Sun Nov 02, 2008 9:37 pm EST
In a perfect world, the Doc would be given carte blanche to publicly torch the Bowl Championship Series in effigy and institute the elaborate, double-elimination battle royale of his dreams. But we live in the world we live in, so each Sunday the Doc looks at what the new BCS numbers mean for the rest of the season. Rooting interest: chaos. Always chaos.
First of all, a note tonight on the two relevant human polls, which are nearly identical in spots 1 through 10 and have lost it in many different ways re: Texas. First of all, there's still an unidentified Harris Poll voter out there who either a) Did not stay up late enough Saturday to realize the Longhorns lost, or b) Does not burden himself with such foolishness as "results," because the Horns still received one first place vote in the Harris despite the existence of three major undefeated teams, one of which just beat Texas.
Because it's an isolated incident that just falls under "Who do they let vote in these things, anyway?," that bit of stubbornness actually angers me less than the decision of both the Harris and Coaches polls at large to drop the Longhorns below Oklahoma, a team which, you might recall, lost to Texas by 10 points less than a month ago. This is stupid, unthinking "auto ranking" at its blindest: a single voter ignoring scores on the field is one thing, but when entire polls do it, there is a real glitch in the way people are putting their ballots together. (I should note that, unlike its counterparts, the AP poll still ranks Texas ahead of OU, and Texas Tech ahead of Penn State. But where the BCS is concerned, the writers do not constitute a "relevant poll.")
Leave it to the much-maligned computers to lay a little sanity into the proceedings: the machines are still bullish on the Horns, who remain at No. 3 in their estimation, even ahead of undefeated Penn State. The computers also overrule the humans' preference for Penn State over Texas Tech, bumping the Red Raiders into the coveted second spot by what must be the narrowest margin (0.0086 points ahead of PSU) separating a team from No. 1 or No. 2 in the history of the Series. I don't have the research, but it can't really get much closer than 86 thousandths of a point.
Sitting pretty. The thing is, that margin is certain to grow as the Red Raiders hit the "overdrive" portion of their schedule with Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and then the Missouri/Kansas winner in the Big 12 Championship. Penn State can't match that. From the Lions' perspective, nothing has changed -- the team in front of them now is Texas Tech instead of Texas, but the reality of the remaining schedules for Alabama and Tech compared to the Lions' slate means the status quo will not change. Penn State has to win out and hope for a loss among the top two:

The flipside of the Lions' schedule and status down the stretch is that they remain far more likely than Alabama or Texas Tech to run the table. And if you took a poll, even of the voters that ranked the Raiders ahead of Penn State, my guess is they'd come back with Tech losing to one of the Oklahoma teams -- more likely the Sooners in Norman -- which would throw the Big 12 South into total chaos but simply move the undefeated Lions up to face undefeated Alabama for the mythical championship. So while Alabama and Texas Tech are the only teams that "control their destiny," Penn State should still feel very confident about the chances of one of those teams losing.
A little help? Florida, Texas and Oklahoma are waiting with bated breath for a Tech or Bama stumble, too, and the Gators and Sooners are in position to help their own causes in that regard:

USC, for all intents and purposes, is only included because it's USC and is certainly playing well enough on the field to belong in the discussion. In reality, though, the Trojans' schedule virtually eliminates them from any serious consideration unless everybody in front of them loses. Late-falling dominoes of the last two years notwithstanding, that's not going to happen.
Florida has the simplest path to the top two: barring an unexpected stumble by the Gators against South Carolina or Florida State, a Red Raider loss sets up a blockbuster Florida-Alabama SEC Championship as a virtual play-in game for the mythical championship game. I think this is true even if LSU upsets 'Bama Saturday in Baton Rouge. I don't think there's any question of any one-loss team leaping Penn State. So the way the rest of the schedule shakes out, if the Lions run the table and the second position comes down to a one-loss SEC champion against a one-loss Big 12 champion, my money is on the SEC champion getting the nod -- beating Alabama/Florida is going to carry more weight than the Big 12 South champ beating the Missouri/Kansas winner.
For chaos' sake. The Big 12 South is chaotic enough, but Texas Tech is still integral to the shortest path to system overload: three major undefeated teams at the top -- which would almost certainly wind up excluding Penn State, again -- would lead to wholesale gnashing of teeth on the level of the 2003 and 2004 debacles and a whole spate of calls for reform. The Penn State vs. one-loss USC/SEC/Big 12 champion logjam described above pales in comparison to an undefeated team getting left out in the cold.
Dr. Saturday is a college football blog edited by Matt Hinton. Email him tips and feedback.

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82 Comments
1 - 25 of 82
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1. Ohio State 0.9764
2. Michigan 0.9451
3. USC 0.9430
4. West Virginia 0.7551
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If Tech goes on to beat Oklahoma and Oklahoma State like Texas did, then obviously that is a different story.
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Can we PLEASE just do a playoff already? Who wouldn't want to see the top 8 teams squaring off?
Right now Round 1 would be:
Alabama vs. Utah
Texas Tech vs. USC
Penn St. vs. Oklahoma
Texas vs. Florida
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They show Oklahoma STATE eleventh out of TWENTY FIVE, and the lack of a number six is ESPN being retarded. Oklahoma's #9 should be a number 6. Georgia is the computer number 9.
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yeah penn fans, go ahead and mention the brain fart that usc had in their one loss and how your team was able to beat them... it doesn't matter. you are outclassed and you would not be taken lightly. when a team wants to make a statement, they do. look at florida-georgia, or usc-ohio state. Those were statements and whoever plays against Penn State will be looking to do the same.
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By the way, I hoped to see Penn State do it this year, and they haven't let me down, either.
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Texas has no defense nor does Texas Tech - Heres to (2) losses headed there way. Also, ANY team with a great offense could beat Texas.
Big 12 awsome? Haha. Take a look at Texas - All four of their previous games they have given up an average of 32.2 points per game - just more proof that while yes the Big 12 may be exciting there are no solid teams in that division.
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Missouri didn't. Oklahoma didn't. Oklahoma State didn't.
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1 - 25 of 82