Dr. Saturday - NCAAF

In a perfect world, the Doc would be given carte blanche to publicly torch the Bowl Championship Series in effigy and institute the elaborate, double-elimination battle royale of his dreams. But we live in the world we live in, so each Sunday the Doc looks at what the new BCS numbers mean for the rest of the season. Rooting interest: chaos. Always chaos.

At one point Saturday night, a paradigm-shifting stunner looked possible, if not exactly probable. Simultaneously, for a few minutes, Mississippi State led Alabama in the second quarter while Stanford was knotted with USC at the half, with Troy running roughshod over LSU for good measure (losing the Tigers as a viable strength of schedule card would be a hit to Florida and/or Alabama, although maybe not a significant one; every tenth of a point here is crucial). But no alarms in the end, no surprises: All the favorites held on, and the top nine this week is identical to last week. The only change in the top-10 is in the final spot, where Ohio State leapfrogs Georgia (insert OMG Big Ten over SEC! lament here, and blather yourself into a stupor trying to justify it).

I maintain, along with everyone else, that the mythical championship game is inevitably a collision between someone from the Big 12 South -- not necessarily the champion, if that champ should happen to fall to overlooked Missouri in the Big 12 Championship -- and the winner of the Florida-Alabama showdown in the SEC. As I said earlier this week, though, I don't think that team can be Texas under any realistic scenario. Too many chips have to fall exactly the Longhorns' way, and the voters/computers still have to buy them over strong competing arguments, as we'll see below.

Sitting pretty. Three teams are in "just win" mode: Texas Tech, which can still finish 13-0, and Florida and Alabama, which obviously need only to win their respective rivalry games (yes, I'm taking a Gator victory over The Citadel this week for granted) to set up a winner-take-all "semi-final" in the SEC Championship.

The fourth team I'd throw into that mix is Oklahoma, with this week's hyped visit from Texas Tech serving as the other "semifinal" game. The Sooners remain behind Texas for now -- as they should, given the head-to-head result in October -- but a win over the streaking Raiders Saturday would likely vault OU ahead of the Longhorns with another tough game, at Oklahoma State, to solidify that lead. Since both Oklahoma and Texas' routes to the Big 12 Championship hinge on a Tech loss to OU and a subsequent showdown in the BCS standings, the Sooners' pending advantage there -- that is, if they beat Tech and OSU -- puts them in the driver's seat.

A little help? Texas is in a bizarre situation in that its route to the Big 12 Championship is virtually impossible -- no matter what happens in Norman this weekend, the Horns' winning the South essentially requires a Baylor upset over Texas Tech in two weeks -- and its path to the national championship depends on both Oklahoma and Texas Tech losing down the stretch, one of them in the Big 12 Championship. As I see it, the only way Texas finishes in the top two in the final BCS is this:

• Oklahoma beats Texas Tech (Creates three-way tie between UT, OU and Tech)
• Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma (Eliminates Oklahoma; creates two-way tie between UT and Tech, which Tech wins on head-to-head tiebreaker)
• Baylor beats Texas Tech, sending UT to the Big 12 Championship (please), OR
• Missouri beats Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship (Texas advances to No. 2 by attrition)

If Oklahoma goes on to the Big 12 Championship and loses, leaving voters to decide between one-loss Texas and one-loss Texas Tech, they're likely to remember this:

... and vote for Texas Tech. If Texas Tech beats Oklahoma, goes on to the Big 12 Championship and loses, they're likely to remember that win, throw up their hands and vote for USC.

Basically, Texas cannot win unless it's in precisely the bullet-pointed sequence laid out above, which leaves Oklahoma and Texas Tech with two losses apiece. Though that's still better than USC's chances, especially if Oregon State keeps winning and the Trojans can't even play the "conference champion" card.

For chaos' sake. Other than crossing your fingers for long-shot upsets by Florida State, Auburn or Baylor, any scenario under which Missouri wins the Big 12 championship throws the whole system into disarray. No matter the exact permutations -- whether the Tigers beat Oklahoma or Texas Tech -- voters would be left to decide between a pair of one-loss teams (Texas and Texas Tech), neither of which won its conference championship, and USC, which has a weaker schedule and might not win its conference championship, either, depending on what happens to Oregon State. I mean, does Penn State creep back into that picture? Or, heaven forbid, computer fave Utah? There is no fair way to resolve that scenario.

So whatever happens over the next two weeks, remember: There's always Chase Daniel, maker of mischief, waiting on Dec. 6 to burn this whole thing to the ground.

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98 Comments

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  1. Sam @ WWAHT
    1. Posted by Sam @ WWAHT Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:16 pm EDT

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    Here's hoping Chase has a little Bakunin in him.
  2. keevin s
    2. Posted by keevin s Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:48 pm EDT

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    Raider Power! To borrow a phrase from other Raiders, "Just win baby!"
  3. scottsexfan
    3. Posted by scottsexfan Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:08 pm EDT

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    Only in the BCS does Georgia, who's 2 losses have come to the BCS 1 and 4 teams, fall below Ohio State, who's 2 losses have come to the BCS 6 and 8 teams, yet both teams still have a extremely outside shot of playing for the championship....
  4. Noah F
    4. Posted by Noah F Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:40 pm EDT

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    Wait! Missing another possibility. If Missouri wins Big 12 Championship, and Bama loses a close game to Florida. Why not Bama as the next best one loss team. All SEC BCS Championship game. Can you really put USC or Penn State above Bama just because Bama's one loss occurred on the last week.
  5. The Nicker
    5. Posted by The Nicker Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:11 pm EDT

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    To answer Noah: yes you can.
    And as an SEC-hater that is still bitter about Florida hopping Michigan in 2006 (albeit apparently the correct judgment) there is no way in hell the general public will let the (this year) mediocre SEC in with a rematch.
  6. Sam @ WWAHT
    6. Posted by Sam @ WWAHT Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:16 pm EDT

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    I wouldn't be so sure, Nicker. While the SEC is down according to most bloggers, some pundits and reality, ESPN is still on the SEC bandwagon and will continue to be that way as long as they have that ridiculous contract with the conference. If Bama loses a close one to Florida, the propagandists over at the Boo-ya network will come out in force.
    It's getting to the point where ESPN is more of an SEC homer network than CBS.
  7. Sam @ WWAHT
    7. Posted by Sam @ WWAHT Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:16 pm EDT

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    Whether or not that will actually affect the actual rankings is anyone's guess.
  8. LD
    8. Posted by LD Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:01 pm EDT

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    So you dinks are complaining that if a 1-loss and otherwise dominant Florida team wins a dogfight over an undefeated Bama team in the SEC championship, Florida will only go to the title game because of some perceived bias in the media? Wow. May I suggest either fewer drugs or way more drugs and a bottle of midol. Seriously, your mangina will thank me later.
  9. Noah F
    9. Posted by Noah F Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:40 pm EDT

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    But, it will not be a conference debate. It will be Big 12 South loser, Bama, USC, or Penn State decision. Bama's one loss would look better. Plus it is BAMA. Everyone loves Bama! The craziest fans, the Tradition, the turnaround by God himself-Saban. BCS committee would be too scared of Saban and the death threats from the insane Bama Nation.
  10. Lord Calvert
    10. Posted by Lord Calvert Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:43 pm EDT

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    In a fair world, what would happen if Cap'n Leach and crew loses is that you'd ignore them all and put in undefeated Utah to face the Florida-Alabama winner. But, of course, the BCS was expressly set up so that possibility could never happen no matter who they beat.
    It would indeed be a sad statement on the state of college football that we could have two undefeated teams who were never given a chance to test their mettle on the field for a championship and were deliberately bypassed by a team that lost without ever being permitted to have a chance against them.
  11. CuseFanInSoCal
    11. Posted by CuseFanInSoCal Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:48 pm EDT

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    As I keep pointing out, USC will be at minimum Pac 10 co-champ if they beat UCLA. The only thing the tie-breaker determines is who gets the Rose Bowl spot; USC still has a share of the conference title if they win out.
  12. sean
    12. Posted by sean Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:10 pm EDT

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    Matt,
    Why are you so sure OU will win the 3-way tiebreaker? Obviously they stand a very good chance thanks to having two big games against ranked teams that will be fresh in the voters minds. But that is what it is going to come down, what the voters think. And if they truly look objectively don't you think Texas should have a better shot than to be written off?
    Record of OU's non-conference opponents: 18-24
    Record of Texas' non-conference opponents: 21-19
    Big 12 non-common opponents:
    (Texas) - 14-8
    Missouri: 9-2
    Colorado: 5-6
    (OU) - 11-11
    Nebraska: 7-4
    KSU: 4-7
    Head to head result at a neutral site:
    Texas 45 - OU 35
    Loss:
    Texas: 33-39 at Tech
    OU: 35-45 at neutral site
  13. Mat
    13. Posted by Mat Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:03 pm EDT

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    What would fair about Utah jumping a number of much more qualified teams that played much tougher schedules? Their narrow win over what just might be the worst Michigan team of all time (and me being a huge Michigan fan here)? Their narrow win over a TCU team that isn't actually any good? Honestly, who else have they beat? Either the Utes need to join a real conference or schedule all of their non-con games against elite level competition before they get any serious consideration above the BCS-berth that they don't deserve as it it.
  14. Nashville
    14. Posted by Nashville Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:34 pm EDT

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    though highly improbable, i can't imagine a better logjam than what would happen if this occurred:
    1)florida loses at florida st., but beats an overrated bama team in the sec championship but has 2 losses.
    2)texas tech loses to oklahoma, who advances to the big xii championship game where missouri avenges last year, meaning a 2 loss team has won the big xii.
    3)oregon st. wins the remainder of its games, thereby winning the pac-10 with 3 losses.
    4)somehow, some way, michigan st. beats penn st., thereby throwing the big ten to ohio st., and leaving the big ten champ with 2 losses.
  15. Nashville
    15. Posted by Nashville Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:34 pm EDT

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    the result would be four 1-loss teams who are not conference champions and 2 undefeated non-bcs conference champions. there would be no end to the circular logic. florida wins the sec but does it with 2 losses. usc, texas tech, texas, and alabama finish with only a single loss, but don't win their conference. the bcs championship game would likely be two at-large teams.
  16. Steve G
    16. Posted by Steve G Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:15 pm EDT

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    Matty (#12): You need to check your facts before you make a comment like (Either the Utes need to join a real conference or ...). Fact is the Mountain West is 27-11 in non-conference games and the PAC-10 is 13-17 in non-conference play. Before you say that the Mountain West's non-conference schedule is light, I should remind you that in head-to-head competition, the Mountain West has beaten the PAC-10 5 out of 6 times. Maybe it is USC that should join a real conference.
    I should also remind you that in their only BCS appearance the Utes abused Big East champion Pitt.
  17. JB
    17. Posted by JB Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:18 pm EDT

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    I'm really sick of listening to the longhorns and commentators contention that after OU beats Tech, how can the Sooners be allowed to jump UT since they won a head to head earlier this year.
    If this is the case, how are you going to put UT in front of TT since they just got beat 2 weeks ago.
    I guess this only applys if your a cry baby.
  18. Carl V
    18. Posted by Carl V Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:03 pm EDT

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    Perhaps I'm mistaken, but wouldn't a much easier route for Texas to get into the national championship be the following:
    Texas Tech loses to Oklahoma
    Texas Tech loses to Baylor
    If Oklahoma beats Okie State, Texas and Oklahoma, tied by record, the head to head goes to Texas, otherwise it's all Texas anyway
    Texas beats Missouri in the championship game
    As the computers already love Texas, and the pollsters have them at number 4, behind two teams who'd drop by this point (Tech and the loser of Bama/Florida), BAM. They're in number two, and it only requires one other team to lose (Granted, it requires them to lose TWICE...)
  19. Zone Left
    19. Posted by Zone Left Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:53 pm EDT

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    I think Texas has a better chance to get in than Doc thinks. If Oklahoma beats Texas Tech and then loses to Ok State or Mizzou, they're in. USC and Penn State aren't going to pass them and I don't think voters will remember Texas' loss. Just a guess. The media ordained a Big 12 v SEC title game over a month ago, and there will need to be some serious chaos to change that.
  20. Matt H
    20. Posted by Matt H Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:48 pm EDT

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    That's one of my scenarios, Carl, but it requires Texas Tech losing to Baylor. Yes, if rivers turn to blood, Texas can be No. 2.
  21. Noah F
    21. Posted by Noah F Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:40 pm EDT

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    Again, if Bama loses close to Florida(12-1) and Missouri(11-2) wins Big 12, Bama(12-1) would be the next best one loss team. Their only loss would be to the final poll's number 1 team (Florida).
  22. JB
    22. Posted by JB Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:18 pm EDT

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    Stranger things have happened, almost happened in Lincoln. I think the Sooners will have a harder time
    against OSU than they do this wkend.
    Matt is correct about potential problems awaiting whoever at Arrowhead. Like a home game for Mizzou,
    probably about 10 degrees and boisterous.
  23. liz
    23. Posted by liz Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:56 pm EDT

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    While from a fairness perspective, your analysis may be correct, but it fails to capture the "what have you done for me lately" aspect of poll voters. You presume voters will remember the last second toss to Crabtree to beat Texas. But they did seem to forget Florida's not so last second loss to Ole Miss. I do expect that a Tech loss to Oklahoma would result in Oklahoma jumping over Texas (again, with people forgetting that Texas beat OK and didn't need last second heroics to do so), but Tech would most likely drop below Texas if for nothing but Tech has finally been "outed".
    All Texas would need then would be for Oklahoma to lose to OKST or Missouri in the championship game - something that OKST and Chase Daniel and crew may very well be able to pull off considering OK's defensive shortcomings. A Tech loss to a 2-loss OK team wouldn't help them in the computers either.
    Of course, with all that said, Texas Tech will likely run the table. At that point, Texas's only hope is that Florida St. sneaks up on Florida (unlikely) and then Florida undresses Alabama (likely). Then we can watch an all-Big 12 BCS championship game - a rematch between Tech and Texas :-).
  24. yabba d
    24. Posted by yabba d Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:54 pm EDT

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    If there are any ties in the Big 12 conferences, it has been reported on ESPN and in the papers I read that the team with the highest ranking in the BCS gets the bid to the chamionship, not the winner of a head to head. If OU beats TT, it is all tied up for the 3 schools and the one highest in the BCS ranking is supposed to go to the championship game, not the winner of a head to head. If OU beats TT, I would think that TT would fall to fourth in the BCS rankings, and it would be close who would be higher in the BCS, OU or Texas.
    liz-- I don't think two schools from the same conference can play in BCS championship game.
  25. The Nicker
    25. Posted by The Nicker Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:11 pm EDT

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    Noah F, let's go with your theory: Florida edges Alabama in the greatest game of all time, and both teams finish 12-1. Florida would go to the MNC. In your opinion then, Alabama, which would have not even a share of a conference championship, would deserve to go over:
    -Texas: Another team without a conference championship and 1 loss, who played a tougher schedule and looked more impressive doing it, with their loss coming to a top 5 team on the road as opposed to at a neutral site like Alabama's loss would be.
    -Texas Tech: Provided they lose to Oklahoma, ditto as the above.
    -USC: A team with a share of the Pac 10 title or the outright Pac 10 title that everyone knows is probably the most talented team in the country.
    Then you wonder why people in other parts of the country make fun of SEC fans for their stupidity.

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