Dr. Saturday - NCAAF

Now in its fifth year, the Blog Poll is a weekly effort of dozens of college football-centric Web sites representing a wide array of schools under the oversight of founder/manager/guru Brian Cook at MGoBlog, and now appears on CBS Sportsline. It’s an effort to provide a more rigorous check on the mainstream polls that actually, like, count toward the mythical championship, and enthusiastically shines a light on its voters' biases. But mainly, it’s fun.

This week's ballot is brought to you by Fox News anchor and proud Ole Miss alum Shepard Smith, who reminds readers that the South has already risen, so there's no need to keep chanting about it, a'ight?

As always, the lineup is constructed exclusively on resumé to date, with no regard to predictions, abstract notions of inherent strength or any previous rankings this season; it's only reflective of games played so far.

Because the facts keep changing. With the exception of a short, solid run with Alabama, I've swapped my No. 1 team on a near-weekly basis for various, usually fairly arbitrary reasons, and I'm back with the SEC after a brief fling with Iowa last week. The Hawkeyes' big strength-of-schedule advantage took a hit with the addition of some relatively dead weight (Indiana) and bad losses by previous victims Iowa State and Michigan, which is on the verge of becoming more of a liability on the Hawkeyes' resumé than an asset. Meanwhile, Florida's schedule improved with the addition of Georgia as a respectable win and the continued resurgence of Tennessee.

The Gators are still holding on to a top-10 win at otherwise undefeated LSU, as well, a problem at the moment for Alabama: No schedule has been hit harder the last few weeks than the Tide's, with the value of their opening win over Virginia Tech plummeting in the wake of two straight Hokie losses, leaving 'Bama with zero wins over a team that hasn't been beaten on at least two other occasions.

Because quantity still matters. I'm not sure anyone is delivering better quality on the field or on paper right now than Texas, but with Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Missouri all sliding into mediocrity, the 'Horns still haven't done enough in-conference to completely overcome their shameful non-conference slate, highlighted by a win at Wyoming. Iowa may be squeaking out ugly wins by the hair of its chinstrap, but the Hawkeyes do have six wins over "Big Six" conference teams sitting at .500 or better, more than any other team in the country, and have three wins over ranked teams, best among teams with fewer than two losses. If Iowa gets by Ohio State in two weeks en route to 12-0, the sheer number of quality wins on its resumé is going to be hard to ignore, even if they're ugly ones.

Because quality still matters, too. USC was humiliated on an unprecedented scale at Oregon, but the Trojans' three big road wins at Cal, Ohio State and Notre Dame are still as good a troika as any team has managed this year, and are still worth elevating to me above the very meh skins collected so far by Penn State and Pittsburgh, despite the extra tick in the loss column for SC. Ditto Miami, the only team to beat Georgia Tech and one of the teams (along with Texas) that could really benefit from an Oklahoma rally down the stretch, to boost the value of its win over the Sooners.

The full resumé chart is below the jump, and as always, everything will be completely different next week.

+/–: Average margin of victory; SoS: Strength of schedule (calculated by Jeff Sagarin); Oppt %: Combined winning percentage all opponents.

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25 Comments

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  1. Rodeo Romper
    1. Posted by Rodeo Romper Wed Nov 04, 2009 2:25 pm EST

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    Georgia counts as a respectable win this year? Stupid SEC homerism...
  2. alex P
    2. Posted by alex P Wed Nov 04, 2009 2:35 pm EST

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    Boise St. really doesn't get enough cred. A decisive win over Oregon is twice as good as any of Alabama's wins, better than Iowa's, and arguably better than Texas's wins.
  3. herbert e
    3. Posted by herbert e Wed Nov 04, 2009 3:19 pm EST

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    what an idiot i guess you are one of the ones that voted the gaytors to play in the nc game last year after losing to an unranked team. sec lover the sec sux. key wins s car tenn miss boy these teams culdnt beat baylor. TEXAS will win the nc then you will drink the kool aid
  4. Chase Stuart
    4. Posted by Chase Stuart Wed Nov 04, 2009 3:29 pm EST

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    I don't understand why Cincy is ranked behind Iowa. I have to imagine their small difference in SOS would be overcome by the huge difference in margin of victory, no? If not, why not? I could maybe understand it if Iowa was ranked ahead of Alabama, but the argument for Cincy is the same as the argument for 'Bama: Cincy/Bama have huge MOVs but slightly worse SOSs than Iowa. So why sandwich Iowa between them?
    (Note: I love this blog. This isn't directed as much towards Matt as it is to pollsters in general.)
  5. scottyc5
    5. Posted by scottyc5 Wed Nov 04, 2009 3:38 pm EST

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    Saying Boise St. beat Oregon "decisively" is like saying the one legged kid beat the retarded kid "decisively" in a foot race. That game was awful to watch and both offenses were horrible that night. I give BSU the credit for the win, but I agree they are the worst of the undefeateds.
    I just hope BSU gets a chance to prove itself in a bowl game this year. And by mean "prove itself," I mean get smoked by a middle tier BCS school just so we can stop talking about them. And if TCU runs the table and doesn't stay ahead of Boise, it will be a travesty.
  6. oneiric
    6. Posted by oneiric Wed Nov 04, 2009 3:39 pm EST

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    Okay once again it looks like the voice of reason must be heard....bear in my mind I am a ND fan so my views may seem a lil bias but I think ya'll will see the logic in it.
    First off Florida won last year. They deserve to be number one and they have the record to prove it. Until they lose that's who it is and should be. I'll make it even easier by saying that if they lose just one game then drop them out of BCS contention. Harsh I know but that should appease all the florida haters.
    Now on to the rest of the bunch 'Bama, Texas, Iowa, Cincy, Oregon.....I hate the BCS, why do I hate it? Two reasons: TCU, Boise State. Each can go undefeated, everyone else can have a blemish on their record and neither will play in the title game. In Boise's case its sad that Oregon will play in the chip game way before they will. I remember a Boise team that beat Okla., that has been good for quite a few years and has to struggle just to break the top 8 much less get a national title shot. And all this because they don't play for a BCS conference. Lets be serious here!! You mean to tell me that a USC team that has two losses can eventually jump both of those schools should either of them lose once and USC win the rest of their games? I think I'm gonna puke.
    As much as I hate to admit anything concerning the BCS conferences Florida (so long as they continue to win) gives us at least a glimmer of legitmancy as far as the BullCrapSeries goes. Hate it if you want but you know it to be true
  7. jarred
    7. Posted by jarred Wed Nov 04, 2009 3:45 pm EST

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    TCU and Cincinatti should switch. TCU dominating BYU and beating Clemson is more impressive than Cincy wins over USF or Oregon State. Cincy could pass them up going undefeated the rest of the season but right now its TCU.
    The rest of it looks quite good.
  8. A!
    8. Posted by A! Wed Nov 04, 2009 4:13 pm EST

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    Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics
    Florida, Cinci, TCU, Penn St, Pitt, Okla St, Wisconsin and South Florida have inflated Margin of Victory numbers thanks to blow outs of inept Div I-AA teams
    Florida should not be atop this list next week. The Gators will beat down hapless Vandy (2-7) while Bama takes on LSU (7-1)
  9. Leifericson
    9. Posted by Leifericson Wed Nov 04, 2009 4:18 pm EST

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    Wins matter more than points.
    Say it, think it, learn it.
    Iowa is winning.
    I remember all the people who would say the Patriots would lose(when they won 3-4 super bowls) because they usually would win by 3 or so. They were wrong.
    The Patriots won all 3 super bowls by 3 I think.
    It's the same in college.
    Wins matter, points.... don't.
  10. dethwing
    10. Posted by dethwing Wed Nov 04, 2009 4:46 pm EST

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    "The Gators will beat down hapless Vandy (2-7) while Bama takes on LSU (7-1) "
    So I guess you've forgotten where that "-1" came from?
  11. JeffB
    11. Posted by JeffB Wed Nov 04, 2009 5:00 pm EST

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    Shouldn't the "worst" loss in the above chart be to the worst actual team? Why is ND's "worst" loss USC and their "2nd" is to Michigan? USC is clearly better than Michigan, so isn't Michigan ND's "worst" loss?
  12. Chase Stuart
    12. Posted by Chase Stuart Wed Nov 04, 2009 5:21 pm EST

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    A!,
    I can only assume Iowa escaped your wrath because their MOV isn't inflated by their blow out of an inept FCS team. Far better to barely beat Northern Iowa than to inflate your MOV and disrespect the sport.
  13. beerlover
    13. Posted by beerlover Wed Nov 04, 2009 6:46 pm EST

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    Once again the results in your poll don't match the very criteria you have listed. There is exactly one thing Arizona has better than Ohio State: SoS. EVERYTHING ELSE is on OSU's side, including TWO EXTRA WINS, and yet Arizona is at 16 while OSU is at 20. This whole thing is a good idea but it's executed like a pile of feces. Again.
  14. mangere_bridge
    14. Posted by mangere_bridge Wed Nov 04, 2009 7:11 pm EST

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    I think Texas finally, finally have the wins to justify a spot in the top three. Both Texas and Iowa have 3.5 quality wins; maybe Iowa's non-quality wins are a bit better, but there's no contest if it comes to style points.
    Georgia Tech seem way underrated. If one respects Florida State (who, after all, do have road wins at BYU and North Carolina and have only lost to good teams), they have one more quality win than Oregon, two more than TCU and three more than Boise State. Might even sneak them ahead of Cincinnati, though I still have no real grasp on how good the Big East is this year.
    Oregon notwithstanding, it's getting very hard to justify a top ten spot for Boise without violating the principle of taking the whole season into account.
    1. Florida
    2. Alabama
    3. Texas
    4. Iowa
    5. Georgia Tech
    6. Cincinnati
    7. Oregon
    8. USC
    9. TCU
    10. Pitt
  15. bobby
    15. Posted by bobby Wed Nov 04, 2009 9:08 pm EST

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    again for all you boise state fans you scheduled out of conf games against miami-ohio, bowling green, and cal-davis you do not deserve to get to a championship game when you play a total of one ranked team a year and to put this team in that discussion is an insult to iowa, and cinni. and tcu is not much better they play two ranked teams
  16. A!
    16. Posted by A! Wed Nov 04, 2009 11:09 pm EST

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    Chase,
    Iowa's MOV is the lowest of any team with fewer than two losses... that speaks for itself. I wouldn't put the Hawkeyes in the top 5.
  17. Bluntz
    17. Posted by Bluntz Thu Nov 05, 2009 12:32 am EST

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    You peoples polls are a joke. USC lost to a team that has won 3 games out of their last 22 games, have you people forgotten about Washington beating them and then the spanking they got last weekend by Oregon with Oregon racking up 625 yards on offense. In USC's last three games they have allowed their opponents to score 110 pts. There is no way they should be listed in the top 10 of anyones poll, so what they beat an average Notre Dame team and a below average Ohio State team, they couldn't beat a team that has lost 19 of their last 22 games so why should they be in a BCS bowl game when there are many quality teams out there that don't even have a single loss not to mention the teams with only one loss, they are tied for 6th place in their conference.
    Boise State should not be ranked in any poll below Oregon. Boise State beat Oregon and that's a fact. A victory is a victory and a loss is a loss. Oregon lost and Boise State won, end of story. I have a feeling that Boise State would probably beat Oregon again should they happen to play but they won't so we have to go by the stats that we have before us.
    Dr. Gobber Saturday has VA. Tech ranked @ 18. Hello! they just lost to North Carolina, they barely squeeked by Nebraska at home winning on the last play of the game. Nebraska is 5-3 with their most recent loss to lowly Iowa State. Where does this ranking come from?????? Maybe Outer Space.
    I'm sure that Texas will be in the National Title game with the winner of the SEC. People were talking trash about Texas at their last trip to the National Championship game but yet they won over USC and that game was at the Rose Bowl in USC's backyard. You can trash Texas all you want but they have taken care of their business and are deserving, they win when they need to.
  18. Mike C
    18. Posted by Mike C Thu Nov 05, 2009 2:31 am EST

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    Still can't figure why Tennessee isn't getting more credit than South Carolina after handing them their butts last week... This is a team that's given up one offensive TD in the last 3 games, and has played as well as anyone in the country the last 3 games.
    Perhaps it all comes crashing down to earth vs. schizophrenic Ole Miss in two weeks, but would you really bet against them versus anyone outside the top 15 right now?
  19. bobby
    19. Posted by bobby Thu Nov 05, 2009 5:54 am EST

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    mike c you said tennesse played as well as anyone in the country for thier last three games. i do believe they lost 1 of those three and we are talking about a team that is 2-3 in thier conf and lost to ucla right. ah wait i get it you have that same we played one good game attitude that boise state fans seem to have lol
  20. herbert e
    20. Posted by herbert e Thu Nov 05, 2009 8:39 am EST

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    TEXAS not only wins when it has to they win all the time. the sec is the only conference that can lose to an unranked team at home and play in the nc game. could ohio state or iowa couldnt usc or oregon couldnt TEXAS or oklahomacouldnt. face it the sec should win the nc most of the time they let them play in it every year. we all know any of the top 10 teams can beat the other on any day getting to play in the nc game gives you the best shot to win it. sec is only team to lose to unranked teamat home and win the nc they are the only team with 2 losses and a loss in their conference chamionship game to win it. sec are just guzzlers. they press loves them even though they cant beat unrranked team at their own field.
  21. Studmuffin
    21. Posted by Studmuffin Thu Nov 05, 2009 9:27 am EST

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    Post #14...........yea lets send Ohio State again this year. A team who has NEVER beaten a SEC school in 8 or 9 tries. There are High School teams in the south that can beat Ohio State. The only team with a shot to beat the SEC is Texas.............and they are a fine team and if not Florida or Alabama I would hope it was them.
  22. Jared
    22. Posted by Jared Thu Nov 05, 2009 10:21 am EST

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    Each of you are forgetting the whole reason why the BCS was created....MONEY! The BCS wants teams playing in it's bowls that generate revenue and if your team doesn't then you don't play in their bowl games. That's why you will never see a Boise State vs TCU national championship game. The BCS will get far less money for advertising for that game than a Texas vs Florida game. The bigger the school in the game the more fans they have the more haters they have the more people you have watching the game the more money the BCS makes. Just face it we the fans can argue who is the best all we want but it's the suits at the BCS who decide. The only way the BCS will wake up is if the teams that they decide to go to the NC game say thanks for the offer but we don't want to play in your bowl game.
  23. J-Vas
    23. Posted by J-Vas Thu Nov 05, 2009 10:26 am EST

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    Iowa hasn't done anything, IMO, but beat PSU (and I am not sure if PSU is any good). The problem with computers, as we all know, is they can't form an opinion. If anyone watched the Indiana game and the Northwestern game AND you're a Iowa fan should be nervous this week.
    My upset pick this week is Northwestern over Iowa.
  24. J-Vas
    24. Posted by J-Vas Thu Nov 05, 2009 2:46 pm EST

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    I feel that one of the problems in college football (one of many) is you dont have every conference playing conference championship games. Notre Dame needs to join a conference already for me to even respect them, seriously.
  25. beerlover
    25. Posted by beerlover Sat Nov 07, 2009 2:25 am EST

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    21, I assume you were aiming at me and not what you actually said. Allow me to deconstruct the utter failure that is your post:
    1. I didn't say OSU should be in the national title game or even go to a BCS game. I said they should be ranked ahead of Arizona as an example of how bad this "poll" is. I'm not sure how you can argue with this, other than being retarded. Using the criteria given in this and all the other posts in this series, there is no reason whatsoever for OSU to be ranked lower than Arizona. None. Period.
    2. OSU has, in fact, beaten SEC teams. What morons like you don't remember or know is that OSU has played SEC teams OUTSIDE of bowls and has won in regular season games. The idiotic record you douches repeat includes the national title against LSU (OSU was an underdog), national title against Florida (no excuse there), and two consecutive games against a Lou Holtz-led South Carolina (see if you can remember the record - hint OSU wasn't the B10 champ), including one under Tressel and one under Cooper the year that Cooper was fired. That's the last four bowl games off the top of my head, and the only ones in the past decade. Without looking them up, can you name any others? Any at all? No, you can't, because you're a moron. Can you name the bowls where OSU was actually favored? No, you can't, because you're a moron. Can you name the other bowl games OSU has played recently?
    08 - narrowly lost to Texas as an underdog. 07 - lost to LSU as an underdog. 06 - lost to Florida as a favorite. 05 - Beat Notre Dame as a favorite. 04 - Beat Oklahoma State (I'd have to look up favorite/underdog). 03 - Beat Kansas State (I'd have to look up to be sure but I think favorite). 02 - Beat Miami as an underdog (in the national championship). 01 - narrowly lost to South Carolina (have to look it up but I think underdog). 00 - lost to South Carolina (have to look it up). 99 - no bowl. 98 - Beat Texas A&M as a favorite. 97 - lost to Florida State (have to look it up). 96 - Beat Arizona State as an underdog. So let's see - since 96 OSU is 6-6 in bowl games. Wow, yeah, OSU is terrible. Or maybe anyone who says stuff like this is just an uninformed idiot.

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