Dr. Saturday - NCAAF

In a perfect world, the Doc would be given carte blanche to publicly torch the Bowl Championship Series in effigy and institute the elaborate, double-elimination battle royale of his dreams. But we live in the world we live in, so each Sunday the Doc looks at what the new BCS numbers mean for the rest of the season. Rooting interest: chaos. Always chaos.

We've got a month and a half and a lot of surprises to go, here, so the least interesting thing about the year's first Official Poll of the People is who's No. 1. Or No. 2. They're exactly the same as the human polls, anyway: Texas and Alabama. They're your pole sitters.

It's much more fascinating to judge just how wildly the computer aggregates differ at this point in the year from the sum total of puny human minds. Penn State, for example, is one of the Big Three undefeated teams at the top right now, and right on Alabama's heels for the No. 2 spot in the Harris and Coaches polls (and the AP poll, too, but the writers opted out of the BCS process, the curs, and so are dead to us). To the computers, the Lions are No. 7, behind Oklahoma State and one-loss Oklahoma, Ohio State and Georgia. Not one single Official Algorithm ranks PSU higher than fifth (Anderson & Hester), and one has the Lions as low as No. 11 (Peter Wolfe). You may be impressed by all the shiny blowouts -- Penn State is schooling people by a national-best 33 points per game -- but the computers aren't allowed to take margin of victory into account.

Instead, they see an average strength of schedule (by their published calculations) somewhere in the low 90s and a "best win" over Oregon State and spit out a number that's closer to what the flesh-and-bloods think of, say, Boise State or TCU. Both of whom the computers kind of like, by the way.

Other vast chasms between human and computer opinions: Oklahoma State, No. 8 in the human polls but No. 3 according to the machines; USC, a top five team in the human polls but tenth (behind Utah and Boise State) in the computer versions, which obviously have not seen the recruiting rankings; Florida, sixth and seventh, respectively, by the humans but No. 12 by the computers, and no higher than eighth in any of them; LSU, No. 11 by the people but tied (with Northwestern) for No. 19 by the machines; South Florida, which cracks both human polls' top 15 but is way down at No. 23 in the computer polls; and Kansas, whose offensive prowess in a loss to Oklahoma didn't even knock the Jayhawks out of the humans' top 20, but who also don't appear in five of the six computer top 25s at all.

Sitting pretty. Texas has a substantial lead in every poll, and Alabama a substantial enough lead over Penn State in the computer versions, that the Horns and Tide look like they're in win-and-in mode. Even if Penn State continues its path of destruction through the Big Ten, the Big 12 and SEC have been getting lots of slobbering kisses as the strongest conferences all season and won't yield their conference champions after "Championship Weekend," when Penn State will just be watching, anyway. Replace Texas with Oklahoma State or Texas Tech if either manages to upset UT, beat the other, beat Oklahoma and run the table.

Among the one-loss teams, Oklahoma is in a dead heat with USC in the human polls and ahead of the Trojans in every single computer poll, although but the Sooners also need Texas to lose twice to avoid the curse of "didn't even win their own division." SC is set to cruise through the rest of the Pac-10, where its toughest opponent is its own inconsistent psyche, but if OU manages to win out (which means beating Texas Tech and Oklahoma State), even without winning the Big 12, the computers will still favor the Sooners, and the humans will have to make some kind of indefensible leap in logic to move the Trojans ahead with no remaining ranked teams on their schedule.

A little help? Penn State can't catch Texas or Alabama on its schedule alone and needs one of those two to lose to move into the top two. And god bless them, Ohio State is trucking along, just waiting for the Big 12 South to shake itself out. If the Buckeyes beat Penn State Saturday, and the Florida-Georgia winner in two weeks should happen to drop another one along the way, OSU is right in the mix again.

For chaos' sake. The undefeated triumverate in the Big 12 South (Texas, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech) offers plenty of opportunities to throw the entire affair into a big morass, most obviously by beating one another in an indecipherable A > B and B > C but C > A chain. If any of those three does come out of the regular season unscathed, there's always Kansas or Missouri lurking in the conference championship -- imagine coming to Dec. 7 with Texas, Oklahoma and the Texas Tech/Oklahoma State winner all with one loss to one of the other two, and none of them as conference champion, but with Oklahoma possessing the mythical "momentum." Do you dare take the Sooners over Texas? Or do you just set the Big 12 aside in favor of USC and/or whoever upsets Alabama in the SEC title game? If Oklahoma State manages to take out Texas Saturday in Austin, it's going to be like entering the Labyrinthe, only without the muppets (David Bowie, of course, will still be there).

digg delicious
more

121 Comments

Post a Comment
  1. CuseFanInSoCal
    1. Posted by CuseFanInSoCal Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:48 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    FWIW, Sagarin's 'Predictor' rating, which does take margin of victory into account, and Sagarin claims is more accurate than the 'Elo Chess' used for the BCS, is
    1. USC
    2. Florida
    3. Texas
    4. Penn State
    5. Oklahoma
    6. TCU
    7. Alabama
    8. Iowa?
    9. Missouri
    10. Georgia
    11. Oklahoma State
    12. Ohio State
    13. Texas Tech
    14. Oregon State?
    15. Arizona?
  2. Jamie Mottram
    2. Posted by Jamie Mottram Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:28 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    "Rooting interest: chaos. Always chaos." should be on a t-shirt.
  3. dethwing
    3. Posted by dethwing Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:42 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Iowa? Oregon State? More accurate my ass.
  4. jsisson31
    4. Posted by jsisson31 Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:43 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    David R, what the heck are you smokin??? USC #1??? why? coz they beat a team who is 1-7 and whose only win came against Portland State?? My high school's junior high team could beat Washington State that bad! Seriously dude, SC is so overrated!!!
  5. CuseFanInSoCal
    5. Posted by CuseFanInSoCal Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:48 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    It's not my ranking, it's Jeff Sagarin's 'Predictor' rating (as opposed to the 'Elo Chess' ranking he uses for the BCS). He claims it's more accurate. As a programmer, I'm inclined to believe predictions based on more data are better.
  6. HUh!!
    6. Posted by HUh!! Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:06 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    when has sagarin ever been right anyway, usc at top now we are all smoking the peace pipe, usc should barely be in the top 12, but they are the media babes
  7. gtne91
    7. Posted by gtne91 Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:43 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    David,
    Sagarin claims it is accurate for predicting future results, not a more accurate picture of what has happened. That is the ELO-Chess and why he combines them for his overall rating. If he thought it was the most accurate in general, he wouldnt have an overall that is different from that.
    Basically, the predictor is a pure power rating with some tweaks. You dont look at win/losses but only points.
  8. Be Honest
    8. Posted by Be Honest Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:08 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    The computer is a perfect example of number's dont lie but people do and will when they want what you got far as o-state... No wonder Coach Tressel ignore's his weekly poll vote to focus on his task at hand which is one game at a time in the mighty slept on big ten and see what happen's when its all said and done.
  9. Chad B
    9. Posted by Chad B Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:42 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Northwestern - #22 in the BCS rankings, and rising.....be very afraid of the Purple.....
  10. Cornholio
    10. Posted by Cornholio Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:15 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Northwestern blows, and so does the Big Ten this year. This coming from a Big Ten (Michigan State) alum.
  11. SportsCPA
    11. Posted by SportsCPA Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:36 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    That is how you can tell a team is overrated....when systematically it is ranked #10, but people are voting them #4. Not that USC is a bad team...just not as high as everyone thinks they are. I'm a Big Ten fan, and this year we are a little weaker than normal, but still a strong 3rd when comparing conferences (behind the Big 12 this year and the SEC). Penn St., Ohio State, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, and Illinois could all be ranked by the end of the season (4 of them already are with Michigan State losing points for getting blown out by OSU). So it's not the best conference this year, but far from the worst.
  12. Just_Telling_It_Like_It_Is
    12. Posted by Just_Telling_It_Like_It_Is Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:29 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Lets Go Penn State!!!!
  13. Johnson
    13. Posted by Johnson Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:14 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Go buckeyes!!!!!!!
  14. Glojo
    14. Posted by Glojo Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:10 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Penn State is happy to be unappreciated...so when we kick everyone elses butts, you won't even see us coming....and then...WHAM! National champions.
  15. radio-active
    15. Posted by radio-active Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:03 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    If you want something to chew on consider the record Joe has accumlated against current Big Twelve teams in bowl games...8 wins and only one loss...tell me again how the Big Twelve is superior?????
  16. osvaldo g
    16. Posted by osvaldo g Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:20 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    i hope Florida beats Georgia and get ranked up to number 2
  17. Tim K
    17. Posted by Tim K Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:12 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Pen State better find a way to beat OSU just once in the shoe before they start hoisting the Championship Trophy!
  18. JonathanH
    18. Posted by JonathanH Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:30 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    I will preface this by saying that I have the utmost respect for Penn State & Joe Pa. But I really don't think that Penn State even deserves to be number 2. If they beat Ohio State this weekend, then their name should come in to the conversation, but until that happens they are a totally unproven team who had a difficult time with Michigan last weekend? Not to mention that they are playing in the Big 10, which next to the ACC is the worst BCS conference out there this year. The 2 teams ahead of them have met & conquered some real opponents this year. Texas beat #1 Okalahoma & # 3 Missouri in back to back weeks. Alabama beat # 8 Clemson & #2 Georgia in blowout fashion. So lets strengthen up that resume a little bit Nittany Lions before we start getting the big head!!!!
  19. john p
    19. Posted by john p Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:39 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    you guys are so crazy. how do you say usc is overrated? they are overrated if you say they'll beat an NFL team. well maybe they'll be favored against the cheifs.
    but look, lets really think, would you say florida is overrated? the human polls are TRYING to take all sides into account. win-loss records, how they are playing right now, and who would win on a neutral field. i'd take human polls over computers any day. you want computers to determine the next president? no.
    wins are wins and loses are loses. schedules are a sad thing to take into account when determining the best team in the country. schedules should only be considered in-conference. east or west of sec or big 12 is nice when comparing schedules. because you have a conference champion.
    bottom line, you ask professionals or VEGAS who makes and puts on the line millions of dollars, who they think would win on a neutral field. what 2 teams would they pick in the country right now. just like the end of last year when everyone was saying put usc and georgia in the national title game. almost everybody, fans and pro analysts and media, agreed. bcs ratings are a joke. the 2 best teams playing right now in the country without question, not struggle in the first half and make a comeback but dominate at least 50 mins of a game, any opponent outside the top 10 could be in a 3 to 4 way tie. but here is what i think vegas would say. and i think, with all emotion and biased aside objectively, you'll agree.
    texas, usc, and florida.
    texas is no brainer. but only question is they had to come back to beat oklahoma. who has a overrated defense.
    usc, well, you know you'll never put $100 against them in any game. don't deny it.
    and the same for florida against bama or georgia. you know they'll beat both of them.
  20. K-Mart
    20. Posted by K-Mart Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:49 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    jbh- I agree with you that Penn State is still unproven, I'm a student there right now and the past two years have made me skeptical about our ability to show up in big games. I think we have a good shot at beating Ohio State, but we have to come out like we did against Wisconsin, not like we did against Michigan. If we win out though, I will be shocked if we don't get an invite to the National Championship game. I'm assuming Alabama or Texas will drop a game, and while they both may be a better team than Penn State, I want our reward for going undefeated lol.
    I do not agree with your assessment of the Big 10 however. The Big 10 is much improved from last year, and is still a lot better than the ACC and the Big East.
  21. Doc
    21. Posted by Doc Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:34 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    There is a set of statistics that support every point of view. Take the Congrove computer rankings, they show a different picture. They rank Penn State number two. If Penn state beats Ohio State next weekend they should jump to number one. Don't forget their pounding of Oregon State which then beat the lofty USC.
  22. chaz a
    22. Posted by chaz a Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:22 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    WE ARE PENN STATE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Penn State never really gets any love, and I guess this is no surprise. It does bother me that PSU is playing the way that they are playing with defense, offense, and special teams all ranked in the top 10 (the only school to do this, this year). It is okay though because we love to be overlooked.
  23. Chad H
    23. Posted by Chad H Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:21 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Iowa is only a few plays away from being 8-0. Insteasd they are a 5-3 team which will host Penn State in Iowa City and derail Penn State National Championship hopes
  24. howardz@...
    24. Posted by howardz@... Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:21 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    So Penn State ranks number 3.............I think they will prove their true ranking this week end when they go against Ohio State. This will be a real pad banger and when the smoke clears, we can all feel more comfortable that Penn State has earned its status when the Buckeyes crawl back to their locker room to lick their wounds...
    HJZ Camp Hill Pa
  25. FilmFlam
    25. Posted by FilmFlam Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:59 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    So, I am an Oregon State fan, and I know this won't get the distribution that it needs, but somethings to take into account when comparing OSU vs. Penn State to OSU's current team. Here is why we got off to a slow start while having one of the hardest schedules so far in the nation.
    1) OSU graduated the entire front seven of its defense last year.
    2) Our starting line had only one player with a start at the beginning of the season.
    3) Our star tailback hadn't emerged yet as he was only a true freshman.
    4) OSU always starts a season slow. Sad but true.
    5) OSU has the second best record in the Pac-10 since 2000. They are consistently competitive.
    Penn State is the better team for sure, but I don't think you can compare a home win in the second game of the season to our home win over USC three weeks later. Teams can grow a lot in three weeks. And not to jinx it, but if OSU wins out, which is VERY possible, they win the Pac-10 and go to the Rose Bowl. If Penn State gets screwed out of the BCS, then there will be a rematch and that would be a much fairer fight.

Dr. Saturday

Add to My Yahoo! RSS

Matt Hinton

Dr. Saturday is a college football blog edited by Matt Hinton. Email him tips and feedback.

Related Photo Gallery

Y! Sports Blogs

Dr. Saturday Recent Readers