Dr. Saturday - NCAAF

This is the real prize, don't ya know ...

Now in its fourth year, the Blog Poll is a weekly effort of dozens of college football-centric Web sites representing a wide array of schools under the oversight of founder/manager/guru Brian Cook at MGoBlog, and now appears on CBS Sportsline. It’s an effort to provide a more rigorous check on the mainstream polls that actually, like, count toward the mythical championship, and enthusiastically shines a light on its voters' biases. But mainly, it’s fun.

If there is one position I am absolutely certain about at the end of this chaotic year, it's Florida at No. 1. The Gators defeated 10 bowl teams (second-best was Oklahoma with seven), faced the second-toughest schedule in the nation based on opponents' collective winning percentage and won by the highest average margin of victory. Eleven of their 13 wins were by 23 points or more, with only one rock-bottom embarrassment on the schedule (The Citadel, which UF trounced by 51) and four wins over teams that finished in my top 15, twice as many as anyone else except Southern Cal, which beat three top-15 outfits. Florida beat two top five teams, Oklahoma and Alabama, by double digits. As I said on Friday, a missed extra point against Ole Miss -- which subsequently won nine and finished in everyone's top 15 its own self -- isn't nearly enough to bring a resumé that strong to earth. The Gators are No. 1, and for all of the (legitimate) talk of a split title, it's not close.

As for the teams that were snubbed from the mythical championship process, I throw my hands up. I don't see any foolproof way to distinguish between USC, Texas and Utah, and almost resent having to do it. For the record: All four teams deserved a chance at the title, and should be read as 2a, 2b and 2c here rather than two, three and four.

But the entry form doesn't give voters that option, so I came to that order -- USC, Texas, Utah -- the way I've tended to break ties all year: Who has the best wins? Texas arguably has the single best win, over Oklahoma, and Utah has a pair of strong wins over Alabama and TCU. But neither can quite match the three unadulterated blowouts the Trojans put on the best teams on their schedule. Considering the lopsided scores, USC had the best pair of wins (Penn State and Ohio State), the best trio of wins (PSU, OSU and Oregon), the best quartet of wins (PSU, OSU, Oregon, Cal) and so on, all the way down the schedule until you get to the Washington teams. The Huskies and Cougars are absolute death according to two of the indicators I use in the abstract, strength of schedule and opponents' combined winning percentage, but USC also beat them 125-0, so I decided not to let them diminish the Trojans' excellence at the top. Again, this can go any way you want it to:

I reiterate that the most underrated team by far in the final mainstream polls was Texas Tech, which was hit with a much more severe punishment than Alabama and Penn State for getting waxed in the bowl game, despite identical 11-2 records and virtually identical season arcs (strong start, tough late loss to ruin a perfect season, sour finish in the bowl). The Raiders' win over Texas remains about as impressive as any single victory anyone collected all season, and Oklahoma State, Nebraska and Kansas aren't bad heads to have on your wall, either -- especially compared to Ohio State and Georgia, which for some reason leapt Tech in the AP and Coaches polls for ... I dunno, beating Michigan State? Only losing to Texas by three? I'm not sure what's going on with Tech in those polls, but late fade aside, the Raiders had a legitimate top-10 season in my opinion. Even if you heavily weigh your order to the end of the season (which I do not) you certainly can't separate them from Alabama and Penn State; other than maybe TCU, I don't know who has any claim to move in front of that trio, which looks about the same to me.

I spent most of November arguing against the sanctity of head-to-head, but it is useful here among very closely-ordered teams with no real separation on one another: Boise State is one ahead of Oregon because Boise beat Oregon; Florida State is one ahead of Virginia Tech because FSU beat Virginia Tech; the Hokies are one ahead of Cincinnati because they beat Cincy; Oregon State is one ahead of Pittsburgh because OSU beat Pitt; Cal is one ahead of Michigan State (a revision from my draft ballot) because Cal beat MSU; the Spartans are one ahead of Iowa because they beat Iowa, somehow. You've got the West Virginia-North Carolina-Boston College-Wake Forest win chain going in the 'Waiting' section, too. That's about as much discussion as those teams deserve.

Per Pollmaster Brian's instructions, next year's Blog Poll is cancelled: Spots 1 through 24 will be occupied by Tim Tebow, and Duke will be No. 25 throughout the season. Thanks for reading and for suggestions all year, and especially for accepting the idea that East Carolina can be No. 1, at least temporarily.

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  1. GorgeForeman
    1. Posted by GorgeForeman Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:38 pm EDT

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    A well-reasoned, articulate argument you put forth, Doc. Still, I simply cannot understand any logic that would place Utah at no. 4. A completely legit schedule, they run the table, and they pants Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. That same resume would mean the MNC for any--ANY--school from any of the big-six conferences. If this thing can't be split, then it seems fairly straightforward that Utah gets the nod.
  2. Aaron
    2. Posted by Aaron Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:47 pm EDT

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    Florida got beat by an average Ole Miss team and you don't think Utah could beat Florida? Of course they could. Utah is #1 in my book. Florida is #3 and USC is #2. Texas is #4 and Oklahoma is #5. Penn State is #6 and Ohio State #7. I'll catch flak for Ohio State at #7 but after seeing them in that Texas game I don't think any other team left could be them.
  3. 4.0 Point Stance
    3. Posted by 4.0 Point Stance Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:55 pm EDT

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    Is the Blog Poll really cancelled or is that a joke? It's too early on Monday for this "humor."
  4. JCCW Jerry
    4. Posted by JCCW Jerry Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:10 pm EDT

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    Matt, is beating Michigan st. really that impressive? That's the only top-25 win either Georgia or Ohio st. can claim. Is that (and the one fewer defeat) really enough to offset Ole Miss beating both Florida and Texas Tech? Boise beating Oregon, with two fewer losses to boot? Hell, Oregon St. beating USC and Cal?
    I realize iIshould've spoken up after the draft ballot, and it's all hair-splitting after those first nine teams, but Georgia in particular looks way overvalued here to me.
  5. Year2
    5. Posted by Year2 Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:28 pm EDT

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    @Airon
    Ole Miss is in everyone's top 15. That qualifies as above average.
  6. peabird15
    6. Posted by peabird15 Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:05 pm EDT

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    It really doesn't matter what the Utah/USC/Texas folks think....UF is #1 and it's in the books!
    SWEET!
  7. Clam
    7. Posted by Clam Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:57 pm EDT

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    Texas Tech started the year beating 4 horrendous OOC teams, Eastern Washington, Nevada, SMU, and Mass and concluded the season losing 2 of 3 games with Baylor snatching defeat from the jaws of victory in the third game. Top Ten teams finish strong, not in the unimpressive fashion that TT did. By the head-to-head standard, they should be behind Mississippi who played a higher quality schedule. TT should be thankful the spotlight was on Utah's program and body of work and not their own.
  8. The World Famous Butt Pirate
    8. Posted by The World Famous Butt Pirate Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:03 pm EDT

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    HAHA, Texas Tech is 7 spots above Ole Miss.
  9. CuseFanInSoCal
    9. Posted by CuseFanInSoCal Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:48 pm EDT

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    -- I reiterate that the most underrated team by far in the final mainstream polls was Texas Tech, which was hit with a much more severe punishment than Alabama and Penn State for getting waxed in the bowl game, despite identical 11-2 records and virtually identical season arcs (strong start, tough late loss to ruin a perfect season, sour finish in the bowl). --
    I really disagree with this one, mostly because getting blown out by a borderline top-25 team going in (Mississippi) is much, much worse than getting blown out by a borderline top-5 team going in (USC or Utah). Having said that, I think Alabama has been overrated since they beat Georgia, and were what I thought they were -- the SEC version of 2007 Kansas (great on one side of the ball, okay on the other, and took advantage of a favorable schedule and a down year for their division to run to the top of the polls).
  10. Joshgator
    10. Posted by Joshgator Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:41 pm EDT

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    3. Posted by Airon Mon Jan 12, 2009 12:48 pm EST Report Abuse
    Florida got beat by an average Ole Miss team and you don't think Utah could beat Florida?
    First of all, that "average" Ole Miss team's four losses were by a COMBINED 19 points with each one a touchdown or less. And they beat UF by a blocked extra point. Although we need a playoff (so that we don't have to debate endlessly about who should be #1), the selection of the teams for the bowls was done PRIOR to the Alabama-Utah game and at that point, Utah had played a VERY weak schedule and was unproven. Meanwhile, to quote from the Doc above: The Gators defeated TEN BOWL TEAMS (second-best was Oklahoma with seven), faced the SECOND-TOUGHEST SCHEDULE in the nation based on opponents' collective winning percentage and won by the HIGHEST MARGIN OF VICTORY...and four wins over teams that finished in my top 15, twice as many as anyone else except Southern Cal, which beat three top-15 outfits. Florida beat TWO TOP FIVE teams, Oklahoma and Alabama, by double digits." UF played a MUCH stronger schedule than Utah. To say that Utah would beat UF b/c UF lost to Ole Miss is asinine. And before you say "well, we beat Alabama by more points than UF did"....First of all, you only won by 3 points more (scored on a late field goal with 2:49 left in the game), otherwise it would be the SAME MOV. Second, when UF played Bama, Percy Harvin and TWO key offensive linemen and TWO key defensive linemen were injured (about 1/4 of the 22 starters including our star receiver/running back) and when Utah played Bama, Bama was without Andre Smith (player of the year) and his backup was injured in the 1st Qtr against Utah. Not to mention the fact that when UF/Bama played, everything was on the line...the winner would go to the MNC and the loser would get NOTHING!!!! In the game against Utah, Bama had NOTHING to play for except pride.....they had NO SHOT at even a split of the title even if they blew Utah to smithereens. Watch the UF/Bama game and see how hard Bama played and then watch the Utah game....Bama wasn't really there. If you had been playing Bama for the chance to go the MNC (and maybe if they had Andre Smith), Bama would have beaten Utah....but that did not happen. However, with the exception of the win over Alabama (which was not played prior to the selection of the teams for the MNC game) who was Utah's biggest win...TCU???, Oregon State??? by 3 in each game...and New Mexico???? PLEASE....I'm going to bust a gut laughing. Florida played TEN bowl teams (prior to bowl selection) 6 of whom won their bowl games...whereas Utah played ONLY FIVE (Air Force who lost to Houston, Oregon State who barely beat Pitt 3-0 in their bowl game, Colorado State, TCU, and BYU who lost to Arizona). Utah had a great year...but they did NOT have a strong schedule. And if going undefeated is the sole criteria for being the NCs, then why wasn't Auburn the NCs (or at least a split) in 2004...they were undefeated (as were USC and OK), but were left out of the NC game. They didn't get a split title either and they were undefeated.
  11. Zachary K
    11. Posted by Zachary K Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:00 pm EDT

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    Ass-pillager: "HAHA, Texas Tech is 7 spots above Ole Miss."
    Might have something to do with the numbers in the loss column. Or maybe South Carolina belongs over Ole Miss? Can I get a holla for Wake Forest as national champs?
  12. CuseFanInSoCal
    12. Posted by CuseFanInSoCal Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:48 pm EDT

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    Josh - 2004 Auburn did not get a split because no one outside of the state of Alabama thought Auburn was even close to USC, despite both being undefeated (Utah and Boise also finished undefeated that season). Whereas I think even the most devoted SEC fans would concede that the Trojans or Utes would give the Gators a game.
  13. Clam
    13. Posted by Clam Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:57 pm EDT

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    The operative word in post #3 was that Utah COULD beat Florida based on the success of Ol' Miss on the road and the post reflected one individual's opinion. Auburn should have played Utah in the Fiesta Bowl in '04 but once again, the BCS league assignments got in the way.
  14. CuseFanInSoCal
    14. Posted by CuseFanInSoCal Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:48 pm EDT

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    Under the current BCS rules, 2004 Utah probably would have played #4 Texas (guaranteed a spot as BCS #4; in the Fiesta due to the Fiesta having dibs on Big 12 teams when a Big 12 team is in the title game) in the Fiesta bowl; moving USC/Oklahoma from the Orange to the BCS title game almost certainly makes the Rose Bowl #5 Cal/#13 Michigan instead of Texas/Michigan. We probably get the very nearly annual ACC-Big East Orange Bowl (between #16 FSU and #21 Pitt), but it's hard to project who ends up opposite Auburn in the Sugar (the non-SEC available teams would have been #8 Virginia Tech, #9 Boise State, #10 Louisville, #12 Iowa, and #14 Miami).
    Really, what made a mess of things was that the title game was in the Orange Bowl.
  15. Clam
    15. Posted by Clam Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:57 pm EDT

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    CuseFan-I wonder though if Auburn could/should have declined the Sugar Bowl berth to play a better opponent in the Fiesta Bowl with Utah. Auburn and Utah each had lesser opponents and Auburn was in the position of having to justify their season in a down year of the SEC and having played an OOC schedule that was ridiculous. They needed to route Virgina Tech, which they did not and their claims for No. 1 split at the time were less respectable than Utah's which played 3 BCS teams OOC and humiliated their opposition throughout the season.
  16. Broncosox fan
    16. Posted by Broncosox fan Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:13 pm EDT

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    utah in 4th? even after beating alabama soundly, they still can't get any love? i mean, yes, texas beat osu, but they barely beat them while usc took them down 35-3 earlier this year. florida does deserve #1, but it should be utah at #2, usc at #3, texas at #4, and oklahoma at #5.
    and did you seriously put texas tech at #7? not after the cotton bowl performance, you don't.
  17. Just Me
    17. Posted by Just Me Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:41 pm EDT

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    The Gators played 6 ranked teams including 2 #1 teams. Who can match that?
    UTAH? Brigham Young, TCU, and Alabama (without offensive lineman consensus All-American Andre Smith)
    USC? They beat OSU (without Chris Wells), they beat California (beat Miami without Robert Marve), the beat Penn State (who beat Oregon State which USC lost to, barely got by OSU which almost lost to Ohio University)
    Texas? Bare got by OSU, lost to Texas Tech.
    The BCS should give consideration for wins over top 25 teams each weak as they used to do with a +/- scale. Who you matters. Florida proved that.
    The Gators rule? All the rest can cry like little girls.
  18. Albert
    18. Posted by Albert Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:26 pm EDT

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    This seems to overlook that Mississippi beat Texas Tech very convincingly.............Texas Tech just hadn't played anyone with a defense as most of the Big 12 didn't.......
    Despite Rivals pick of the USC's QB af its pick as the best one in the bowls, Tebow is the best ever and still is....
  19. Patrick
    19. Posted by Patrick Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:57 pm EDT

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    OK, for the last time, the Fla gators beat not one but two number one teams in the bcs poll. Utah beat a number 11 team and ala. Can anybody else say they beat 2 number 1 teams, no. Stop whining, the best team is Fla. And they might just do it next year.
  20. Gina H
    20. Posted by Gina H Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:33 pm EDT

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    They beat ten bowl teams. Cannot say more. Utah doesn't even play high school ball. They won against Alabama because they weren't taken seriously. UF #1 easily !!!
  21. Just Me
    21. Posted by Just Me Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:41 pm EDT

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    20 No, they won because Andre Smith was not able to play. He was their best player consensus All-American, Outland Trophy winner. Even UF had its hands full with Smith. Six ranked teams and beating the regular season undefeated Alabama and the top offense in Oklahoma says enough. THE GATORS ARE THE BEST!!!
  22. THE BOD
    22. Posted by THE BOD Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:46 pm EDT

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    You can't be serious when you say Utah could beat Florida right??? Please retract and save the embarassment! The season is over and you people are still whining. USC is the only team that could give Florida a game-and I hate USC. Of course they would loose and Dirty Sanchez would be reduced to the mediocore QB he is. The nation watched the supposed all mighty Oklahoma get destroyed by Florida's D. See, in the SEC we play D. Oklahoma (in their defense) does not encounter defenses in the Big 12, so this was a shock to them. You're an idiot at best to think any other team than Florida deserves to be champs. The Vegas line right now on UF vs Utah would be Utah +24. Give it a rest. Florida would beat Utah by 40. You see, it's a Gator Nation- and you just happen to live in it !!! Deal with it !!!
  23. John
    23. Posted by John Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:39 pm EDT

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    Hey Matt, I love it! You are such a big hypocrite. You did all that fancy talk AGAINST Head-to-Head in the Oklahoma/Texas debate, and then you mention Head-to-Head as the REASON half the teams are now ranked ahead of one another???? By the way I'm not a Texas Fan. I am a Alabama Fan. The reason Texas Tech should fall is because (1) they got blowout/destroyed by Oklahoma, and (2) They couldn't even beat a 4 loss SEC team in their bowl game. Yeah, I know Texas Tech beat Texas on a last second dramatic play. But everybody knows now that is was LUCK, not talent that they had the huge upset over a tired Texas Team. At the time, Texas was playing their 4th Top Ten Team in a row and they were on the road. Did any other team ever do that and win all 4 games??? One last thing: I do think Florida has to get the #1 ranking. But Utah, USC, and Texas did NOT get a fair chance to play for the championship. GO PLAYOFF SYSTEM!! (Maybe someday?)
  24. hal c
    24. Posted by hal c Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:15 pm EDT

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    We do need a playoff system-no doubt about that-extend it into February-so I can have a longer football season-after the BCS, the NFL Playoffs and the Superbowl life ends until next football season.
    As for Florida-what is the old saying-"Offense sells tickets-but Defense wins Championships". The offense gets all the hype-Tebow, Bradford, USC,Utes,Texas,Texas Tech-but the bottom line is-the top point scoring team-Oklahoma could only put up 14 points against Florida-including a 1st and goal-couldn't put it over the line in 4 attempts-in the SEC-we play Defense-look at the bowl records-SEC is number one.
  25. stewbacca
    25. Posted by stewbacca Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:46 pm EDT

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    "tebow is the best ever and still is.... "
    pretty bold claim for a guy who will never take a snap in the nfl (unless miami drafts him for the wildcat). nice qb in the florida system, nice guy...probably should have been a tight end.

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