Dr. Saturday - NCAAF

Now in its fifth year, the Blog Poll is a weekly effort of dozens of college football-centric Web sites representing a wide array of schools under the oversight of founder/manager/guru Brian Cook at MGoBlog, and now appears on CBS Sportsline. It’s an effort to provide a more rigorous check on the mainstream polls that actually, like, count toward the mythical championship, and enthusiastically shines a light on its voters' biases. But mainly, it’s fun. The entire poll will be released later today.

This week's ballot is brought to you by the state song of Iowa, "The Song of Iowa," which reminds readers to:

See yonders fields of tasseled corn, Iowa in Iowa,
Where plenty fills her golden horn, Iowa in Iowa,
See how her wonderous praries shine.
To yonder sunset’s purpling line,
O! happy land, O! land of mine, Iowa, O! Iowa.

As always, the lineup is constructed exclusively on resumé to date, with no regard to predictions, abstract notions of inherent strength or any previous rankings this season; it's only reflective of games played so far. The full resumé chart for this week's poll is below the jump.

Iowa! Yes, I was persuaded by the Hawkeye-loving computers that the object of their affection has navigated a tougher schedule than the other six unbeaten teams, including Florida and Alabama, but that was true last week, too, when I kept Iowa No. 3 because of their much narrower margins of victory. What turned the tide for Iowa in my mind this week, after a couple close calls by the Gators and Tide against mediocre opponents, was a reconsideration of how well the Hawkeyes stack up in their biggest games:

Iowa has beaten six BCS-conference teams with .500 or better records, twice as many as any other undefeated team except Alabama (with four; see resumé chart below), and handled the best of those with roughly the same aplomb as the SEC killers, whose big overall margins of victory came via blowouts against cupcakes. The best arguments against the Hawkeyes right now are their close calls against their only pushovers, Northern Iowa and Arkansas State, but I'm willing to call it a a, 1b and 1c situation and give Iowa the benefit of the doubt for putting more, better skins on the wall. But that's just this week -- the call is close and certainly won't survive Florida beating Georgia or Alabama beating LSU over the next two weeks, when the Hawkeyes' schedule lightens considerably against Northwestern and Indiana.

+/–: Average margin of victory; SoS: Strength of schedule (calculated by Jeff Sagarin); Oppt %: Combined winning percentage all opponents.

As always, everything will be completely different next week.

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19 Comments

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  1. Austen
    1. Posted by Austen Wed Oct 28, 2009 1:10 pm EDT

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    I do not see how anyone can vote for any team as number #1 in the polls when they play Troy, Charleston Southern and FIU on their schedule as the Gators have. If you truly believe your team is the best in the country why not play worthy opponents, what are you afraid of? Do not know how the voters allow you to get away with this, I really don't.
  2. tumbyjngh
    2. Posted by tumbyjngh Wed Oct 28, 2009 1:20 pm EDT

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    #1: What you're afraid of is that you're more likely to lose against a worthy opponent, and end up behind the team who decided to schedule a bunch of cupcakes. No, it's not fair or even entertaining, but if most teams are doing it you'd be silly not to do it, too.
  3. Michael G
    3. Posted by Michael G Wed Oct 28, 2009 1:44 pm EDT

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    Wheres the integrity?
  4. Leifericson
    4. Posted by Leifericson Wed Oct 28, 2009 1:59 pm EDT

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    The SEC plays 5-6 tough games, so they play some cupcakes to even it out.
    BTW, Troy is ranked higher than a few teams in the big 10? (Purdue, Northwestern, Indiana, according to the Sagarin rankings.)
  5. Leifericson
    5. Posted by Leifericson Wed Oct 28, 2009 2:10 pm EDT

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    You should be outraged at a team like Penn state.
    Not only do they get to play 2 of those teams (and the two worst ones), then they go out and schedule
    all 4 games with teams much worse than Troy!
    At least the SEC teams have to play a bunch of top 20 teams...????
  6. Leifericson
    6. Posted by Leifericson Wed Oct 28, 2009 2:15 pm EDT

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    Also, Florida DOES play Florida state.
    So the best Sunbelt team, and FSU is not exactly a weak ooc!!
    It's not strong either....
    I would call it average.
  7. Colin
    7. Posted by Colin Wed Oct 28, 2009 2:28 pm EDT

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    "FSU is not exactly a weak ooc."
    Have you seen Florida State play this year, by chance?
  8. Uncle Rico
    8. Posted by Uncle Rico Wed Oct 28, 2009 3:33 pm EDT

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    Let's all get real for once. This is a down year for ALL divisions. There is not one dominant team in all of college football. All teams appear very vulnerable and on the brink of losing one or two games. A playoff in a year like this would be a much better scenario.
  9. mangere_bridge
    9. Posted by mangere_bridge Wed Oct 28, 2009 4:00 pm EDT

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    Weird that you've suddenly started putting all the undefeated teams above the all the 1-loss teams: one would think that the top 1-loss teams should creep up as the season goes along, since that loss is becoming a smaller and smaller proportion of their season. USC has 3 or 4 quality wins and one loss. Boise State has precisely one quality win (sorry Tulsa). That's a huge difference in strength of schedule to explain away. The only justifications I can see are either that only W-L matters (in which case everyone should schedule all cupcakes, all the time), or that beating a bad team by 40 is much better evidence that you're a good team than is beating a bad team by 20 (in which case you at least have Bob Stoops on your side of the argument).
  10. lee j
    10. Posted by lee j Wed Oct 28, 2009 4:49 pm EDT

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    Every FBS team should be REQUIRED to play at least 1 non-conf game on the road....neutral site doesn't count.
  11. Alaska Hokie
    11. Posted by Alaska Hokie Wed Oct 28, 2009 4:59 pm EDT

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    mangere_bridge, it's not weird if you've been tracking Mr. Hinton's picks all year.
  12. beerlover
    12. Posted by beerlover Wed Oct 28, 2009 6:19 pm EDT

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    So why is Arizona, for instance, above Ohio State? Almost the same SoS, comparable "best" losses, similar 2nd loss. Arizona's best wins are Stanford and Oregon St, OSU's are Wisconsin and Minnesota, both of who are better than Arizona's.
  13. Clifford B
    13. Posted by Clifford B Wed Oct 28, 2009 9:13 pm EDT

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    to beerlover, I am an OSU fan and think they could be much better than people think. That being said, neither Wisconsin or Minnesota played any good at all against us. I thought Illinois was a better win, though they are obviously in a tailspin now. OSU still has a lot to prove in the PSU-Iowa-Michigan stretch.
  14. Kevin O
    14. Posted by Kevin O Wed Oct 28, 2009 9:31 pm EDT

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    where would USC be ranked if their jerseys said iowa instead? no real wins and a huge loss would put iowa 15-25 but since it is usc, top 10!
  15. Festus
    15. Posted by Festus Wed Oct 28, 2009 10:10 pm EDT

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    @#2: "All the other teams" are NOT doing it. All the SEC teams are doing it. In the Pac 10, every team plays every other team, every year. No one CAN schedule more than two cupcakes, and in fact only the Arizona schools ever schedule that many. Much as I dislike USC, they have never scheduled a 1-AA team. So the "everyone is doing it" line is weak sauce.
  16. beerlover
    16. Posted by beerlover Wed Oct 28, 2009 11:18 pm EDT

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    @13, that's not the standard that's used here. It's not entirely how impressive a performance the win was, it's about the best/2nd/3rd/etc teams that each team up there has beaten. OSU has beaten more higher quality opponents with similar losses and even has a significantly higher margin of victory compared to Arizona, yet Arizona is 6 spots higher. The whole point of this is supposed to be that it looks at what actually happened on the field, but this CLEARLY is not. Arizona is just an example.
    Look at WVU vs. OSU. OSU's "best" loss is better than WVU's. OSU has a better SoS, MOV, and opponent win %. Compare the wins: in my opinion Wisconsin UConn, Minn Marshall, IND ECU, Navy Colorado, and Toledo Syracuse. So every single thing about OSU is better than WVU except for the one extra loss, where WVU has played fewer games. So the one extra loss is enough to more than cancel out every other factor considered here?
    This isn't OSU griping, this is griping that this poll absolutely fails to do what it promises, using some examples of teams I'm particularly familiar with. OSU should be ahead of both WVU and Arizona, but they're not - the question is why.
  17. beerlover
    17. Posted by beerlover Wed Oct 28, 2009 11:28 pm EDT

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    Why didn't it post the greater than signs? Ugh. 2nd paragraph should be Wisconsin (greater than) UConn, etc.
  18. A!
    18. Posted by A! Thu Oct 29, 2009 12:54 am EDT

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    All those SEC homers crack me up
    by the end of the regular season, the SEC will have played 25 games vs MAC, C-USA and SunBelt also-rans PLUS another 11 against I-AA teams... that's exactly 75% of their league's out of conference schedule (I omitted the 2 games vs Troy- the only team to be consistent this decade)
    When you ask one of their pundits why they schedule so many cupcakes, they reply with "The SEC plays 5-6 tough games, so they play some cupcakes to even it out" (see #4 above)
    Ask them how they know those teams are tough, and you get "ten SEC teams will be bowl eligible"
    Exactly HOW will they get to the 6 wins to make them bowl eligible? SEC pundits will never admit to it, but here it goes.
    (Take note of the formula PAC-10; Big 12, Big Ten are getting it; ACC & Big East are over scheduling the I-AA teams)
    **get 2-3 wins vs the fellow bottom feeders (Ky, Miss St, Ark, Vandy, Miss, Tenn), then get 3-4 wins vs cupcakes**
    NOTE: Bottom feeders NEVER schedule OOC top 25 teams (computers prefer easy win over tough loss)
    Kentucky: MIami (OH), Louisville, East Kentucky, La-Monroe
    Vandy: West Carolina, Rice (a loss to Army & Ga Tech next week means Vandy stays home for the Holidays)
    Tenn: West Kentucky, Ohio, Memphis (Lost to UCLA-who is winless in Pac10)
    Miss St: Jackson St, Mid Tenn (Houston and Ga Tech were scheduled before their current rise in talent)
    Ole Miss: Memphis, Southeast La, UAB, Northern Arizona (better brush after two cupcakes)
    Arkansas: Missouri St, Tex A&M, East Mich, Troy
    That's is a total of TWO worthy opponents OUT OF 24... a whopping 8%
    By the way, its the same formula that DELIVERS the SEC champ to the Mythical Championship game each of the past 3 years, via artificially inflated SOS ratings.
    Being a math guy, I will give props to the SEC brass for cracking the BCS formula
  19. Studmuffin
    19. Posted by Studmuffin Thu Oct 29, 2009 6:48 am EDT

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    #18 wait till end of year and when all is said an done an SEC school will reign. At least this year the other conferences won't embarrass themselves and be sending Ohio State to face the only true football conference there has ever been. You are right about the formula that they have and its called WINNING not whining as people like you do. All I ask of the rest of the conference hopefuls is send your best because we do not want you coming back at the end of the year crying how the ratings are fix and the SEC plays no one because they will be the #1 conference ...........AGAIN! ...................."Losers always complain that they did their best, Winners go home and bang the prom queen."

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