forget that when these games were played, they were HUGE! Most of these teams seemed to fall apart after being beat by Bama. Nobody was afraid to rank these teams before they were beat by the Tide.... I'm not saying the Bama is the absolute best team in the nation. That will be decided in the next few weeks. To me, where you are ranked should also be decided by where the team you beat was ranked at the time. Not what they're ranked now!
  25. A Yahoo! User
    25. Posted by A Yahoo! User Thu Nov 27, 2008 10:09 am EST

    Report Abuse

    Considering half of Oklahomas players are from texas, yes the game was on a neutral field Robert B!

Dr. Saturday

Add to My Yahoo! RSS

Matt Hinton

Dr. Saturday is a college football blog edited by Matt Hinton. Email him tips and feedback.

Related Photo Gallery

Y! Sports Blogs

Dr. Saturday Recent Readers