Dr. Saturday - NCAAF

In a perfect world, the Doc would be given carte blanche to publicly torch the Bowl Championship Series in effigy and institute the elaborate, double-elimination battle royale of his dreams. But we live in the world we live in, so each Sunday the Doc looks at what the new BCS numbers mean for the rest of the season. Rooting interest: chaos. Always chaos.

Oh, it's boring at the top. Florida, Alabama and Texas remain 1-2-3 by healthy margins, even though the computers remain wholly unpersuaded by the Longhorns. These three should be absolutely safe if they keep winning -- certainly the human polls aren't going to consider dropping any of them from the perch without a loss, and Texas should boost its popularity among the machines if it wins this weekend at Oklahoma State. Even if it doesn't, the gulfs in human-computer opinion on the next four teams in line will keep any of them from threatening any of the "Big Three" despite the digital love.

Movin' on up. The big change is the wholesale flop right behind that "Big Three": Iowa, USC and TCU, which ranked 6-7-8 last week, move into the 4-5-6 slots thanks to solid wins by all three -- and, in the case of USC and Iowa, no change in their standing in the human polls. But the computers were suitably impressed by the Trojans and Hawkeyes' tough wins over Oregon State and Michigan State, respectively, bumping SC from a consensus No. 11 last week to No. 9 and rewarding Iowa's last-second triumph with a bump from No. 3 to ... wait for it ... No. 1 this week. Remember: As far as the computers are concerned, a win is a win, people.

Off its pantsing of BYU in Provo, TCU is the most upwardly mobile member of the top 10 this week thanks to a two-spot bump (from No. 8 to No. 6) in the Coaches' poll and a whopping four-spot advance among the computers. If they run the table in the Mountain and Iowa and Texas both drop games down the stretch, the Frogs will have their lobby, and it will probably come bearing circuitboards.

Sayonara, Broncos. The Iowa/USC/TCU advance into the top six comes at the expense of Boise State (No. 4 last week) and Cincinnati (No. 5), which drop to Nos. 7 and 8, respectively, despite blowout wins by both on Saturday. Again, the machines are responsible for the turmoil, docking the Broncos and Bearcats three spots apiece in the computer consensus, presumably as a result of strength of schedule relative to their peers in the contending class.

I'm not sure about Cincinnati, which still has Pittsburgh and West Virginia coming up to boost its strength of schedule, but the three-position tumble almost spells the end of Boise State's already distant title dreams; I can't imagine any of the mediocrities and ne'er-do-wells remaining on the Broncos' schedule adding enough value to lift them back into the top five. In fact, the computers have already moved Oregon in front of the Broncos despite BSU's convincing win over the Ducks in the opener, and the human polls may follow if Oregon upsets USC on Saturday; if the Trojans win in Eugene, it will only solidify their standing in front of Boise. The bloodletting that would have to occur to get the Broncos moving in the right direction is beyond contemplation.

For chaos' sake. Again, the de facto scenario is obviously a collision course between Texas and the Alabama/Florida winner in the SEC Championship game. But there could still be four other undefeated teams at year's end, and any one of Iowa, TCU and Cincinnati (sorry, Boise, the schedule is going to keep you from the discussion) could generate a bonfire of criticism by its exclusion. Better yet: If Texas should fall and the system has to choose among the Hawkeyes, Frogs and Bearcats for the second slot in the championship game when there's no agreement across the board about any of them; if it comes to that, it's even odds that the pollsters just throw up their hands and vote for one-loss USC over one of the unbeaten upstarts, in which case it gets really fun.

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31 Comments

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  1. Peter D
    1. Posted by Peter D Sun Oct 25, 2009 11:19 pm EDT

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    will the world explode if its TCU-Iowa BCS championship?
  2. Ancient Chinese Secret
    2. Posted by Ancient Chinese Secret Sun Oct 25, 2009 11:43 pm EDT

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    The Revolution WIll Be Televised....
    and is brought to you by Nike Vapor Trail Gloves.
  3. TexasHorns
    3. Posted by TexasHorns Mon Oct 26, 2009 12:26 am EDT

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    When was the last convincing WIN by FLORIDA, ALABAMA, IOWA or USC?????
    FIVE WEEKS AGO....
    EVERY WEEK....somebody drops 5-10 spots except SEC leaders that squeek away with WINS against unranked teams....
    Florida steals a win from Arkansas in REFS GATE....REFs banned for season....
    ALABAMA needs two blocked field goals to beat unranked Miss State...
    IOWA needs a TD WITH 2 SECONDS to beat Michigan State....
    USC beats Washington State....the equivalent of Arkansas State (a team Iowa barely beat) after squeezing one from unranked Notre Dame a 20 point dog?????
    EVERY BIG 12 team has been ranked this year except Iowa St., A&M & Baylor...
    How many Big 10 (2) or Pac 10 (2) teams have been ranked??????
    HOW MANY SEC, BIG 10 OR PAC 10 QBs ARE RANKED IN THE TOP 50.....(1)??
    HOW MANY BIG 12 QBs ARE RANKED IN THE TOP 40.......(8)
    SEC............good defense at the top 3......NO PASSING all run
    PAC 10......fair defense at the top 2..........ONLY USC has a fair passing game
    BIG 10.......fair defense at top 2.................NO PASSING all run
    BIG 12.......good defense at top 3.............GREAT PASSING at top fair running game at TEXAS
    IF TEXAS beats formerly ranked Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas Tech then Oklahoma State, Kansas - - -
    what other team will have played 5 RANKED TEAMS in conference......NONE.
  4. ToddS
    4. Posted by ToddS Mon Oct 26, 2009 12:27 am EDT

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    Florida loses to Georgia and South Carolina
    Alabama loses to LSU
    South Carolina beats LSU in the SEC Championship
    Oregon beats USC
    Arizona beats Oregon and USC
    Oklahoma St. beats Texas
    Ohio State beats Iowa
    Penn State beats Ohio State, but loses to Michigan State
    Oklahoma State beats Texas, loses to Oklahoma and proceeds to lose the Big 12 Championship game
    Cinncinati loses to Pitt
    Boise and TCU win out.
    I love the possibility, but I know that if this does happen I will probably see a Notre Dame v. SEC Champion game in the BCS Championship...........
  5. SonicSpeed
    5. Posted by SonicSpeed Mon Oct 26, 2009 12:28 am EDT

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    This could be the year that the BCS just explodes. If we have two no-loss teams non-BCS conferences, and both of them get left out (although TCU is the stronger candidate) of the Title game and say a one-loss USC gets in then the system should just be blown up, and we should go to a playoff system (like the one on of the Yahoo! guys had kicking around a while back).
  6. Ben
    6. Posted by Ben Mon Oct 26, 2009 12:40 am EDT

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    Here's my keen insight, there are going to be a few undefeated teams upset that they don't have a shot at the mythical national title. Personally I'm rooting for 6 undefeated teams. This system is a farce.
  7. CuseFanInSoCal
    7. Posted by CuseFanInSoCal Mon Oct 26, 2009 1:07 am EDT

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    I love how our Texas fan @#4 pretends the Big East isn't a major conference.
    Also, 4 Pac 10 teams are currently in the BCS top 25 (#5 USC, #10 Oregon, #20 Arizona, #24 Cal). Washington was briefly ranked in the AP poll after beating USC (before the initial BCS ratings came out).
    3 Big Ten teams are currently in the BCS top 25 (#4 Iowa, #12 Penn State, #17 Ohio State). Wisconsin and Michigan have also been in the top 25 this year.
    As for the Big East... 3 teams are currently ranked (Cinci, WVU, and Pitt). USF has also been ranked this year. And there's a decent chance UConn and/or Rutgers will crack the top 25 at some point.
  8. CARL
    8. Posted by CARL Mon Oct 26, 2009 1:11 am EDT

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    #4
    LSU plays or has played:
    Georgia
    Florida
    Auburn
    Alabama
    Mississippi
    Arkansas
    That is a conference schedule that the Little 12 can't match.
  9. Daniel H
    9. Posted by Daniel H Mon Oct 26, 2009 1:32 am EDT

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    I am so sick of the BCS computers, I don't think that TCU or Boise should be involved in the national championship conversation because they don't play a tough enough schedule. But I do think we should have a playoff system that gives them the oppertunity to prove me wrong. It would also be nice to see Some of the top teams in the country actually play somebody outside of their conference, yeah I mean Florida, Penn State, Texas and several others.
  10. bobby
    10. Posted by bobby Mon Oct 26, 2009 2:12 am EDT

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    #4 your comment about about big 12 and other conf. rankings you are kidding right texas has not played a team with less then three losses and since you can not seem to be able to count or read texas will have played three ranked teams by the end of the season if kansas does not slip before you get to them you barely got passed ok without bradford on the field. dont get me wrong it has been a down year for most everyone and texas does deserve to be third but you need to quit drinking before you speak
  11. Lucas
    11. Posted by Lucas Mon Oct 26, 2009 2:54 am EDT

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    @#4...
    When have Florida, Alabama, Iowa, or USC last looked convincing? What a ridiculous question...sure, none of them looked great last week, but Alabama dominated decent (and ranked) South Carolina and Mississippi teams the previous two weeks, Florida held top-10 LSU to 3 points three weks ago, and Iowa completely shut down (5-2) Wisconsin on the road last week n the second half, resulting in a game that wasn't even nearly close at the end. Not to mention, they didn't need a TD at the end to beat MSU, they just needed anything but a miracle play on MSU's 3rd and 18 to win 9-6.
    It sounds to me like "convincing" is just another word for "offensive showcase" in your book. And that's just sad. Offense may get you on the highlight reel, but defense wins championships.
    Further, you're making claims that are just untrue...Kansas State was never ranked, and never will be. Same is true of Texas Tech and Colorado. So half your conference has at some point in time been ranked. That's hardly anything to be proud of. As the other poster pointed out, there are plenty of teams in the Pac-10 and Big Ten that have been ranked.
    And what are the big wins that Texas can claim? Squeaking by 4-3 Oklahoma missing their star quarterback? Missouri who's now lost three in a row? Please. Iowa has beaten Arizona and Michigan at home, Penn State, Wisconsin, a Michigan State team that's much better than its record, and blown out 5-3 Iowa State on the road. It's easy to thump your chest and point to your great stats when you play at most two teams of consequence. Your last sentence makes absolutely no sense. At the end of the regular season, you'll have faced two ranked teams - Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, and neither of them will be ranked very highly, whereas Iowa will have played at least three and probably four (PSU, OSU, Wisconsin, and Arizona).
    Anyway, I wouldn't be surprised if Iowa ended up passing Texas in the BCS, just because they still have plenty of room to climb in the human polls, and Texas is pretty much maxed out. Not that I'd want that as a Big Ten fan...I really don't think having two Big Ten teams in the BCS will be good for the conference. I think they could actually do well in the bowls if they just have one.
  12. Alan
    12. Posted by Alan Mon Oct 26, 2009 3:39 am EDT

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    Um, Texas fan at # 4, you got a few facts wrong. Iowa has beaten 4 teams that have been ranked in the BCS top 25, and they beat all of those teams by double digits. Texas has beaten 1 team that has been in the BCS top 25, and that was 4-3 Oklahoma, without their All American QB and TE, and they beat them by 3. And this "Great" passing game Texas has? The only legit defense they faces, Oklahoma, Texas had 127 passing yards.. REAL impressive. This maybe just me talking, but if the "greatest" team in the country forces 5 turnovers against Oklahoma, shouldn't they have scored more than 16 points with that potent offense you speak of? And what is the third good defense in the Big 12? Take out Oklahoma and Texas, and every team in the Big 12 has had at least 35 points scored on them once, and the only ones to hold every opponent under 45 points are Kansas and Baylor. Do Kansas or Baylor have a good defense? If Alabama runs the table, they will have beaten LSU, Florida, South Carolina, Ole Miss, and Auburn, 5 conference foes that were ranked at one time. Plus they played Virginia Tech. Baylor, Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas State and Texas A&M are all BAD. Kansas and Nebraska are hardly any better. Texas Tech and Oklahoma State got beat solidly by Houston, and Oklahoma is 4-3.. Hell of a conference that Big 12 is this year.
  13. Rob
    13. Posted by Rob Mon Oct 26, 2009 6:34 am EDT

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    * Oh, it's boring at the top:
    Florida and Alabama would have at least one loss each without dodgy officiating on par with the shafting of Oklahoma in 2006. Next Saturday, both Texas (who's anemic schedule gives a false impression that will be dispelled by Oklahoma State) and USC (facing a rampaging Oregon) are due for a fall, and the leaders of the Big 10 have a habit of choking down the stretch against weak teams; even if Iowa beats the three bottom feeders, they still have to play OSU.
    * Movin' on up:
    TCU could be #3 come next Monday, and only able to move up if they finish 12-0 unless one of USC or Oregon finished 11-1. Regardless, an undefeated TCU would finish at least in the top four, and maybe #1 before the bowl games if the officious SEC had competent officating. This is what happens when a team is able to find multiple BCS opponents with the balls to sign on and play (see below).
    * Sayonara, Broncos:
    If Boise State could find some BCS teams with the balls to sign on an play a home-and-home pair, this wouldn't be a discussion. Blame the teams who refused to play, not the team that showed up.
  14. Zach K
    14. Posted by Zach K Mon Oct 26, 2009 7:37 am EDT

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    Ok UC beats a below average team at home by 31 points and Iowa beats a below average team in the last 2 seconds on the road and pass up UC...huh? USC beats Oregon State at home by a smaller margin then UC did! I'm not by any means saying UC is the best team in college football but as of now they should be 5th or 6th in the nation! Not 8th!
  15. PurdueMatt
    15. Posted by PurdueMatt Mon Oct 26, 2009 8:10 am EDT

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    Iowa's win over Arizona looks pretty good right now. It won't matter though, because they will lose in Columbus.
  16. justin d
    16. Posted by justin d Mon Oct 26, 2009 9:11 am EDT

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    Most of all of you or full of [profane] but I no one thing the best conference is the SEC and has been and will be for awhile to come just look at the recruiting the SEC schools are at the top of that to they go hand and hand the only thing that hurts the SEC is that we beat up on ourselves.The BCS championships have been dominated by the SEC for the past years and Auburn was robbed in those years too when they went undefeated and it does not look any different this year one SEC team will be playing for the BCS title we just dont no who LSU hopefully come on guys just look at the facts the truth is there
  17. elitist jerk
    17. Posted by elitist jerk Mon Oct 26, 2009 10:35 am EDT

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    A lot more of this and I might start to wonder about the legitimacy of the BCS!
    All joking aside, the point I think is that this is shaping up to be yet another year wherein the BCS corners itself into undermining the legitimacy of its own championship. The whole thing depends upon having exactly two undefeated teams at the end of the season. Any more or any less than that and there's just no convincingly "objective" criteria on which to base the decision to elevate 1 loss team A over 1 loss team B and undefeated team C. The differences in conference strength (largely unknown before the bowl games themselves) and the problem of many teams remaining largely untested during the regular season guarantee that any attempt to weigh teams against each other is just comparing a series of apples to oranges. To pretend otherwise is to insult the intelligence of their viewers.
    The sad thing is, there's only one thing that will spur the NCAA to scrap this stupid system, and that's for college football fans to get so fed up with it that they stop watching.
  18. Matt L
    18. Posted by Matt L Mon Oct 26, 2009 10:54 am EDT

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    Not that this was addressed in the post, BUT...as a disgruntled Iowa fan, somewhat tired of all the crap Iowa catches: Iowa's opponent record, outside of playing Iowa, is something like +10, like 28-18 or something like that. The next closest team is Florida, with it's opponents at two games over .500.
    The point is this:
    Iowa is playing, according to what I listed above, arguably the toughest schedule in the NATION this year. Their four road conference games are against the remaining top four teams in the conference. The four conference home games? Oh, they get the next best 4. They miss playing Purdue and Illinois this year. Not exactly the cream of the crop in the Big 10.
    This isn't an argument that Iowa should be in the top 3. It is an argument that completely ignoring the Hawkeyes is ridiculous. I live in Columbia, MO...and that Mizzou team Texas just beat isn't very good, so the Texas commenter at #4 should not be hanging his/her hat on that win.
    All I know is this: 2009 is the most exciting time of my 31 years of life on this planet to be an Iowa Hawkeye fan. Here's hoping it has a fairy tale ending.
  19. Mark R
    19. Posted by Mark R Mon Oct 26, 2009 1:36 pm EDT

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    Does anyone think the Big 10 will stand idlely by at the end of the season if an undefeated Iowa team is left out of the title game in favor of 1-loss USC? If the Hawkeyes win out, and either Texas or both of the SEC twins lose, then Iowa will be playing for the championship. I have no doubt about that whatsoever.
  20. bignasty9600
    20. Posted by bignasty9600 Mon Oct 26, 2009 2:20 pm EDT

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    Undefeated Iowa would get in over 1-loss USC because they would a) be way better in the computers, b) have beaten the same Ohio State team at Ohio State that USC did and c) won't have an embarassing ONE in the loss column like USC.
    I still think Cincy has a chance to pass 1-loss USC if West Virginia & Ptt keep winning. Pitt is one win over Notre Dame on Nov. 7 from being a top 10 team.
  21. achenrocker
    21. Posted by achenrocker Mon Oct 26, 2009 3:48 pm EDT

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    Cincy - are a really good team but will most likely lose to either WV and Pitt
    Iowa - will lose to Ohio st
    TCU - is horriblly overated in an overated conference
    Boise st - besides Oregon St have the weakest schedule I've ever seen and WILL go undefeated
    Texas - if they beat Oklahoma st ,will go undefeated
  22. bobby
    22. Posted by bobby Mon Oct 26, 2009 7:25 pm EDT

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    plus one would fix most of these problems
  23. Tommy Boy
    23. Posted by Tommy Boy Mon Oct 26, 2009 10:34 pm EDT

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    Iowa? Win in the 'Shoe? Hawkeye fans,you all got jokes!!!!!!!!!!! If MSU could play defense when it matters,your team wouldn't be a topic of discussion this week.You don't have the offense to keep our defense on the field,or TP and the offense off of it for any long stretches.Don't get it twisted,Purdue was an abberation;it will be an interesting game nonetheless. Go Bucks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  24. Matt Roste
    24. Posted by Matt Roste Tue Oct 27, 2009 12:00 am EDT

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    For all the nay sayers, keep picking IOWA to lose and not be in the BCS discussion in a few weeks.... it just makes it that much more fun to rub it in your face later, when they are strolling into the Jan 7th game undefeated!!!! GO HAWKS!!!!!!!

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