Dr. Saturday - NCAAF

Now in its fourth year, the Blog Poll is a weekly effort of dozens of college football-centric Web sites representing a wide array of schools under the oversight of founder/manager/guru Brian Cook at MGoBlog. It’s an effort to provide a more rigorous check on the mainstream polls that actually, like, count toward the mythical championship, and all biases are in the open. But mainly, it’s fun.

This week’s stridently merit-based ballot is brought to you by Jim Croce, who reminds readers that,

. . . after all, it's what we've done that makes us what we are.

He also reminds them to calm down if they're struggling to make sense of the apparently random offering to the right. This always creates problems at the beginning of the year, but I have two steadfast rules when it comes to in-season polls: 1. They must be internally consistent, with a consistent methodology throughout the season, and 2. They must be ranked strictly according to results. Not expected results, or any conjecture of what might happen on a neutral field or anything in that vein. It's what you've done that makes you what you are; consistent with that, this initial ballot only takes into account the performance in week one alone, and judges the value of each win based on the margin and, more importantly, on the preseason expectations of the conquered.

And if you leave a comment that says, "OMG u think La Tech is better than LSU lol" I swear I will find your house and strangle you. Louisiana Tech had a better win (over '07 SEC bowl team Mississippi State) than LSU (over I-AA Appalachian State) in the first week. And the Tigers are an exception because the Mountaineers' are an exceptional I-AA outfit -- no one else who beat up on some hapless lower-division punching bag was even considered. That goes for Ohio State, Oklahoma, Georgia and everybody else. You get in when you start winning real games. Be patient, and the results will shake out soon enough.

Here we essentially have four tiers of teams, based on who they beat Saturday (or, in a couple cases, Thursday):

• Teams 1-5: Alabama, Missouri, UCLA and East Carolina all beat presumably strong BCS conference teams that appeared in almost everybody's top 20 coming into the year; the Tide was clearly the most impressive all the way around over Clemson, a near-unanimous top ten pick, and therefore are far and away the number one team based on that performance. USC is the exception in this group: nobody expected Virginia to be good, but the Cavs were a nine-win team last year, and were completely destroyed to an extent that rivals Missouri's and UCLA's much closer wins over (we assume) better teams.

• Teams 6-10: All six teams in this group -- Utah, Fresno State, Cal, Bowling Green and Stanford -- beat respectable-to-good BCS conference teams with some moderate ambition. Other than Cal, they were also all underdogs, and in the case of the Falcons and Cardinal, may have already hit the high point of their season.

• Teams 11-16: This group -- South Carolina, Kentucky, Oregon, Oklahoma State, Arkansas State and Louisiana Tech -- beat BCS conference teams with lesser ambitions, and except for Oregon, were not all that impressive in the process. The Ducks are also the only team in this category I expect to hang around when the games get tougher: if any group that can expect a fleeting stay, it's this one: wins over N.C. State, Louisville, Washington, Mississippi State, Texas A&M et al will not hold enough value to keep them afloat for very long. For now, though, they're being compared to teams that feasted outright on cupcakes, so they get the benefit for tackling an opener with a pulse.

• Teams 18-23: All six teams here -- Texas, TCU, Vanderbilt, Florida, LSU, Ole Miss and Nebraska -- beat up on a moderately respectable, very likely bowl-bound mid-major team that conceivably could have made an upset bid (except in Vandy's case, where losing to Miami of Ohio would not have been much of a surprise to anyone). All of them took care of business comfortably.

Wake Forest and Northwestern bring up the rear because, while there may not be much virtue in hammering Baylor and Syracuse, respectively, at least the Deacons and Wildcats did, in fact, hammer those sorry offerings. And you try finding someone else not ranked above them that turned in better wins than Baylor and Syracuse.

As always, flexibility rules: I'll start the process over from scratch again next week, when everything will be completely different.

- - -
Photo of Lorenzo Washington via Getty Images.

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29 Comments

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  1. Albino Tornado
    1. Posted by Albino Tornado Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:47 pm EDT

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    One concern with your analysis: Everyone's expectations of Virginia Tech failed to note the ineffective QB play, loss of the top 4 wideouts, and zero returning running backs. Most teams would have been viewed askance in the polls with such raging questions on offense; "BEAMER BALL OMG FTW!" apparently overrode the thoughts of most.
    East Carolina isn't bad -- but Virginia Tech simply isn't that good, either.
  2. Mike
    2. Posted by Mike Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:59 pm EDT

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    Your poll is nothing more than....just pain stupid. It will be a sad day when Bama plays LSU. Rank them like you did...what are you just a jerk off. Ask Nick Sabin where he would rank LSU?
  3. TA
    3. Posted by TA Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:59 pm EDT

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    Hear that Matt? Your poll is "pain stupid!" It's so bad it actually seeps through a monitor and inflicts bodily harm on those who read it! Hornswaggle! Tomfoolery abounds! I call shenanigans!
  4. gtne91
    4. Posted by gtne91 Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:43 pm EDT

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    Doc - While I might disagree with your exact order (I would group Louisville/NC St with Baylor and Syrace so UK and USCe would be lower), this is exactly how every pollster should vote. Well, at the very least, they should start with a blank slate each week. I wouldnt necessarily mind them continueing to use preseason expectations for teams that thumped FCS teams.
    Anyway, I like it.
  5. baalforhire
    5. Posted by baalforhire Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:01 pm EDT

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    it's craptastic Matt
  6. SC_Gator
    6. Posted by SC_Gator Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:52 pm EDT

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    Huh... a poll that is both interesting and entertaining. Well done good sir, well done.
    The only real issue I see is that using your methodology, Vandy should be higher. Sprains the brain to think about it, but they had a convincing win over a team likely to win their conference and who were predicted to beat them. In an odd reversal of what typically happens, the BCS team's victory over the Mid-Major was mostly an upset.
  7. antiscrewtape
    7. Posted by antiscrewtape Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:56 pm EDT

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    I love the last grouping but you leave out Georgia who beat a Georgia Southern team who beat App State last season. Talk to me at the end of the year and let's compare the LSU win vs the Georgia win.
  8. Georgia Buckeye
    8. Posted by Georgia Buckeye Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:55 pm EDT

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    Doc,
    Good job as always. Not just with the interesting poll, but that you have managed to attract (some) literate commenters to Yahoo.
    Keep it up.
  9. schriz
    9. Posted by schriz Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:04 pm EDT

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    Congrats on your 'promotion' to Yahoo, Matt. I was a huge fan of the old site.
    Anyway, good analysis (& criticism) of the conventional polls, and I like seeing that you have a legitimate alternative in this poll. I'm tired of hearing how the current poll system is flawed, without hearing of any decent alternatives. This poll, based on merit and of games actually won, works for me.
  10. 4.0 Point Stance
    10. Posted by 4.0 Point Stance Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:55 pm EDT

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    Stanford in the top ten! Time for a celebratory belt of scotch. Sure, it's 9:30 in the morning, but I haven't slept in days.
  11. su2nasa
    11. Posted by su2nasa Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:46 pm EDT

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    As I posted in the MGoBlog BlogPoll comments:
    I'm interested to know from SMQ, how does beating Syracuse 30-10 qualify Northwestern for a top-25 resume ranking?
    Let's look at other great moments in Syracuse openers:
    2007: vs. Washington, L 40-12 (next week L at Iowa 35-0)
    2006: at Wake Forest, L 20-10
    2005: vs. West Virginia, L 15-7
    2004: at Purdue, L 51-0
    Anyone care to look and see how those teams fared the rest of the season?
    As a Syracuse alumnus, I rest my case... and I need a drink.
  12. TheOtherBootyBrother
    12. Posted by TheOtherBootyBrother Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:39 pm EDT

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    not enough sec teams, obviously
  13. mikelewandowski2003
    13. Posted by mikelewandowski2003 Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:19 pm EDT

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    Only one concern.....LSU beat a 1-AA team as well, not a mid-major that's bowl bound. Surely, since they have a cupcake, even a famous one, they should be below Northwestern and such.
    To the people calling this "crap", you obviously don't understand what he's doing. He doesn't care what you think they will do this year, only what they have done. It doesn't matter that OSU and UGA are expected to be very good, because they played soft opponents in week one.
    The whole thing will shake itself out later in the season, as there is more data to be evaluated.
    Just because you don't agree with how he ranked it, his methodology makes a ton of sense, and it only looks funny because it's week one.
  14. Mateusz
    14. Posted by Mateusz Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:46 pm EDT

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    Love it
  15. adder30
    15. Posted by adder30 Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:13 pm EDT

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    Interesting, I like that about it.
    Kinda hard to justify taking preseason 'buzz' into consideration for ranking quality of opponents but then completely disregarding it for the team itself. (i.e. if Bama is good for beating Clemson, doesn't that imply that Clemson is at least kinda good?... like better than Northwestern good?)
    Whatever, its week 1.... I'd rather read a top25 pulled out of a hat than listen to ANYTHING about basebal !
  16. adder30
    16. Posted by adder30 Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:13 pm EDT

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    Interesting, i like that about it.
    Kinda hard to justify taking preseason 'buzz' into consideration for ranking quality of opponents but then completely disregarding it for the team itself. (i.e. if bama is good for beating clemson, doesn't that imply that clemson is at least kinda good?... like better than northwestern good?)
    whatever, its week 1.... i'd rather read a top25 pulled out of a hat than listen to anything about baseball !
  17. doobiescrew2002
    17. Posted by doobiescrew2002 Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:47 pm EDT

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    Geat work my friend... as always. Now, it's off to work where I must deal with the "pain stupidity" of upper managment.
  18. mdr
    18. Posted by mdr Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:14 pm EDT

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    I looked at the poll before reading the post. I had it figured out by #5, but it was a bit of shocker at first. Hard to disagree with the methodology, but I will say that UGA beating GA Southern is just as good as LSU beating App St imo. Whatever though. I'll be happy when the early season cupcake stuff is behind us.
    One more thing, OMG U tink LA Teck is betta than LSU?!?! Ur stoopid!1!!!!1!!!
    :-)
  19. pantsmcpants1
    19. Posted by pantsmcpants1 Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:59 pm EDT

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    I'm well aware of the methodology you have used to torment Brian @ mgoblog and I applaud the effort...
    However, it doesn't seem to take into account the actual performance enough, and also credits teams for beating terrible teams, provided they are in a BCS conference.
    Syracuse? Is there really any proof they are better than App State or Youngstown State for that matter?
    And on that second point, LSU gets credit for beating Appy St., but an Ohio State team that held YSU to 70 total yards and 5 first downs using every scholarship player/trainer/mascot they could put on the field is below a team that beat Syracuse? YSU was winning championships in 1-AA before Appy State was Warm Warm Warm.
  20. jpaulk1954
    20. Posted by jpaulk1954 Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:42 pm EDT

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    I use the same resume-based methodology as the Dr (or at least my laptop does) but rate the value of a win by the opponent's rank AFTER they've lost the game. I use a composite of computer rankings for that (thank you Dr. Massey!) and my resume-based poll looks more like this:
    1 UCLA 27
    2 East Carolina 31
    3 Utah 37
    4 Missouri 39
    5 Stanford 41
    6 Alabama 43
    7 California 50
    8 Fresno St 56
    9 Southern California 63
    10 Florida 66
    11 Kentucky 67
    12 Oregon 68
    13 Bowling Green 72
    14 Louisiana Tech 72
    15 Arkansas St 73
    16 Oklahoma St 75
    17 TCU 77
    18 Texas 83
    19 South Carolina 90
    20 Colorado 92
    21 Nebraska 92
    22 Auburn 96
    23 Wyoming 96
    24 Vanderbilt 97
    25 Mississippi 99
    Like SMQ, I assign 0 value to a 1A win over a 1AA team. My laptop knows how to do the same thing with a rating that covers all division 1 teams, but I haven't asked it to do that yet.
    Note that my laptop's approach adds back in the requisite number of SEC teams....
  21. Spazzy McGee
    21. Posted by Spazzy McGee Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:39 pm EDT

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    OMG u think La Tech is better than LSU lol
  22. beatuofa
    22. Posted by beatuofa Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:04 pm EDT

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    Impressive -- Mike is the only one who earns everlasting FAIL for his inability to read the column and think about the reasoning in favor of "WHAT OMG NO LSU U SUKC!!!" Plus bonus points for misspelling Saban. You're raising up the culture over here on Yahoo, Matt.
  23. Zach K
    23. Posted by Zach K Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:20 pm EDT

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    Mike, it is great method of ranking teams. Really no one can judge who the better teams are until the season plays out. Amazing concept isn't.
  24. mangere_bridge
    24. Posted by mangere_bridge Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:12 pm EDT

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    jpaulk1954: Doesn't that unfairly punish teams that destroy their opponents? Wouldn't Bama be higher, for example, if they scraped past Clemson rather than humiliating them? I ask because I've tried similar formulas myself and I've never been particularly happy with them.

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