Dr. Saturday - NCAAF

Now in its fifth year, the Blog Poll is a weekly effort of dozens of college football-centric Web sites representing a wide array of schools under the oversight of founder/manager/guru Brian Cook at MGoBlog, and now appears on CBS Sportsline. It’s an effort to provide a more rigorous check on the mainstream polls that actually, like, count toward the mythical championship, and enthusiastically shines a light on its voters' biases. But mainly, it’s fun.

This week's ballot is brought to you by Alabama natives The Pierces, who celebrate their native state's return to the No. 1 slot and sum up the burgeoning theme at the top of the polls:

Nothing thrills us anymore
No one kills us anymore
Life is such a chore
When it's … Boring (when it's boring)

Sad but true: Until the now-unavoidable SEC Championship blockbuster between Alabama and Florida, this season is dangerously close to jumping the shark after the tumultuous championship intrigue of the last two years. It's the "Big Three" at the top until further notice, and it's becoming less and less likely that notice is ever coming.

Neither Oregon nor Iowa takes the big, awkward tumble here that they did in the mainstream polls, which were apparently just looking for the right opportunity to cut the off-brand interlopers down to size and seized on bad losses to the brainiac contingent at Stanford and Northwestern, respectively, as sufficient justification to pull out the knives: Both the AP and Coaches polls docked Iowa seven spots for falling to the Wildcats at home, and dropped the Ducks seven and eight spots, respectively, for their flop in Palo Alto. The fact that Oregon not only fell behind USC on those ballots, but fell significantly behind just one week after reducing the Trojans to dust -- and will almost certainly remain behind if both teams win out -- is an instant discredit to the entire operation.

Both the Ducks and Hawkeyes were undervalued in those polls to begin with, and both deserve to remain in the top 10 based on a collection of wins as impressive as any team in the country, including the SEC frontrunners -- Oregon dealt USC its worst beating of the decade, Utah its only loss of the season and Cal a cold-water shower re: the Bears' second-class status in the conference; Iowa is still the only team with three wins over teams in this week's BCS top 25 (Arizona, Penn State, Wisconsin). USC is in the same broad category with quality wins over Ohio State, Oregon State, Notre Dame and Cal -- all but Oregon State on the road -- but hasn't done (and won't do) anything to overrule its loss in Eugene as far as the Trojans' position by Oregon is concerned.

On the other end of the scheduling scale, the trio of Oklahoma State, Wisconsin and Penn State remain very unpersuasive despite their solid records. As best I can tell, those three teams' best wins are Georgia, Fresno State and Northwestern, respectively, and they're a combined 0-6 against teams ranked in the top 20, accounting for all their losses; actually, they're a big reason some of those teams are in the top 20 to begin with. The best you can say about the Cowboys, Badgers and Lions at this point is that they're not easily toppled by the rabble that makes up the overwhelming majority of their schedules.

But far and away the worst schedule of any outfit in the top 25 belongs to Utah: The Utes have faced two winning teams, Oregon and Air Force, and fell to the much better of the pair. Louisville may be even less valuable to the strength of the Utes' otherwise awful non-conference schedule than Michigan turned out to be last year.

As always, everything will be completely different next week; the full resumé chart is below.

+/–: Average margin of victory; SoS: Strength of schedule (calculated by Jeff Sagarin); Oppt %: Combined winning percentage all opponents. Teams in bold are ranked in this week's BCS top 25; italics notes teams from non-BCS conferences or BCS conference teams with losing records.

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18 Comments

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  1. CB
    1. Posted by CB Wed Nov 11, 2009 12:48 pm EST

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    How exactly is ND still receiving any attention with zero signature wins?
  2. David E
    2. Posted by David E Wed Nov 11, 2009 1:29 pm EST

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    I think the case can be made for LSU to join the OSU, PSU, Wisc group of not easily toppled by rabble, but nothing impressive about them except the SEC of their conference.
    This season feels like a parallel to the Florida-Ohio State season, where OSU and Michigan were 1-2, the Big 10 was top conference, there was talk of a rematch in the title game after the de facto Big 10 title game, and in the end the Big 10 was exposed as an overhyped conference. The Big 10 has yet to recover. The SEC feels the same this year and it will be interesting to see what happens if the SEC has a 1-6 bowl season capped by a title game rout. Not saying that it will happen, but it feels like the SEC is living on reputation this year and not results.
  3. Jeremy
    3. Posted by Jeremy Wed Nov 11, 2009 3:15 pm EST

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    Why did Boise lose a win in your week 10 poll? They should be 9-0, just like all the teams above them.
  4. thronedoggie
    4. Posted by thronedoggie Wed Nov 11, 2009 3:22 pm EST

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    I find it interesting that (it seems to me that) you order "best wins" by how the team is ranked NOW, rather than how the team was ranked at the time of the game.
    Or maybe I'm missing something?
  5. THRLOTS
    5. Posted by THRLOTS Wed Nov 11, 2009 3:49 pm EST

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    It's good to see that least one analyst/blogger still appreciates strength of schedule. Not only does VT have the highest SOS rating, VT also has the highest opponent winning percentage BY FAR (0.734 compared to the second highest which is 0.644). Though I'll admit that I am biased, you have to wonder why pollsters never recognize these stats. Everybody complains that teams like Florida don't play tough out of conference teams, but it's hard to blame them when teams like VT get burned for consistently playing the best teams they can find (it cost them a shot at the NC in 07, when they played LSU while OSU waltzed through a cupcake schedule). I know that the LSU game in particular showed that VT was not deserving of playing for the NC, but you have to wonder how many other posers are hiding behind weak opponents. I still don't understand why a close loss like VT's to Alabama, or LSU's to Florida and Alabama is seen as a worthy reason to drop them below the teams that play the San Jose States of the world--does anyone honestly believe Iowa or Penn State would stand a chance against the Big 3? Thus wins and losses don't show the true nature of the teams (7-2 w/ losses to two of the top 3 teams is better than 8-1 with an ugly loss and no truly impressive win--I'm talking about you Pitt and Iowa).
  6. sirkev66@...
    6. Posted by sirkev66@... Wed Nov 11, 2009 5:27 pm EST

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    Outside of inertia, why must Texas be ranked #3? TCU compares favorably to Texas and their top 2 victories (Clemson, BYU) are equal to (Ok St, Tx Tech). Texas has the advantage of a Big 12 Champ game, but at this point I haven't seen anything from Texas that would have me ranking them above TCU.
  7. A!
    7. Posted by A! Wed Nov 11, 2009 7:07 pm EST

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    Doc, for your Opp%, do you include wins vs Div I-AA opponents in this???
    Most of the teams in BcS conferences have high Opp% because their comrades have feasted on cupcakes...
    record vs Div I-AA by conf:
    12-2 ACC
    10-0 SEC, Big East
    9-0 Big 12, C-USA
    8-0 Big 10
    7-0 WAC
    7-2 MAC
    6-0 Mt West
    4-0 Pac 10
    3-1 Sun Belt
    Kentucky is a quality win? seriously, who have they beat?
    Colorado is a quality win but Colo St is not... they seem to be equally as bad.
  8. ROBERT G
    8. Posted by ROBERT G Wed Nov 11, 2009 8:35 pm EST

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    sec commissior mike slive and dave parry who orchestrates dishonest officiating at the ncaa level at college football officiating lcc are obvously feeling a lot of heat based on the excellent article by the ap's john zenor who was able to obtain a copy of slive's warning lettter to kifin of tennessee through the fredom of information act.
    the article is currently posted on the right side of the yahoo sports college football section and can be printed out.
    slive and parry obviously still think that they can continue to pull off their scams with 2 loss florida and alabama teams currently headed, undeated on paper only to an sec playoff game with the winner going to the bcs national championship and the loser going to another big payout bcs game.
    slive and parry remind us of ken lay of enron and bernie ebbers of mci worldcom and madoff who also thought that they were untouchable until we brought them down with our civil rico lawsuits.
    slive and parry and the other participants in crooked college sports enterprises have left trails of evidence so wide that even a dog with no sense of smell can follow their trails and bring them down in the civil courts.
    is it true that the correct spelling of slive's name is slime?
  9. bulletproof
    9. Posted by bulletproof Thu Nov 12, 2009 12:33 am EST

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    the cream slowly works it's way to the top...RBR
  10. Juan R
    10. Posted by Juan R Thu Nov 12, 2009 4:19 am EST

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    And yet again we meet a Gator Hater... Since when do we rank a defending Champ lower than #1 when they are undefeated? Tenn had Alabama against the ropes and tripped over their own shoelace. Tebow better show up big in the Alabama game or this guy will put Texas at #1 in the BCS title game against Florida.
  11. bulletproof
    11. Posted by bulletproof Thu Nov 12, 2009 3:09 pm EST

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    f the gators, if you really like haters!
  12. jason w
    12. Posted by jason w Thu Nov 12, 2009 4:40 pm EST

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    Hey Matt, your a true idiot. Who would you like to see? Ole' Miss? But wait! You hate their tradition right? What do you want see? I think that's a running question in this post. Stop saying stuff just to cause controversy and start writing things down and reading them before you post an article.
    Best of luck you turncoat.
  13. jason w
    13. Posted by jason w Thu Nov 12, 2009 4:44 pm EST

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    hey Juan, didn't Mississippi state and Arkansas have the Gators against the ropes? Be careful when you put things in a running blog. Honey.
  14. J R
    14. Posted by J R Thu Nov 12, 2009 6:29 pm EST

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    Still wondering why is Florida in the top 5. With the exception of Alabama they have no one on there schedule to play. Does beating "Jerry's Kids And St. Mary's school for the blind" and a couple of want to be "High school teams" Still count ?? Looking at the record of the teams that are in the SEC that they do play they are mediocre at best. 5-4 averge record is not good in the SEC and with a couple of non convencing wins with teams in which should have been blow outs and and the addition of Florida International College (0-9) Why is florida even concidered a top team... When you play no-one all year and are able to still be fresh at the end you are going to win the " big game "... Try having a schedule in which you have to earn that spot first...
  15. GregC
    15. Posted by GregC Thu Nov 12, 2009 7:58 pm EST

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    Matt - These rankings are tremendous. You do a very nice job of sorting through the nonsense.
  16. bobby
    16. Posted by bobby Thu Nov 12, 2009 8:06 pm EST

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    something is wrong when a team is 9-0 and you can not come up with but three quailty wins and one of the three list is fresno state lol boise state for nat. champs what a joke they do not even belong in a top ten. but then again you put ohio state, usc, and oregon over a 1 loss pitt
  17. jason w
    17. Posted by jason w Thu Nov 12, 2009 11:06 pm EST

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    Well put bobby #16
  18. Festus
    18. Posted by Festus Fri Nov 13, 2009 12:41 pm EST

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    Thank you Matt, for another weekly dose of intelligence and dare I say it, sanity. Oregon State and Stanford aren't even ranked in the "other" polls. Well done.

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