Dr. Saturday - NCAAF

In a perfect world, the Doc would be given carte blanche to publicly torch the Bowl Championship Series in effigy and institute the elaborate, double-elimination battle royale of his dreams. But we live in the world we live in, so each Sunday the Doc looks instead at what the new BCS numbers mean for the rest of the season. Rooting interest: chaos. Always chaos.

First of all, what's up with the computers? Utah and Texas Tech remain ahead of Florida and Southern Cal? Only one of the machines has Florida in its top four, and five of six have the Trojans ranked seventh or lower. Meanwhile, five of six still have Texas Tech in the top five, and Jeff Sagarin's "ELO-CHESS" rating -- the one he's forced to submit to fit BCS rules, rather than the "real" rating he honed for years -- still ranks Texas Tech ahead of Oklahoma, as does Peter Wolfe. This is the kind of absurdity that results when you withhold information: If the computers were allowed to take into account margin of victory instead of treating every win as exactly the same, those algorithms would make infinitely more sense (the poll Sagarin would submit if he could has Oklahoma No. 2 and Tech fourth).

Secondly, Oklahoma's emphatic expulsion of the Raiders from the ranks of the unbeaten guarantees this, at least: Somebody is getting screwed. Probably several somebodies. In the Big 12 South, either Oklahoma or Texas -- along with their presumptive co-champion, suddenly left for dead -- will get jobbed as early as next week, when, barring a huge upset, often inscrutable pollsters and even more inscrutable algorithms will pluck one to make its final argument in the Big 12 Championship while leaving the others for no good reason at all. USC, Utah and Penn State won't even get that opportunity.

We shouldn't be having any of these circular, dead end arguments, because there's not enough difference among any members of that group based on their accomplishments to logically justify excluding any of them. But among the half-dozen teams that will still have a legitimate championship claim after Dec. 6, only two will go on to the so-called championship game. If your team's not among that pair, yes, y'all got screwed. If your team is among that pair, you're lucky the screwjob worked in your favor. There's no way to be right or wrong about it. So either way, whatever happens over the last two weeks, accept your fate like a man. Somebody's getting screwed, and it might as well be you.

Sitting pretty. Florida and Alabama remain on a collision course for the biggest conference championship game in history, and they're the only two teams on the board who are definitely locked into one of the top two spots if they win out.

After that, we got us a fine bit of Big 12 South chaos, which is still wild enough, technically, to open the door to any of the teams currently ranked in spots 2 through 7 (yes, even Texas Tech; see below). I think the scenario can get complicated enough there to make voters throw up their hands and run screaming into the big, rippling arms of USC, but if I was a betting man, I'd stick with the story I've been peddling for the last two weeks: Oklahoma will beat Oklahoma State next week, hop Texas and go on to the Big 12 Championship. OU remains behind Texas this week because of the computers -- obviously, the humans were impressed enough by Saturday's obliteration to dismiss UT's win in the Cotton Bowl in October, and I have no problem with that -- but the strength of schedule boost in beating the Cowboys, while Texas plays Texas A&M, should push the Sooners up to No. 2 next Sunday.

So in my mind, Oklahoma controls its own destiny. If Oklahoma State manages to beat OU, though, that's when it gets really interesting.

A little help? For a team now known best for getting its head handed to it on national television in late November, I actually think Texas Tech is still alive with the Cowboy upset on Saturday: Assuming Tech beats Baylor, a second Sooner loss in-conference would put the Raiders back in a two-way tie for the South title with Texas, which Tech would win as a result of the head-to-head win over the Horns earlier this month. If they can get to the Big 12 Championship and beat Missouri, voters will have an awfully difficult time justifying passing up the 12-1, conference champion Raiders for a runner-up, 11-1 Texas outfit that they defeated in the regular season. Or so Tech hopes.

I maintain, then, that Texas is on the outside looking in. If Oklahoma wins again in even remotely convincing fashion, the computers are going to have to spit out one hell of an equation that keeps the Horns at No. 2.

For chaos' sake. The specter of ridiculous upsets always looms -- imagine the potential ripple effects of Auburn over Alabama, Florida State over Florida, Texas A&M over Texas or UCLA/Notre Dame over USC -- but the most realistic chance at complete meltdown is a Missouri win in the Big 12 Championship. Combined with Oregon State's pending Pac-10 championship, a Tiger win in K.C. would basically guarantee the second member of the mythical championship game across from the SEC champion will be an at-large selection, either Texas, Oklahoma, USC or, in an extreme case, Utah. There is no way to make this process "right," but Mizzou is in the best position to guarantee that it goes really wrong.

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  1. jhyatt
    1. Posted by jhyatt Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:06 pm EDT

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    what happens if florida loses to fsu but then beats alabama? does that push usc up into the title game? BUT, what if USC doesn't have the pac 10 title? are we looking at utah versus either oklahoma/texas/texas tech?
  2. arrogant bastard
    2. Posted by arrogant bastard Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:51 pm EDT

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    Boycott the bowls. It's the only way to get a playoff.
  3. CuseFanInSoCal
    3. Posted by CuseFanInSoCal Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:48 pm EDT

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    #1, I'm sure it's been posted here by now, but the only way USC will not have at least a share of the Pac 10 title is if they lose to UCLA and Oregon State beats Oregon. Oregon State gets the Pac 10's autobid in the event of a tie, but they're co-champs. The same thing happened in 2002 in the Big Ten, though some weirdness in how the BCS worked then meant that although Iowa should have gone to the Rose Bowl by Big Ten tiebreakers, they ended up in the Orange instead.
    If Florida loses to FSU and beats Alabama, then it seems extremely likely that USC ends up in the title game, but it will probably be because the pollsters set up their votes to prevent a Big 12 South rematch; the computers will probably be screaming for an Oklahoma/Texas rematch.
  4. Jams
    4. Posted by Jams Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:14 pm EDT

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    The last two weekends of this season are going to be awesome. Why do we want to get rid of the BCS, again?
    I'm fairly confident that the team who ends up winning it all will have very few arguments against them as national champ (other than the half-hearted "What now?"s from an undefeated Utah/Boise/Ball State).
    Okay, a four-team playoff might be permissible.
  5. The World Famous Butt Pirate
    5. Posted by The World Famous Butt Pirate Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:03 pm EDT

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    Hyperbole is so tiresome. A "GAME OF THE CENTURY!!!" comes along about every other year, and now we have to hear about "THE BIGGEST CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAME IN HISTORY." Whatever.
    And Hinton still looks like a pedophile.
  6. Billy M
    6. Posted by Billy M Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:08 pm EDT

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    it seems to me that texas' best shot at the conference title would be a baylor upset of texas tech. tech could really blow it after being humiliated at the hands of the sooners.
  7. offthechimney
    7. Posted by offthechimney Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:43 pm EDT

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    Oklahoma is better than Texas. Usc should be 3 or 4. If you consider the fact that USC pulled their starters in a few of their games, their scores would have launched their rankings higher.
  8. JosephineTX
    8. Posted by JosephineTX Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:21 pm EDT

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    So I guess what I'm hoping for is that OU loses to the Cowboys, then Tech goes to the Big 12 championship but loses to Missouri...then Texas, despite not playing in the Big 12 championship, would still be the only 1-loss team in the Big 12 and probably land at #2 in the BCS to end the season. But whatever...it'll be fun to see how it all plays out.
  9. PhilipL
    9. Posted by PhilipL Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:00 pm EDT

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    I would love to see what happens if everybody looses once... just to see if Utah would get it's bid... how do we know that the Big 12 south is actually that good? i know Oklahoma is pretty good, but they held the most prolific offense in college football to 3 td's... USC, Florida, and Alabama all have D's that are much much more difficult to handle, but since those three teams only beat each other, the computers basically place them 1,2,3 in terms of difficulty of their schedule. I personally believe that's complete and utter bull. This is the same reason why an over classed Ohio State wound up in the Championship game two years in a row. Ohio beat everybody in their conference those two years just to be found out in the last game of the season. Who have Tech, Texas, and OU beaten besides themselves?
    We need a playoff because of this. It complete and utter bull to have Texas Tech be completely humiliated and still ahead of both USC and Florida in the Computer polls... Both these teams were within a touchdown of winning, granted that they both lost to lower class teams, but as the seasons progressed... they've turned out to be better than people thought. Oregon State has a chance to be co-champions of the PAC 10 and Ole Miss turned out to be # 2 in the SEC West... ahead of last year's champions LSU.
    Where is Obama when you need him?
  10. pine tar
    10. Posted by pine tar Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:55 pm EDT

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    hey off your rocker,
    TEXAS beat ou and
    every team w class pulls their starters!
    usc is not the only team to do so...
    HOOK EM HORNS!
  11. SpartanDan
    11. Posted by SpartanDan Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:11 pm EDT

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    offthechimney: Who has USC beaten? OSU minus Beanie and in Pryor's first game, and that's about it. I'd take all three of the Big XII South chaos crew, the SEC title contenders, and maybe Penn State and Utah ahead of them for the title game.
  12. Mark S
    12. Posted by Mark S Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:08 pm EDT

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    I still think if Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma St., Texas is in the best spot. I can't see the pollsters moving Tech up that much; I mean, you've gotta keep them behind Oklahoma, right?
    I'm a little surprised how much the computers hate Florida and USC. Florida will be all right if it wins out, but USC would need a miracle to get to the championship.
  13. The Heffalump
    13. Posted by The Heffalump Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:05 pm EDT

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    This is the chaos that anti-playoff fans love. This is why we hate the idea of a second (playoff) season. This is the best regular season ever.
  14. JosephineTX
    14. Posted by JosephineTX Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:21 pm EDT

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    I think USC really is very good and could beat most of the teams that SpartanDan is suggesting are better. Unfortunately, we don't really know because they played in a lousy conference this year. Only a playoff would tell us the answer.
  15. kate r
    15. Posted by kate r Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:47 pm EDT

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    Utah SHOULD be ahead of USC. They beat Oregon State, who USC lost to and the MWC is 9-1 against the Pac 10. But who am I to expect that people put the facts over the the logos on the helmet?
  16. MikeLew
    16. Posted by MikeLew Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:43 pm EDT

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    Mark S at 13- If Oklahoma loses to OkSU, then Texas Tech goes to the Big XII Championship game. If they win that, then there's no way 11-1 Texas goes ahead of 12-1 Texas Tech, especially since TT would be conference champs and would have beaten Texas head to head. If that happens, You'll probably see USC hop into the championship game against the winner of the Florida-Alabama game(assuming they both win their games before the SEC Championship)
  17. D.N. Nation
    17. Posted by D.N. Nation Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:45 pm EDT

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    "I'm sure it's been posted here by now, but the only way USC will not have at least a share of the Pac 10 title is if they lose to UCLA and Oregon State beats Oregon. Oregon State gets the Pac 10's autobid in the event of a tie, but they're co-champs."
    And Georgia was the SEC East co-champ last year, and finished with the same conference record as LSU. That mattered all of...nothing.
    If Oregon State beats Oregon, USC shouldn't play for the national title. The precedent has been set; now ESPN and other Trojan stenographers have to deal with it.
  18. heartbeat of da lone star
    18. Posted by heartbeat of da lone star Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:14 pm EDT

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    if ou beats ok state and texas beats a & m no matter what texas has to be ahead of ou cuz they beat them iun a neutral game and texas beat ok state too so ou just cant jump texas cuz they beat them later in teh season thats just stupid. and texas had teh number 1 toughest schedule in the nation! HOOK EM HORNS!
  19. Mark S
    19. Posted by Mark S Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:08 pm EDT

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    I don't know Mike, you're assuming a lot pollsters will move USC ahead of Texas. I also don't think USC is going to get much love from the computers for beating up Notre Dame and UCLA.
    Winning your conference is not a prerequisite for playing in the title game. In 2001 (Nebraska) and 2003 (Oklahoma) teams got there without winning their conferences.
  20. CuseFanInSoCal
    20. Posted by CuseFanInSoCal Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:48 pm EDT

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    D.N. Nation, the SEC East is a division, not a conference. HTH. The SEC designates the winner of the SEC championship game as its champion. They didn't have to expand to 12 schools and play the moneygrab game, err, championship game, but they did. They've got to live with the consequences. And one of those consequences is that losers of a divisional tiebreaker have pretty much no shot at the BCS title game, no matter how silly the divisional tiebreaker gets.
    As you probably failed to read, the precedent for a conference co-champ playing in the BCS title game was set when Ohio State and Iowa were Big Ten co-champs in 2002 -- and the Buckeyes beat Miami for the BCS title.
  21. ltownokie
    21. Posted by ltownokie Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:29 pm EDT

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    heartbeat what are you smoking first of all UT did not have the toughest schedule. UW did I think. UT beat OK state at home by 4 points so if OU goes to Stillwater and pulls out the whoopin stick on the pokes then that will be enough proof that OU is Better team than texas. UT won in Oct. but that dosen't make them the better team. If you wanna talk all the head to head bologna then we need a playoff.
  22. bayani g
    22. Posted by bayani g Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:15 pm EDT

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    i really think that bcs rating sucks;what else does florida gators have to prove to be #1.put alabama,texas,oklahoma,etc.gators will beat them. BRG(santa clara)
  23. starman_123
    23. Posted by starman_123 Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:39 pm EDT

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    Ok can someone tell me why the Horns are rated #2, the Littany Lions rated #7 or gators #4 or USC rated #6? I'm asking for an objective explanation rather than a biased rant as to who is better. Before you replay, do you now believe we should have play-off system: top eight teams, winner takes all?
  24. just4funsies
    24. Posted by just4funsies Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:44 pm EDT

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    It's even stranger than that... The "computers" got Utah rated higher than Florida, who would drag the Utes out to the woodshed and scar them for LIFE. Like they say: "To err is human, but to REALLY f--k up requires a COMPUTER"...
  25. Peachy
    25. Posted by Peachy Thu Sep 03, 2009 6:56 pm EDT

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    As the man said at the beginning - when the computers are giving you whacky numbers, it's probably related to margin of victory. Forcing the computer chappies to drop that component was - in my ever so humble opinion - the single stupidest mistake made by the powers that be. (You'll note that in Sagarin's MOV-based ranking, USC & UF have been first and second for several weeks running now.)

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