Wed Aug 05, 2009 12:03 pm EDT
Big East Eliminator: Three Reasons Pittsburgh can't possibly return to the BCS
No one has a clue who's going to win this league. So the Doc's logically crossing off the contenders, one by one. Part of Big East Week.
Sayonara Shady. LeSean McCoy handled the ball on 35 percent of the Panthers' offensive snaps, accounted for 40 percent of their total yards from scrimmage and scored more touchdowns than the rest of the offense combined. He was one of only five players nationally more than 300 carries for the season, and joined Beanie Wells as the only players averaging at least 20 carries in both 2007 and 2008. With McCoy, backup/one-time starter LaRod Stephens-Howling and last year's top two targets all moving on, the offense is totally bereft of proven playmakers.
But McCoy is by far the most important, mainly because every time I watched Pitt last year, I got the feeling "Shady" was the only thing the team had going for it. Witness the Panthers' four-overtime slugfest at Notre Dame, in which McCoy outgained the rest of the Pitt offense, covered the last 37 yards of a critical second half touchdown drive on five straight shotgun snaps and accounted for 65 of the Panthers' 69 yards across the overtime periods, setting up each of the Conor Lee field goals that extended and eventually won the game. (Lee, selected as the best kicker in the conference, is also gone, for the record.) Or in the win over West Virginia, when McCoy carried on 10 of 11 plays for 71 yards and two touchdowns on consecutive fourth quarter drives that put the Panthers over the top. The backs attempting to replace that impact this year combined for 49 yards in '08 on 17 carries and will probably be surpassed by freshmen.
Stuck with Stull. Much of the slack from the departures will fall to quarterback Bill Stull, last seen going for 7-for-24 passing in the 3-0 loss to Oregon State in the Sun Bowl, the ugliest bowl game of the post-World War II era. Stull had his moments and was an improvement over Pat Bostick, who tanked as a true freshman after Stull was injured in '07, but the veteran still finished with five interceptions in the last four games and a negative TD:INT ratio (10:9) for the year. How far can a team go with a novice running game and only the fourth or fifth-best quarterback in the conference?
The Wannstedt Wane. Altogether, recruiting under Wannstedt has probably been as good or better here than at any program in the Big East -- and yet his first three teams couldn't even punch their ticket to a bowl game, while South Florida, UConn and Cincinnati, teams that still finish annually at the bottom of the conference in terms of incoming talent, have been just as competitive, including the Bearcats' run to the championship last year. Brian Kelly, Greg Schiano, Jim Leavitt and Randy Edsall are seen as energetic builders maximizing their scant resources; Wannstedt is seen as a stodgy, by-the-book type who hews to the status quo and subsequently always winds up somewhere in the middle -- his Big East record after four years is 14-14, and his teams haven't won more than two conference games in a row since mid-2005. If McCoy and/or All-American linebacker Scott McKillop couldn't provide the spark for a minor hot streak, who on this team is going to?
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Previously eliminated: Cincinnati.
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Matt Hinton
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10 Comments
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I don't dispute McCoy's past importance in the offense. But you think that the Pitt coaches are just going to throw their hands up... go out there with 10 guys or something? You probably said the same thing in 2004, when Pitt lost Larry Fitzgerald and only had 9 total starters returning and was the least experienced team in the conference. You want to talk about inexperienced running game, at one point that year they were playing a walk-on FB at TB due to injuries. But guess what, they won the Big East that year.
I'm putting alot of faith in new OC Frank Cignetti. The fact that you didn't even mention his arrival in your article shows me the depth of your knowledge on the team you are so casually eliminating from conference title contention. A change at OC was overdue and I think Cignetti is a great hire. But maybe it doesn't matter to you who is calling the plays or the offensive philosophy?
The QBs have not been good, I won't try to argue otherwise. But just improving to a postive TD-INT ratio and a better completion percentage will go a long way on making this team better. These guys don't have to be world beaters or anything. The Big East can be won with "Dilfter-ball", "don't lose the game" QBs. Pitt has a very good OL and excellent receiving targets. And the defense may be the best in the league. But maybe you think that QB and RB are the only 2 positions that matter.
Please put more thought into your stories. And no, I'm not a Pitt fan. Just somebody who likes accurate and well thought articles.
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Colour me unimpressed that Pitt won the Big East in 2004. The Big East that year was an absolute trainwreck. Plus they finished in a crazy logjam tie for first. And they were badly outgained in league play, but were +13 and had three close wins. And Furman took them to OT. And Nebraska, in Bill Callahan's first year (and a week after losing to Southern Miss at home) beat Pitt @ Pitt. Pitt's two best wins were I guess were the 3-pointers over ND and WV, neither of which finished the year ranked. Basically, that Pitt team was pretty rugged, and got decently lucky. If this Pitt team is anything like that one, it'll be a rough year.
Anyway, this was the point: "With McCoy, backup/one-time starter LaRod Stephens-Howling and last year's top two targets all moving on, the offense is totally bereft of proven playmakers." McCoy was a monster and a rare difference-maker. The offense, at this point, is on Stull (who, as you mentioned, had a negative TD-INT difference...as a fourth year junior) and Baldwin (who obviously has loads of potential but has all of 18 career catches). Solid O-line or no, that doesn't exactly inspire confidence.
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answer: Jonathan Baldwin
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Matt H
3. Posted by Matt H Thu Aug 06, 2009 7:25 am EDT
The point of this series seems to have eluded you, Scott.
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At the time I did not know you were briefly making a case against each team in the conference, therefore I do owe you an apology for not writing what I thought was a fair analysis of the team.
However, I'll stand by my comments on Pitt's potential this season. They are just as much in the hunt as anyone in the league. I really looking forward to seeing what the Cignetti OC hire does for the team, obviously I'm optimistic there.
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I get it that Kelly, Schiano, and co. are touted as better coaches because they get more out of less talent, but in the end, I think Pitt will pervail (eventually) under Wanny just by having more talent than other BigEast teams. If Pitt had anything at QB the past 2 years, the nation would have a much different take on Wannstedt.
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The other backs are of course unkown, but they all have talent; Cignetti should also introduce some new energy and new thinking. The defense probably won't experience much drop-off just because mckillop is gone; the new lbs have played, and they might be somewhat more athletic, even if Scott was tough as nails.
The other thing working for each of the possible contenders is that all the better teams have lost great players at key positions, but they all have good coaches and in some cases terrific replacements.
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