Sun Nov 22, 2009 9:30 pm EST

In a perfect world, the Doc would be given carte blanche to publicly torch the Bowl Championship Series in effigy and institute the elaborate, double-elimination battle royale of his dreams. But we live in the world we live in, so each Sunday the Doc looks at what the new BCS numbers mean for the rest of the season. Rooting interest: chaos. Always chaos.
• The more things change ... well, actually, we wouldn't know about that. We knew going into the weekend that there was infinitesimal chances of movement at the top, so to dispense with the formalities: The top seven is identical to last week's top seven, which was identical to the top seven the week before that. Florida, Alabama and Texas have occupied the top three slots in various orders in all six BCS polls this year and have no realistic expectation of relinquishing them, probably even after the Gators or Tide take a hit in the SEC Championship game. The only team that fell out of the top 10 was No. 9 LSU, which was probably overrated with no really quality wins, anyway (and remains so at No. 15 after its loss at Ole Miss, which somehow checks in 10 full spots below the Tigers, at No. 25, despite the head-to-head win, an identical record and a practically identical set of wins. But if we get into the injustices outside of the top 10 -- BYU is still in the top 20? For what? -- we'll be here all night).
The time is coming to roll out some moral outrage on behalf of undefeated TCU and Cincinnati for their pending snubs from the championship game, but by the system's logic, there's less and less point discussing their chances of crashing the Rose Bowl as the chances of any of the top three losing keep going down. (See below.)
The only relevant discussion left, then, is the jockeying for position for the last two at-large spots. TCU and the loser of the SEC Championship are pretty clearly locked into the first two spots, leaving Penn State/Iowa, Oklahoma State and Boise State in line for the last two. If there was any justice, the slots would fall to the two higher-ranked options in that quartet, Iowa and Boise State. But since the at-large process is primarily about tickets, ratings and other financial concerns, Penn State and Oklahoma State are the better bets -- if the Cowboys finish off sinking rival Oklahoma's dismal season Saturday in Norman. If the Big Ten is practically assured of filling one of those slots with the Nittany Lions or Hawkeyes, Boise's only opportunity probably lies with the Sooners knocking OSU from the running. Otherwise, the Broncos become something of a charity case, hoping against hope the Fiesta Bowl committee is more interested in their stellar record and ranking than the much less impressive track record of smaller conference teams when it comes to filling seats and pulling eyeballs.
• For chaos' sake. There are two possible scenarios for breaking up the inevitable Texas vs. SEC Champion showdown and lifting either TCU or Cincinnati into the BCS Championship game, and they're both pretty farfetched:
• Texas loses one of its final two games to Texas A&M or Nebraska.
• Alabama or Florida loses its regular season finale to Auburn or Florida State, respectively, and that surprise loser rebounds to win the SEC Championship.
In the first case, Texas doesn't quite carry the cachet with its schedule (note that the Longhorns are still ranked below Cincinnati according to the computers) to hold onto one of the top two spots with a loss; if UT falls, TCU or Cincinnati will be waiting to fill the void, depending on whether the Bearcats move up with a solid win over Pittsburgh. The best outcome for the darkhorses is still a Texas loss.
A one-loss SEC champion is a tougher scenario: Even in the extremely unlikely event 'Bama or Florida falls this week, the redemptive hype of the SEC title game is still likely to lift the winner into the BCS Championship, even with a loss. At least in that scenario, though, there would be no end of controversy over the probable snubs, which is much better than the unchanging status quo we've been dealt for the last month-and-a-half.
Dr. Saturday is a college football blog edited by Matt Hinton. Email him tips and feedback.

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53 Comments
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Beyond that, and even with the whining about FIU and Chatanooga, is anyone going to claim they play as tough a schedule as the top three teams? According to Sagarin, the average SOS ranking for Alabama, Florida and Texas is 49th; for the three "outsiders," 74th.
We're very, very likely to be heading to a real "playoff' game between two unbeatens, one of which will move on to play for it all. As far as I'm concerned, that's about as much football drama as you should expect in December.
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Boise's chances of reaching a BcS game rest entirely on the Big XII...
the Broncos are in if:
-Texas beats Nebraska
AND
-Ok St loses
the Broncos are out if:
- Ok St wins at Norman
OR
- Nebraska beats Texas (Huskers would get the Auto, Horns get at-large)
No one thought K-State would beat Oklahoma in 2004
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When all is said and done, Cincinnati will have a better schedule than Texas and TCU will be in the vicinity. Boise will pretty clearly not. The Big XII is a #!&*show of suck. Texas has 1 victory over a team in Sagarin's top 25--Oklahoma State who's at exactly 25. Both Cincinnati and TCU deserve to be in the conversation regarding a BCS championship game bid w/Texas. Unfortunately, it's not a perfect world.
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According to the NCAA's own strength of schedule, of the unbeatens only Alabama has a higher SOS than TCU.
Even taking into account that the SEC championship will boost the SOS of Florida/Alabama, using it as your main argument just does not hold up with Texas having a measly 50th.
Not to mention that the very Sagarin rankings which you quote rank TCU above Texas. Which sort of makes you look silly. Even using the Sagarin SOS, comparing the average of Ala/Flo/Tex to Cin/TCU/Boi is disingenous, since Boise's 96 drags it way down. NO ONE is arguing Boise should be in the national championship game at this point.
P.s.: YAHOO FIX YOUR DAMN SITE ALREADY. Enough is enough.
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If everyone continues to win out, the 10 teams should look like this, if there is any semblance of common sense within the bowl committee's.
Alabama
Florida
Texas
TCU
Cincinnati
Georgia Tech
Ohio State
Oregon
Iowa
Boise State
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Anyone thinking that the BCS bowls will take Boise over Okie State or Virginia Tech or PSU/Iowa (or Oregon, if the aforementioned narrow Oregon State victory in the Civil War scenario plays out) is severely underestimating how mercenary the BCS bowls are.
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1) Nebraska defeats Texas in the Big 12 title game
2) Florida State defeats Florida, while Florida defeats Alabama in the SEC title game
3) Cincinnati and TCU stay undefeated and play each other for a legitimate national championship
That would throw a REAL wrench in the works.
Given the protection some teams have gotten by bad officiating (Florida and Alabama should both have a lost by now) as well at pathetic out-of-conference schedules (Florida, Texas, Alabama) a Bearcat or Frog champion is needed. Either BCS teams must stop booking gutless schedules and start showing up for non-BCS teams, or a playoff has to be enacted, with the champion from each conference. Regardless, the cowardice of BCS teams and conferences has to end.
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I want Boise St. to get into the BCS just so they can get their doors blown off and we can stop talking about them when they go undefeated again next year (whoops -- VaTech on schedule next year, not happening) or any time in the future.
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I'm not saying it's going to happen, and I have no dog in the fight, but it's certainly not "far-fetched." Compared to some of the other high-stakes rivalry games over the past 10-12 years, it's certainly in the realm of possibility.
So is the Cornhusker D shutting down Texas in the Big 12 finale. Then again, the Cornhuskers displaying a competent offense against Texas is a case of wishing and hoping., at best.
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and TCU had to overcome their own mistakes (four turnovers). TCU handled Wyoming better than Texas did.
I do believe it would be a great game between Texas and TCU. You imply Texas would beat TCU badly (TCU could only play with Texas' 2nd string and if Texas commits 7 turnovers). You are very bias towards Texas. I don't think Texas would run away with the game. Simply getting great players does not determine the greatness of a team (look at USC). What a coach does with the players determines how great a team becomes.
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I am done arguing about a system we all know to be b*llsh*t anyways.
I am also going to turn off the TV.
I don't care who wins the "national championship," until we crown one the way a sport is supposed to.
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