Dr. Saturday - NCAAF

In a perfect world, the Doc would be given carte blanche to publicly torch the Bowl Championship Series in effigy and institute the elaborate, double-elimination battle royale of his dreams. But we live in the world we live in, so each Sunday the Doc looks at what the new BCS numbers mean for the rest of the season. Rooting interest: chaos. Always chaos.

Not much changes in the big picture this week, with the exception of Penn State's leap in the computer polls: PSU is third after its win over Ohio State, up from seventh according to the machines last week. It's nice to see everyone getting along, all the way up to the inevitable train wreck when the various tracks fail to sort themselves out over the last month. The computers can't agree on anything past the top three teams, with Oklahoma and Georgia sharing No. 4, Oklahoma State, Utah and Boise State sharing No. 7 and Texas Tech and Florida tied for tenth, all in defiance of the human polls. Past the top three, verily, it is the madness we bargained for.

Sitting pretty. Status quo still favors Texas and Alabama, which both remain ahead of Penn State by a miniscule but solid margin that will only grow if the Longhorns and Tide keep winning -- both UT and 'Bama have better wins on their existing resumés and tougher schedules down the stretch than the Lions and won't be budged from the top by anything short of an upset. And even if Texas loses this weekend at Texas Tech, PSU has to look out from below: the Raiders could be rocketing up the polls with the chance to keep rising against Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and the Big 12 Championship still in front of them. In other words, if there are three major undefeated teams at the end of the year, strength of schedule virtually guarantees Penn State is the odd man out.

The flipside of that -- assuming any undefeated team from a BCS conference will play for a championship ahead of a one-loss team -- is that the Lions have a much better chance of running the table against Iowa, Indiana and Michigan State than any of the other undefeated teams on their stretch runs:

Texas has at least two, possibly three (depending on what happens to Kansas) ranked opponents left, assuming the requisite date in the Big 12 Championship; even if Texas Tech does come out of next Saturday unblemished over the Horns, it has an even tougher road to navigate. Alabama has annual bugaboos LSU and Auburn (the Tide has lost 11 straight to division rivals named "Tigers") and the SEC Championship against the Florida-Georgia winner. So Penn State's task now is to take care of its business, then sit and wait for the others to fall by the wayside.

A little help? USC is in very bad shape here. The Trojans remain in front of Florida and Georgia for the moment, but that won't last past this weekend, when the winner of the Cocktail Party earns its biggest win of the regular season and effectively punches its ticket to the SEC Championship. SC can't compete with that with only one ranked team (Cal) left on its schedule. So the Trojans not only need at least three of the four unbeatens to lose, but also need Oklahoma and the Georgia-Florida winner to go down with a second loss, as well. Even if it keeps winning, I wouldn't expect USC to advance any higher than fourth without some highly improbable dominoes falling in its favor.

Oklahoma's chances hinge on winning the Big 12 South, and for that to happen, the Sooners need a Texas loss this weekend and subsequent wins over Texas Tech and Oklahoma State to create a two or three-way logjam that somehow ends with OU crashing the Big 12 Championship. The Georgia-Florida winner needs a Texas or Penn State loss, too, with the added bonus that it can knock Alabama out of the way itself in the SEC Championship.

For chaos' sake. Best case scenario: Texas, Alabama and Penn State all finish undefeated and the Lions complain about the snub all the way to Pasadena. Short of that, losses by Texas and Bama could create an insolvable bottleneck of teams with equally legitimate claims -- between a one-loss Big 12 champion, a one-loss SEC champion and one-loss USC, the difference could be a couple hundredths of a point in some algorithm no one understands.

It's quite possible Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma all end the season with one loss and a mind-bending win triangle against one another. Maybe Georgia edges Alabama on a field goal or something to win the SEC in far less impressive fashion than Bama won in Athens in September. That's the dream, anyway.

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55 Comments

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  1. Alaska Hokie
    1. Posted by Alaska Hokie Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:36 pm EDT

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    I was looking at the BCS selection criteria and was disappointed to discover that only the highest-ranked non-BCS school is taken, even if multiple non-BCS teams meet the automatic selection criteria.
    This year, multiple teams will likely meet the guideline of being a non-BCS conference champion ranked higher than a BCS conference champion (probably ACC and BEast), but because of that restriction, we may be left with a team ranked in the top 10 of the BCS and being left out of a BCS bowl.
    Imagine what would happen if we get your final scenario, DrS -- with all these one-loss BCS teams knocking each other down. Utah beats BYU, and Boise State remains undefeated, as do Ball State and Tulsa. What then? You could have multiple non-BCS teams in the top ten, yet not able to go to a game. After all, if the bowls aren't forced to pick these teams via automatic qualifiers, they'll go with a lower-ranked but more telegenic team instead. And that's a real tragedy.
  2. Burhop
    2. Posted by Burhop Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:07 pm EDT

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    I don't see Alabama or Texas making it undefeated. Oh, they are good but they have too many good teams in their conferences. Imagine the chaos if Penn State makes it all the way and then loses big to some one loss team from the SEC. If I was in the Big12 or PAC10 I'd be mad.
  3. PhilipL
    3. Posted by PhilipL Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:00 pm EDT

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    I'd love to see a Texas/Florida or Texas/ Georgia game played for the title. Bama won once against the 'dogs... won't happen again, and if Florida beats Georgia... bama's undefeated season has an even higher chance of being squashed. USC suffers from the same complacency of not playing against teams that are good enough. I wouldn't mind seeing all that talent against an SEC team but at the moment that looks doubtful. Well... at least they get to play in the Rose Bowl again.
  4. SpartanDan
    4. Posted by SpartanDan Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:11 pm EDT

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    Alaska Hokie - Only one gets an auto-bid. The others are eligible for at-large selection - and if the Big XII and SEC take too many of those top spots, there may be no option but to select them thanks to the two-per-conference limit.
  5. Fan L
    5. Posted by Fan L Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:08 pm EDT

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    sorry but when your best win is oregon or arkansas, you don't deserve to be in a bcs bowl.
  6. Alaska Hokie
    6. Posted by Alaska Hokie Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:36 pm EDT

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    They are indeed eligible, SpartanDan, but I find it hard to believe that a BCS bowl would select a non-BCS team unless they were forced to via the automatic bid. The two-team limit is an interesting point, though. Let's work the math.
    There's five BCS bowls: Rose, Sugar, Orange, Fiesta, and the BCS championship. That's a total of ten teams. Let's imagine a worst-case scenario with a Big 12 and SEC matchup in the championship game. There will be at least one other team from each of those conferences eligible -- taking up four spots of those ten. Then there's the champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, and Pac-10. That's four more spots, leaving two. The highest non-BCS school will take one of those spots with the automatic bid. That leaves just one spot.
    Will that one spot be filled by an at-large non-BCS team? Probably not. There will be at least one additional Big 10 team available (either Ohio State or Penn State), and it's hard to believe that a bowl would pass up that team to take someone like Ball State. Let me know if I'm off on my logic, but I think that eliminates an at-large non-BCS selection.
  7. cedorris
    7. Posted by cedorris Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:20 pm EDT

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    Go Raiders this weekend and Boomer Sooner next!!
    I'm ready to see the BCS computers fry.
  8. CuseFanInSoCal
    8. Posted by CuseFanInSoCal Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:48 pm EDT

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    Nope, Alaska Hokie's almost certainly right on how it will play out. About the only alternative is that if Oregon State wins out, they'll technically win the Pac 10, so USC will be in the at-large pool (though if that happens, and we get a Big 12/Penn State title game, then actually the SEC might get the short end of the stick for once; the Rose would be Ohio State/Oregon State, the Fiesta Big 12 #2 vs. Utah/Boise/TCU, the Sugar doesn't want a rematch so it's SEC champ vs. USC, and the Orange is ACC champ vs. Big East champ).
  9. BTITD
    9. Posted by BTITD Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:16 pm EDT

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    I don't know how USC is ahead of TT, Florida and Geargia in the BCS. Their schedule is weak and they lost to an unranked team and got really lucky against another unranked team. I wish these guys would quit voting with the check books and start voting for what is real. USC should be really lucky if they even make a BCS game. Front runners the wagon is losing a wheel. Get off!
  10. john p
    10. Posted by john p Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:39 pm EDT

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    David R, i like where you're going with it.
    i see texas smashing penn state in the title game and ohio state doing the same to oregon state. although i do see oregon state losing at least 1 more game.
    so the highlight bowl game that every college football fan wants to see is would be that sugar bowl with usc vs. florida/georgia. 1 month to prepare and on a neutral site? i see about half the first round of the draft going out in that game alone.
  11. Blitzkrieg
    11. Posted by Blitzkrieg Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:09 pm EDT

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    All you Big Tenners need to get a grip on the Herbstriet mug ya'll are sharing the Kool-aid from. The SEC, Big 12, and USC are all superior to your conference's best. I respect Joe Paterno as one of the all-time greats, but an undefeated ALABAMA vs an undefeated TEXAS is WAY BIGGER than any other conceivable BCS championship. Good luck to Penn State....i hope they beat the hell out of USC in the Rose Bowl!
  12. SpartanDan
    12. Posted by SpartanDan Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:11 pm EDT

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    Blitz: Is that why Sagarin's rankings have the Big Ten second and the SEC fourth? The Big XII is the best conference this year, but the SEC has three good teams and a pile of mediocrity, the Pac-10 is USC and assorted garbage, the ACC is chaos incarnate, and the Big East is flat-out awful. I'm not entirely sure I agree with Sagarin on the Big Ten being better than the SEC, but last year that would have been a completely laughable statement. This year it's not.
  13. chris
    13. Posted by chris Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:01 pm EDT

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    so somehow a win over # 8 osu is not as important as a win over unranked tenn? did it ever occur to anyone that the big ten has good teams and that they have good battles and the outcome isn't as clear cut as georgia playing tenn. don't get me wrong i am a fan of alabama winning, i live in texas, my uncle went to PSU and my fiances dad is from oklahoma and played football for a school in OK. so i'm at a crossroad here i just think at this point PSU should have jumped bama. if bama and UT win out i think it should be those 2 in it. the sec is strong but with teams losing to ole miss, and teams like miss state and tenn in the bunch it doesn't help. PSU and bama are the most complete teams in NCAA. texas has a non-existent D and hasn't faced a good D yet. Every game UT plays is a shoot out. i think tech can out shoot them. if bama or texas loses and PSU in undefeted then PSU should get the bid.
  14. CuseFanInSoCal
    14. Posted by CuseFanInSoCal Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:48 pm EDT

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    Hey, I'm a Big East fan (and a Syracuse fan at that -- when does basketball start?). Just because the SEC superiority cult has a bizarre view of the Big Ten based on the 2006 BCS title game and a distorted view of what actually happened in the 2007 BCS title game (i.e. they don't remember that Ohio State actually out-gained LSU, and the final margin was only two touchdowns, not some sort of earth-shattering blowout), no memory of USC smacking down SEC teams in the regular season four times -- three that finished with winning records, and one which won their division -- since Pete Carroll's taken over, and the demonstrated evidence that ESS-EEE-SEE Speed is not faster than Pat White doesn't mean that I need to forget these things.
    Heck, I don't even get why Ohio State is everyone's favorite whipping boy, and Oklahoma is not. I mean, both teams won a BCS title early in the decade, and have been blown out in one BCS title game and lost another more recently. Except that Ohio State has won its non-title game BCS bowls, and Oklahoma hasn't.
  15. Ryan W
    15. Posted by Ryan W Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:40 pm EDT

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    Whatever happens, we all have to cheer/pray/ do whatever you do against 2 undefeated teams bailing out the BCS. We either need 3 or 1.
  16. Thomas
    16. Posted by Thomas Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:08 pm EDT

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    yes if either alabama or texas wins out they should be in the championship game but if not penn st should be
  17. Nate
    17. Posted by Nate Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:40 pm EDT

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    pardon me,"loutx",but do i read you correctly "penn state should be ranked below usc"? and here's another gem,"usc would destroy penn state by 35" maybe you've never heard of a team from oregon state?
    or considered that psu's record against opponents in common with usc is 2-0,whereas usc is 1-1.
    what that means is that penn state hasn't lost.maybe i'm old fashioned and outdated,but i woud actually like to see the two best teams play for the national title.not the programs that recruit well and have the most talent,yet can't get the job done against "inferior" schools.
  18. Dionne K
    18. Posted by Dionne K Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:43 pm EDT

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    LOUTX,
    Where is the logic in the statement "USC would destroy Penn State in the national title game by 35." Penn State crushed Oregon State, made them look like a high school team and USC couldn't even beat them? Penn State would destroy USC. If PSU doesn't make the championship game then I look forward to them playing USC in the Rose Bowl just to shut you up. Pac-10 is one of the few major conferences that is even weaker than the Big 10 this year. GO PSU!
  19. B. Lamo
    19. Posted by B. Lamo Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:06 pm EDT

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    LOUTX you must be a PITT fan in disguise Joe Pa doesnt vote in the coaches poll. I think 6 BIG TEN coaches vote and they all should have PSU number 1 not just 2 of them. Big Ten bashing is easy because OSU is the proverbial flop in big games, but check PSU record vs.SEC and BIG 12 in bowls paints a little different picture.
  20. joseph c
    20. Posted by joseph c Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:38 pm EDT

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    PAC 10 is junk. SEC is searching for a front runner. The SEC championship will be a dog fight. BIG XII is full of offense and absolutly no defense, it loses everytime it plays a decent team out of conference. and the BIG 10 is like a David Blane magic trick. I don't think Bama will win out, I think Texas will and in the end we will see a mediocre team (Penn st.) play a good offense.
  21. jimsha413
    21. Posted by jimsha413 Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:35 pm EDT

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    I think that all of the Big Ten bashing is a bit overzealous. The major difference in the Big Ten is Big defense, which I am not seeing as I watch the shootouts down South. The other major factor that everyone uses is OSU's sub par performance in the last two National Championship Games. PSU isn't Ohio State. They play a complete game, and prepare well for their bowl games (look at their record). I think that if PSU goes undefeated, they deserve a shot at the title. If not, it wouldn't be the first time that they got the shaft without being able to prove themselves against the Big 12. (See PSU's unstoppable team in 1994 that would've cleaned Nebraska's clock head to head)
  22. JohnC
    22. Posted by JohnC Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:08 pm EDT

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    loutx you have to lay off smokin all that tumbleweed. You don' have a clue.
  23. JohnC
    23. Posted by JohnC Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:08 pm EDT

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    Penn State 45 USC 17 if Joe has the subs in by halftime.
  24. ajw_272000
    24. Posted by ajw_272000 Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:48 pm EDT

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    LOUTX
    Time for bed my lil man. You must be 10 yrs old and listening to your lil buds carry on vs knowing what you are talking about. If PSU doesn't make it to the natl. chapionship its only because: 1. Bama and Tx win out and that is fair enough or 2. the Lions get clipped by one of their 3 remaining Big 10 rivals. Other than that, they should, repeat Should, get the nod.
    Better yet - let's have a playoff, we can speculate all we want and just like in baseball, hoops, and pro fb the answer will be proven in a REAL title game.
  25. MBD11
    25. Posted by MBD11 Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:12 pm EDT

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    I disagree that Texas has a very difficult road remaining beyond this Saturday. If it beats Texas Tech, their remaining schedule would appear to be very favorable. Kansas? Texas A&M? Missouri/Kansas rematch? That should be a breeze for the Longhorns.

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