Dr. Saturday - NCAAF

In a perfect world, the Doc would be given carte blanche to publicly torch the Bowl Championship Series in effigy and institute the elaborate, double-elimination battle royale of his dreams. But we live in the world we live in, so each Sunday the Doc looks at what the new BCS numbers mean for the rest of the season. Rooting interest: chaos. Always chaos.

The more things change ... well, actually, we wouldn't know about that. We knew going into the weekend that there was infinitesimal chances of movement at the top, so to dispense with the formalities: The top seven is identical to last week's top seven, which was identical to the top seven the week before that. Florida, Alabama and Texas have occupied the top three slots in various orders in all six BCS polls this year and have no realistic expectation of relinquishing them, probably even after the Gators or Tide take a hit in the SEC Championship game. The only team that fell out of the top 10 was No. 9 LSU, which was probably overrated with no really quality wins, anyway (and remains so at No. 15 after its loss at Ole Miss, which somehow checks in 10 full spots below the Tigers, at No. 25, despite the head-to-head win, an identical record and a practically identical set of wins. But if we get into the injustices outside of the top 10 -- BYU is still in the top 20? For what? -- we'll be here all night).

The time is coming to roll out some moral outrage on behalf of undefeated TCU and Cincinnati for their pending snubs from the championship game, but by the system's logic, there's less and less point discussing their chances of crashing the Rose Bowl as the chances of any of the top three losing keep going down. (See below.)

The only relevant discussion left, then, is the jockeying for position for the last two at-large spots. TCU and the loser of the SEC Championship are pretty clearly locked into the first two spots, leaving Penn State/Iowa, Oklahoma State and Boise State in line for the last two. If there was any justice, the slots would fall to the two higher-ranked options in that quartet, Iowa and Boise State. But since the at-large process is primarily about tickets, ratings and other financial concerns, Penn State and Oklahoma State are the better bets -- if the Cowboys finish off sinking rival Oklahoma's dismal season Saturday in Norman. If the Big Ten is practically assured of filling one of those slots with the Nittany Lions or Hawkeyes, Boise's only opportunity probably lies with the Sooners knocking OSU from the running. Otherwise, the Broncos become something of a charity case, hoping against hope the Fiesta Bowl committee is more interested in their stellar record and ranking than the much less impressive track record of smaller conference teams when it comes to filling seats and pulling eyeballs.

For chaos' sake. There are two possible scenarios for breaking up the inevitable Texas vs. SEC Champion showdown and lifting either TCU or Cincinnati into the BCS Championship game, and they're both pretty farfetched:

• Texas loses one of its final two games to Texas A&M or Nebraska.
 • Alabama or Florida loses its regular season finale to Auburn or Florida State, respectively, and that surprise loser rebounds to win the SEC Championship.

In the first case, Texas doesn't quite carry the cachet with its schedule (note that the Longhorns are still ranked below Cincinnati according to the computers) to hold onto one of the top two spots with a loss; if UT falls, TCU or Cincinnati will be waiting to fill the void, depending on whether the Bearcats move up with a solid win over Pittsburgh. The best outcome for the darkhorses is still a Texas loss.

A one-loss SEC champion is a tougher scenario: Even in the extremely unlikely event 'Bama or Florida falls this week, the redemptive hype of the SEC title game is still likely to lift the winner into the BCS Championship, even with a loss. At least in that scenario, though, there would be no end of controversy over the probable snubs, which is much better than the unchanging status quo we've been dealt for the last month-and-a-half.

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  1. Alaska Hokie
    1. Posted by Alaska Hokie Sun Nov 22, 2009 10:15 pm EST

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    Well _of course_ we'll get some craziness in these last two weeks. The regular season is the BCS playoff, remember?
  2. Dan
    2. Posted by Dan Sun Nov 22, 2009 10:21 pm EST

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    I'm not sure what the fascination is with TCU, Cincinnati and Boise State. Sure they haven't lost a game, but even so, they are hardly as deserving of making it to the championship game as an undefeated SEC and Big-12 champ.
    Beyond that, and even with the whining about FIU and Chatanooga, is anyone going to claim they play as tough a schedule as the top three teams? According to Sagarin, the average SOS ranking for Alabama, Florida and Texas is 49th; for the three "outsiders," 74th.
    We're very, very likely to be heading to a real "playoff' game between two unbeatens, one of which will move on to play for it all. As far as I'm concerned, that's about as much football drama as you should expect in December.
  3. John
    3. Posted by John Sun Nov 22, 2009 10:28 pm EST

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    Oklahoma State is a much greater risk for ticket sales than Bloise. Oklahoma State has NEVER (look it up) sold out a bowl game. Also, they have not sold out a single home game this year. It would not be an overstatement to say that they are the weakest of all teams in the Top 14 in terms of attendance and fan travel. The only competition they have is from TCU, who likewise is a miserable track record of home sellouts (one this season, when ESPN Gameday came to town).
  4. A!
    4. Posted by A! Sun Nov 22, 2009 10:37 pm EST

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    The Big ten will have three teams in the top 14, which just about guarantees Iowa/Penn St getting a BcS bid.
    Boise's chances of reaching a BcS game rest entirely on the Big XII...
    the Broncos are in if:
    -Texas beats Nebraska
    AND
    -Ok St loses
    the Broncos are out if:
    - Ok St wins at Norman
    OR
    - Nebraska beats Texas (Huskers would get the Auto, Horns get at-large)
    No one thought K-State would beat Oklahoma in 2004
  5. Double B
    5. Posted by Double B Sun Nov 22, 2009 10:47 pm EST

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    @2
    When all is said and done, Cincinnati will have a better schedule than Texas and TCU will be in the vicinity. Boise will pretty clearly not. The Big XII is a #!&*show of suck. Texas has 1 victory over a team in Sagarin's top 25--Oklahoma State who's at exactly 25. Both Cincinnati and TCU deserve to be in the conversation regarding a BCS championship game bid w/Texas. Unfortunately, it's not a perfect world.
  6. LongTrans
    6. Posted by LongTrans Sun Nov 22, 2009 11:13 pm EST

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    Cincy loses to Pitt. So they will be a non-factor. TCU is tough. I think they would be a great game against any of the big 3. I would love to see them up against bama. I think they would win. Texas v Florida for NC. Will be a good game. Not as good as Texas v USC, which was a great game, but a good game nevertheless. And poor Boise will always be on the outside looking in. As long as they let teams like Louisiana Tech put up 35 points on them, what can they expect. Poor boise.
  7. Simon M
    7. Posted by Simon M Sun Nov 22, 2009 11:17 pm EST

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    @Dan
    According to the NCAA's own strength of schedule, of the unbeatens only Alabama has a higher SOS than TCU.
    Even taking into account that the SEC championship will boost the SOS of Florida/Alabama, using it as your main argument just does not hold up with Texas having a measly 50th.
    Not to mention that the very Sagarin rankings which you quote rank TCU above Texas. Which sort of makes you look silly. Even using the Sagarin SOS, comparing the average of Ala/Flo/Tex to Cin/TCU/Boi is disingenous, since Boise's 96 drags it way down. NO ONE is arguing Boise should be in the national championship game at this point.
    P.s.: YAHOO FIX YOUR DAMN SITE ALREADY. Enough is enough.
  8. CuseFanInSoCal
    8. Posted by CuseFanInSoCal Mon Nov 23, 2009 12:02 am EST

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    Boise's out in any case, I think. If Okie State qualifies, we get an Okie State / TCU Fiesta. If they don't, Virginia Tech is almost certainly eligible, so the Hokies probably slip into the BCS for a boring Iowa / Virginia Tech Fiesta (becaue the Orange won't set up an all-ACC game, though it wouldn't be a rematch if Clemson beats Georgia Tech).
  9. Clam
    9. Posted by Clam Mon Nov 23, 2009 2:17 am EST

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    BYU, with their best quarterback in 25 years, is still in the top 20 because their only losses are to a Bobby Bowden team and TCU, arguably the best balanced team in the country. And they beat a healthy Sam Bradford team on a neutral site. If a Big Six paper tiger like LSU or teams like Nebraska, or Rutgers had those credentials, it wouldn't even be an issue. Still no respect for the MWC.
  10. genius_man16
    10. Posted by genius_man16 Mon Nov 23, 2009 3:03 am EST

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    Boise State probably will get a BCS bid this year because of all the negative publicity that will happen if they don't. You have an undefeated team that beat the (possible) Pac-10 Champion, against a two loss Oklahoma St. (Iowa should be the other Big 10 representative, based on the fact that they beat Penn State on their home field no less) and Oklahoma State hasn't really beaten anyone notable. Unless Texas Tech is notable.
    If everyone continues to win out, the 10 teams should look like this, if there is any semblance of common sense within the bowl committee's.
    Alabama
    Florida
    Texas
    TCU
    Cincinnati
    Georgia Tech
    Ohio State
    Oregon
    Iowa
    Boise State
  11. bobby
    11. Posted by bobby Mon Nov 23, 2009 4:55 am EST

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    #7 simon dont know where you get those number you made up for sos but tcu opp are 66-67 fla opp 74-59 tcu will have played 2 big six teams virgina a 3-8 team and clemson a 8-3 team, fla will have played 10 big six schools texas opp are 76-67 and they have played 9 big six teams. while tcu has had a great year and deserve a bcs bowl and the payday to go with it they do not belong in a nat. title game any more then boise state does. but should texas fall to neb. then it is cinni that belongs in the big game vs the winner of al vs fl by virtue of a tougher schedule last i checked mid majors were 19-89 vs big six schools and while i admit tcu is doing great it is really like compairing apples and oranges to compair big six teams to mid-majors or do you not understand why they are called mid-majors
  12. Alaska Hokie
    12. Posted by Alaska Hokie Mon Nov 23, 2009 5:58 am EST

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    CuseFan, I'd love to see VT in a BCS bowl, but we blew that chance by losing to UNC.
  13. CuseFanInSoCal
    13. Posted by CuseFanInSoCal Mon Nov 23, 2009 9:57 am EST

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    You're #14 right now, which means you're eligible, and you will sell more tickets than Boise State. Unless Oregon State beats Oregon by a field goal or so, you aren't getting jumped by anything that can plausibly happen in the next two weeks.
    Anyone thinking that the BCS bowls will take Boise over Okie State or Virginia Tech or PSU/Iowa (or Oregon, if the aforementioned narrow Oregon State victory in the Civil War scenario plays out) is severely underestimating how mercenary the BCS bowls are.
  14. Isaac
    14. Posted by Isaac Mon Nov 23, 2009 10:33 am EST

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    TCU and Boise St. could quite possibly beat TWO Big Six Conference Champions Oregon and Clemson! That right there should put them both in the BCS and get rid of this Mid Major garbage. Either that or just have a big two conference Big12 and SEC cause that what we usually get left with. Looking at Texas schedule they seem to play creams puffs as well. I honestly think if Boise or TCU played Texas schedule they would still be undefeated. Cincinnati is in a big 6 conference but is not being treated as one so then the big 6 really doesn't make a difference. The SEC (FLorida, ALabama, LSU, and Mississippi??) is a three and a half team conference just like the Big East (Cincy, Pitt, WVU, and South Florida and throw in Rutgers). To me, PAC 10 seems to be the hardest conference to come out of undefeated. You would think with the SEC being so tough that there would be more upset in the conference but alas no, the conference is dominated by two maybe three teams each season and a bunch of mediocity from the rest.
  15. #1 Stunna
    15. Posted by #1 Stunna Mon Nov 23, 2009 10:52 am EST

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    Doesn't matter anyways....Tide will take on anybody...that #1 Defense is suffocating teams...and the offense has found their stride and playmakers again...ROLL TIDE ROLL
  16. A
    16. Posted by A Mon Nov 23, 2009 11:19 am EST

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    Here's the perfect scenario for the rest of the season:
    1) Nebraska defeats Texas in the Big 12 title game
    2) Florida State defeats Florida, while Florida defeats Alabama in the SEC title game
    3) Cincinnati and TCU stay undefeated and play each other for a legitimate national championship
    That would throw a REAL wrench in the works.
    Given the protection some teams have gotten by bad officiating (Florida and Alabama should both have a lost by now) as well at pathetic out-of-conference schedules (Florida, Texas, Alabama) a Bearcat or Frog champion is needed. Either BCS teams must stop booking gutless schedules and start showing up for non-BCS teams, or a playoff has to be enacted, with the champion from each conference. Regardless, the cowardice of BCS teams and conferences has to end.
  17. scottyc5
    17. Posted by scottyc5 Mon Nov 23, 2009 11:23 am EST

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    The fact that either Iowa or PSU could get in the BCS makes me ill. Why does the Big Televen get an at large birth? If GaTech beats UGa, then loses to Clemson, why shouldn't GaTech get an at large over the two Big Televen schools?
    I want Boise St. to get into the BCS just so they can get their doors blown off and we can stop talking about them when they go undefeated again next year (whoops -- VaTech on schedule next year, not happening) or any time in the future.
  18. Doghouse Reilly
    18. Posted by Doghouse Reilly Mon Nov 23, 2009 11:56 am EST

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    I think Auburn has a decent shot at knocking of Alabama. 'Bama will be having a slightly shorter week -- the game is on Friday, not Saturday, whereas Auburn had last weekend off. The game is at Jordan-Hare. Having a six-day week to prepare for the Malzahn Attack does Alabama no favors.
    I'm not saying it's going to happen, and I have no dog in the fight, but it's certainly not "far-fetched." Compared to some of the other high-stakes rivalry games over the past 10-12 years, it's certainly in the realm of possibility.
    So is the Cornhusker D shutting down Texas in the Big 12 finale. Then again, the Cornhuskers displaying a competent offense against Texas is a case of wishing and hoping., at best.
  19. CuseFanInSoCal
    19. Posted by CuseFanInSoCal Mon Nov 23, 2009 12:13 pm EST

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    The Big Ten gets an at-large berth because the discretionary at-large bids are about selling tickets and TV ratings, not the best possible teams (as long as they're in the top 14). I think the Cinci-Pitt loser deserves a spot, being a Big East guy (presuming Pitt doesn't lose to both WVU and Cinci). But the reality is it's Big Ten, then SEC, then Big 12, then the big draws of the other BCS conferences (WVU, Clemson, FSU, Virginia Tech, USC, possibly Oregon), and then the low-drawing BCS conference teams and mid-majors when the bowls have a choice in the matter, beyond keeping their long-term partners happy.
  20. Cutty
    20. Posted by Cutty Mon Nov 23, 2009 1:29 pm EST

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    Dan (post #2): How do you figure Texas is really better then TCU. Against the only common opponent (Wyoming), TCU beat Wyoming by more than Texas did, and the weather elements were far worse (much colder, stronger winds, and snow on ground).
  21. herbert e
    21. Posted by herbert e Mon Nov 23, 2009 1:48 pm EST

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    cuttty you are not really thining tcu could beat TEXAS are you. cmon tcu couldnt bet TEXAS second team. they might could one out of ten. if TEXAS fumbles 4 times and throws 3 int. straight up they wouldnt come within 20. they get 3 4 stars form TEXAS every year TEXAS get 15n to 20 comon get real
  22. Cutty
    22. Posted by Cutty Mon Nov 23, 2009 2:23 pm EST

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    Herbert e: You have not provided any evidence that Texas would beat TCU. You only imply that TCU is not worthy of matching up to Texas. I am not a Texas or TCU fan. I am simply comparing the only common opponent that both have played. TCU's score was bigger (only slightly I admit) and TCU had to overcome far worse weather,
    and TCU had to overcome their own mistakes (four turnovers). TCU handled Wyoming better than Texas did.
    I do believe it would be a great game between Texas and TCU. You imply Texas would beat TCU badly (TCU could only play with Texas' 2nd string and if Texas commits 7 turnovers). You are very bias towards Texas. I don't think Texas would run away with the game. Simply getting great players does not determine the greatness of a team (look at USC). What a coach does with the players determines how great a team becomes.
  23. Studmuffin
    23. Posted by Studmuffin Mon Nov 23, 2009 2:39 pm EST

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    Look guys, TCU, Cincy and Boise State all have very good football teams BUT if they were in the Big 12 or the SEC none of them would be undefeated right now and those of you who truly believe they would be also believe a Chrysler 300 is a Mercedes. When it is all said and done Texas, Florida or Alabama will be #1. Get over it and either improve your schedules or get in another conference. If you do not believe the SEC is tough ask Ohio State, they are 0-8 in bowl games VS. the SEC. I truly wish there was a BCS playoff because it would truly benefit the SEC.
  24. Cutty
    24. Posted by Cutty Mon Nov 23, 2009 3:12 pm EST

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    Actually without bad calls by refs, there would probably not be any undefeated team in the SEC or Big XII.
  25. JF418
    25. Posted by JF418 Mon Nov 23, 2009 3:18 pm EST

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    Who cares? This is all nonsense until we abolish the BCS and get a playoff.
    I am done arguing about a system we all know to be b*llsh*t anyways.
    I am also going to turn off the TV.
    I don't care who wins the "national championship," until we crown one the way a sport is supposed to.

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