Dr. Saturday - NCAAF

In a perfect world, the Doc would be given carte blanche to publicly torch the Bowl Championship Series in effigy and institute the elaborate, double-elimination battle royale of his dreams. But we live in the world we live in, so each Sunday the Doc looks at what the new BCS numbers mean for the rest of the season. Rooting interest: chaos. Always chaos.

As predicted, the machines bit hard for Oklahoma's win over Oklahoma State, despite the paper-thin finish in the human polls: Oklahoma finished one measly point ahead of Texas for No. 2 in the Coaches' poll, 1,397 points to 1,396, and just six points back of the Longhorns in the Harris poll, whose members were apparently swayed enough by the Horns' "45-35" sloganeering to move UT back in front of the Sooners, 2,575 points to 2,569. If you had to pick a winner in the human polls, by the narrowest possible margins, it's probably Texas. But essentially, it's a tie.

It's not as close according to the computers: Oklahoma took three first-place votes from the machines to only one for Texas (which was subsequently dropped from UT's average as the high score) and finished in front of the Longhorns in four out of six computer ballots. The Sooners are headed to the Big 12 Championship game because of the computers, and it has nothing to do with "style points" -- the algorithms aren't even allowed to note OU's gaping point totals or margins of victory. If the conference schedule was basically a wash, I have to think the difference was strictly Oklahoma's non-conference wins over a pair of top-20 teams, TCU and Cincinnati, which were vastly better than Texas' best out-of-conference wins, over Arkansas and Rice.

This is simultaneously fair to Oklahoma and unfair to Texas, and also not the most interesting result of this week's effort. Take a look at the computer averages: Alabama ranks third, behind the 'Horns and Sooners, and the Tide were ranked fourth or fifth by three out of the six machines (again, strength of schedule, people. Think twice about those body bag games with Tulane and Western Kentucky). In the same vein, an email from a worried Florida voter popped up this morning in my inbox for the second time in just a few days:

UF is still #6 in Sagarin's rankings today, and not really anywhere close to #5 Utah. How sure ARE we that the computers will jump UF up after playing a 13th game? And how sure are we that if they don't, even a #1 ranking from the humans would be enough to keep UF #2 ahead of the Big 12 South runner-up? I would like someone somewhere to run through this with more than just a "Florida and Alabama in a semi-final" bit of "analysis."

This is a great point that I'm not sure I would have considered otherwise, and that most people are overlooking in their rush to deem Alabama-Florida the winner-take-all primer for the mythical championship. That's certainly true for Alabama if it finishes 13-0, and I assume it's true for Florida in the human polls if the Gators take the mighty SEC at 12-1. But the computers? That's not so certain.

My concerned emailer is right: Florida's highest rank in any of the six computer polls is third (Richard Billingsley); after that UF is fouth, sixth, sixth, sixth and seventh, respectively. Compare that with Texas:

There is at least three positions difference between the Horns and Gators in every computer poll except Richard Billingsley's. So how much is beating Alabama -- which, again, comes into the game ranked behind Texas and Oklahoma in the computer average -- worth? The humans are all but guaranteed to vote Florida into the championship with a win Saturday, any kind of win. But will it be worth enough in the computer polls (I'm thinking at least two positions per computer) to close that very wide gap with Texas? That's a shaky guess.

Chaos is not Missouri upsetting Oklahoma; in fact, that's very clean: Texas will play the SEC champion, whoever it is. Chaos is Florida beating Alabama, and still missing out because the computers are set on an OU-Texas rematch.

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  1. Jack H
    1. Posted by Jack H Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:31 pm EDT

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    1st. Go sooners
  2. Jack H
    2. Posted by Jack H Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:31 pm EDT

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    1st. Go sooners
  3. bhesse73@...
    3. Posted by bhesse73@... Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:06 pm EDT

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    Sooners should be ahead of texas
  4. Steve
    4. Posted by Steve Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:25 pm EDT

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    Picking OU is probably the right result, but for the wrong reason. Conference championships (divisional or otherwise) should be decided only on what happens during conference play. Imagine if the conference records were exactly the same but Texas and Oklahoma had each dropped one OOC game. Tech would have gotten the nod, despite their three way tie and the beating that Oklahoma put on them.
    It doesn't make sense to me that if Missouri somehow manages to beat the Sooners (I don't know how, maybe aliens will be involved) that Texas should get the nod. PSU and USC, who are actually champions of their respective conferences, should be part of the equation in that unlikely event.
    Oh well.
  5. chuck
    5. Posted by chuck Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:25 pm EDT

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    Will the BCS let Texas and OU play for the National title????
  6. Eddie N
    6. Posted by Eddie N Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:51 pm EDT

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    USC is still the BEST! East Coast Bias equals Bowl Romps year after year! When will you learn!
    We want FLORIDA!
  7. ct76
    7. Posted by ct76 Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:31 pm EDT

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    SMQ - it's great to see that you are already mentioning the potential real BCS Armageddon. If the Gators don't crush Alabama in convincing fashion, the human polls may not put them #1 . And their SOS isn't as good as OU or UT, and since their loss is worse than either of them as well, the computers likely won't (over)react like the human pollsters.
    Here is one person rooting for chaos in the form of a Texas - OU rematch for the MNC.
  8. chuck
    8. Posted by chuck Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:25 pm EDT

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    It seems to me that if you ley USC or PennSt. jump ahead of Texas,then BCS rankings have no bearing.
  9. fan of real Big 12 winner
    9. Posted by fan of real Big 12 winner Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:45 pm EDT

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    Well once again the BCS (backs cheating sooners) disregard thier own rules when one team beats the other team head up. Remember the Raiders were eliminated because they lost to OU....well if memory serves me correctly.....Texas beat OU. Hum....to bad that the BCS (backs cheating sooners) disregards their own rules in favor of thier favorite year after year.
  10. Eddie N
    10. Posted by Eddie N Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:51 pm EDT

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    HA!
    TEXAS vs Oklahoma BCS Championship Game... the east coast bias cost you guys the chance... big 12 weaseld in =D
    Still want FLORIDA
    Trojans 31 Florida 3
  11. Eddie N
    11. Posted by Eddie N Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:51 pm EDT

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    TROJANS have been playing horribly all year and still look like the best team in the nation... Nobody good wants to play the USC!
    Who ever USC plays come BOWL time THEY WILL BE EXPOSED!
    TROJANS! TROJANS! TROJANS!
  12. deanmichaelgarcia
    12. Posted by deanmichaelgarcia Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:39 pm EDT

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    A texas-ou final would be great. Seeing florida get left out even after winning the sec is exactly what college football needs. Maybe then there would be enough hatred of the bcs that we would be blessed with a playoff.
  13. DC
    13. Posted by DC Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:46 pm EDT

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    Texas should have won it based on strength of schedule (their opponents combined record is one game better than the Sooners or Red Raiders) or based on the fact that they had the best in-conference, you know since that's what it is all about, performance by virtue of beating Missouri which is the only thing that sets the 3 apart in-conference.
    If OU wins then that win over them looks better...an OU-UT National Championship game would be huge.
  14. EricP
    14. Posted by EricP Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:06 pm EDT

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    The Colley Matrix has a feature on their website that allows you to enter whatever games you want to to see how it will play out in their system.
    adding Florida def Alabama and Oklahoma def Missouri drops Texas to #2 and moves Florida to #3. similar movement all around should definitely move Florida ahead of Texas, unfortunately.
  15. Credit
    15. Posted by Credit Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:34 pm EDT

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    We learned two years ago that voters will manipulate their ballots to avoid a rematch in the championship game, even if they think the rematch involves the two best teams in the country. If it looks like Texas may stay ahead of Florida, every SEC voter in the coaches and Harris poll will drop the horns a couple of spots just to seal the deal.
  16. brandon w
    16. Posted by brandon w Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:15 pm EDT

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    U can't use the mizzou game as a tie breaker neither ou or tech played mizzou but they both beat kansas who beat mizzou also beat osu who beat mizzou....it is what it is sooners r in horns r out and im pleased but i would love an ou ut nc game.... i think the gators r overrated as well usc and there anemic offense
  17. SpartanDan
    17. Posted by SpartanDan Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:11 pm EDT

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    #12: The other two both beat Nebraska, who had the same conference record as Missouri (and, arguably, a tougher conference schedule since they played two of the Big Three, not just one). All three beat a 4-4 team and a 2-6 team from the other division as well. I'd agree that something objective (strength of schedule, although that fails in conference so it would have to go to all games played) would be better than using the BCS rankings, though.
  18. TV_Pete
    18. Posted by TV_Pete Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:00 pm EDT

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    "The humans are all but guaranteed to vote Florida into the championship." Seeing as the voters dropped Florida from 3rd to 4th I think this is far from guaranteed. A 5th or 6th place computer finish, plus 2nd in the polls (which is not guaranteed and could be close), may not be enough to get 2nd place in the BCS rankings. This is especially true if the ESPN crew continues to talk to everyone about how Texas was great and won the original match-up on a neutral field. (I only remember one or two of most of the commentators who were favor of Oklahoma)
    That could easily result in Florida playing against an undefeated non-Big 6 team in the Sugar Bowl (repeat of last year's Georgia against Hawaii). Assuming Florida wins big, the AP poll would likely leave Florida in 1st place with the winner of Texas-Oklahoma winning the BCS trophy.
    I also disagree with the current computer rankings which are not the preferred and well-researched choices of mathematicians like Sagarin. Let him use his Rankings (a combination of his Predictor, his first in the BCS algorithm, and which is comparable to that used to help determine the March Madness teams and seedings and the current ELO-Chess). They require the computer rankings to be stupid (no margin of victory, no home field advantage). I still think the AP poll is probably a more accurate representation of how I think it shakes out (if not the Sagarin Rankings/Predictor or Football Outsiders' FEI rankings), but we are stuck with the Coaches Poll (who may watch one game besides their own) and the Harris Poll.
  19. mangere_bridge
    19. Posted by mangere_bridge Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:12 pm EDT

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    Florida seem pretty safe. If they and Oklahoma win, I think the vast majority of pollsters would put Florida ahead of Texas (with any Longhorn sympathizers more than offset by #1 votes for the Gators), which should overshadow any computer difference.
    The bot I want someone to run the numbers for is Anderson & Hester (currently: Bama, Utah, Texas, Oklahoma, Boise St, Florida). Florida would get a huge boost from a win next week, and if it's large enough to move them past Texas they can book their spot.
  20. citizenstribune
    20. Posted by citizenstribune Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:25 pm EDT

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    leave out the c out of "bcs" and you'll know what i think of ou going to the big 12 title. Another lOUsy result. Texas beat OU head-to-head. Period. And I've been to the Cotton Bowl for OU-UT games and it's not a neutral field. It favors OU because the tunnel to the lockerrooms comes out from under the OU end of the field and the hayseeds are constantly pelting UT players with crap. At least this year, for the third time in 4 years, they had to slink back across the state line with a 45-35 loss. I hope Missou wins so the right team will be playing for the title.
  21. Jorge D
    21. Posted by Jorge D Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:32 pm EDT

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    hmmm ok, right now the gators should be concerned, but if they beat alabama, they'll have a lock in the NC game, i think the computers will give them the edge, first cause they would have beaten the #1 team in the nation, and texas doesnt even have a game...so, as the computers boost the sooners this week, they would do the same to florida....
    Bring them gators!!!....GO SOONERS!!!
  22. The Law Dog
    22. Posted by The Law Dog Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:54 pm EDT

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    Are we ready to say "screw the freakin' computers" and go back to the two polls? Who cares if they split on occasion. It is better two have two "co-champions" than to have a real contender like Texas or Florida left out!
  23. Carey
    23. Posted by Carey Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:21 pm EDT

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    at the rate mack brown whines about the horns situation, (here's a hint mack, win all your games, schedule other than non conference gimmees) I think that Texas will be crowned champs right now, throw out the tie rules he agreed to, screw the bowl games. By god, they are the longhons,and they are entitled.
  24. Carey
    24. Posted by Carey Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:21 pm EDT

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    I think a good course that ought to be manditory for all incoming freshman at UT is 'whining for Mack/101'. Seems enough are taking it already anyway. 35000 'remember' signs, flyovers in stillwater, call in's by mack during ou/osu game. Nice. Maybe a better class for freshman would be Dignity and Class/101.
  25. Randall B.
    25. Posted by Randall B. Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:42 pm EDT

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    What will be fair is if Oklahoma loses to Missouri because they wont beat Alabama or Florida or USC or even if they play Texas again.Go Alabama,Go Florida,Go USC,Go Texas,Go Missouri Win.

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