Dr. Saturday - NCAAF

In a perfect world, the Doc would be given carte blanche to publicly torch the Bowl Championship Series in effigy and institute the elaborate, double-elimination battle royale of his dreams. But we live in the world we live in, so each Sunday the Doc looks at what the new BCS numbers mean for the rest of the season. Rooting interest: chaos. Always chaos.

First of all, a note tonight on the two relevant human polls, which are nearly identical in spots 1 through 10 and have lost it in many different ways re: Texas. First of all, there's still an unidentified Harris Poll voter out there who either a) Did not stay up late enough Saturday to realize the Longhorns lost, or b) Does not burden himself with such foolishness as "results," because the Horns still received one first place vote in the Harris despite the existence of three major undefeated teams, one of which just beat Texas.

Because it's an isolated incident that just falls under "Who do they let vote in these things, anyway?," that bit of stubbornness actually angers me less than the decision of both the Harris and Coaches polls at large to drop the Longhorns below Oklahoma, a team which, you might recall, lost to Texas by 10 points less than a month ago. This is stupid, unthinking "auto ranking" at its blindest: a single voter ignoring scores on the field is one thing, but when entire polls do it, there is a real glitch in the way people are putting their ballots together. (I should note that, unlike its counterparts, the AP poll still ranks Texas ahead of OU, and Texas Tech ahead of Penn State. But where the BCS is concerned, the writers do not constitute a "relevant poll.")

Leave it to the much-maligned computers to lay a little sanity into the proceedings: the machines are still bullish on the Horns, who remain at No. 3 in their estimation, even ahead of undefeated Penn State. The computers also overrule the humans' preference for Penn State over Texas Tech, bumping the Red Raiders into the coveted second spot by what must be the narrowest margin (0.0086 points ahead of PSU) separating a team from No. 1 or No. 2 in the history of the Series. I don't have the research, but it can't really get much closer than 86 thousandths of a point.

Sitting pretty. The thing is, that margin is certain to grow as the Red Raiders hit the "overdrive" portion of their schedule with Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and then the Missouri/Kansas winner in the Big 12 Championship. Penn State can't match that. From the Lions' perspective, nothing has changed -- the team in front of them now is Texas Tech instead of Texas, but the reality of the remaining schedules for Alabama and Tech compared to the Lions' slate means the status quo will not change. Penn State has to win out and hope for a loss among the top two:

The flipside of the Lions' schedule and status down the stretch is that they remain far more likely than Alabama or Texas Tech to run the table. And if you took a poll, even of the voters that ranked the Raiders ahead of Penn State, my guess is they'd come back with Tech losing to one of the Oklahoma teams -- more likely the Sooners in Norman -- which would throw the Big 12 South into total chaos but simply move the undefeated Lions up to face undefeated Alabama for the mythical championship. So while Alabama and Texas Tech are the only teams that "control their destiny," Penn State should still feel very confident about the chances of one of those teams losing.

A little help? Florida, Texas and Oklahoma are waiting with bated breath for a Tech or Bama stumble, too, and the Gators and Sooners are in position to help their own causes in that regard:

USC, for all intents and purposes, is only included because it's USC and is certainly playing well enough on the field to belong in the discussion. In reality, though, the Trojans' schedule virtually eliminates them from any serious consideration unless everybody in front of them loses. Late-falling dominoes of the last two years notwithstanding, that's not going to happen.

Florida has the simplest path to the top two: barring an unexpected stumble by the Gators against South Carolina or Florida State, a Red Raider loss sets up a blockbuster Florida-Alabama SEC Championship as a virtual play-in game for the mythical championship game. I think this is true even if LSU upsets 'Bama Saturday in Baton Rouge. I don't think there's any question of any one-loss team leaping Penn State. So the way the rest of the schedule shakes out, if the Lions run the table and the second position comes down to a one-loss SEC champion against a one-loss Big 12 champion, my money is on the SEC champion getting the nod -- beating Alabama/Florida is going to carry more weight than the Big 12 South champ beating the Missouri/Kansas winner.

For chaos' sake. The Big 12 South is chaotic enough, but Texas Tech is still integral to the shortest path to system overload: three major undefeated teams at the top -- which would almost certainly wind up excluding Penn State, again -- would lead to wholesale gnashing of teeth on the level of the 2003 and 2004 debacles and a whole spate of calls for reform. The Penn State vs. one-loss USC/SEC/Big 12 champion logjam described above pales in comparison to an undefeated team getting left out in the cold.

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  1. mangere_bridge
    1. Posted by mangere_bridge Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:12 pm EDT

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    For what it's worth, the smallest gap between the second- and third-placed teams in the BCS standings (since the introduction of the 2/3 human-1/3 robot formula) happened on 10/22/2006:
    1. Ohio State 0.9764
    2. Michigan 0.9451
    3. USC 0.9430
    4. West Virginia 0.7551
  2. Harry P
    2. Posted by Harry P Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:28 pm EDT

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    it is once again so silly that the only sport in the NCAA without a championship tournament is the one with the most interest divion 1 or whatever its called now. I say this not just because I am a PSU fan but a fan of college football period. Please do not tell me it would take the student -athlete away from school and add to travel etc., it would make a great sport even better. For crying out loud even fencing has a tournament and how many people even knew fencing was an NCAA sport? There are too many teams this nyeart with a legitimate claim to have a subjective champion rather than a true champ.
  3. _
    3. Posted by _ Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:33 pm EDT

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    you're right, overrated SEC teams shouldn't even be allowed in this "tournament".
  4. JosephineTX
    4. Posted by JosephineTX Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:21 pm EDT

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    Having thought about it anew this season, my take on the BCS is this--the whole season is the playoffs. The fact that a single loss can often eliminate a team from championship contention means that every game is a big game. They have us on the edges of our seats every single week. And what more could they want? This system probably leads to more fans watching games on tv on a weekly basis (so more advertising money), and there are more games at the end of the season that fans pay to go to. It's all about the money. As long as we keep paying for it, they'll keep giving it to us. Fans don't like the system, but unless we're about to boycott college football, it's not going to change.
  5. Ummmm
    5. Posted by Ummmm Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:34 pm EDT

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    Maybe the voter thinks Texas is better because they played Tech at Tech after playing 3 highly ranked teams, and still barely lost. I would agree. To me it looked like a USC vs. Oregon State type game - Tech/Oregon State won, but they're probably not the better teams.
    If Tech goes on to beat Oklahoma and Oklahoma State like Texas did, then obviously that is a different story.
  6. Amos
    6. Posted by Amos Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:46 pm EDT

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    I'm a Florida fan and am not sure I'd put any money on a one loss SEC champ beating out a one loss Big 12 champ. While I agree that winning the seccg means more than beating kansas/mizzou, I think that a lot of voters will consider winning the Big 12 south to be a really big deal since whoever comes out of it would have to have gone through a pretty tough schedule.
  7. Troy
    7. Posted by Troy Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:12 pm EDT

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    Actually Florida is 4 and Oklahoma is 5 in the Harris poll. At least that's what it says on Fox's BCS site.
  8. Troy
    8. Posted by Troy Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:12 pm EDT

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    Also Texas is 6 and USC is 7 in the Harris poll. Or is Fox lying to me?
  9. Lil Bill
    9. Posted by Lil Bill Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:39 pm EDT

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    If the computer is so smart, why does your chart show Oklahoma ranked #11 out of ten teams and no team ranked #6?
  10. SpartanDan
    10. Posted by SpartanDan Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:11 pm EDT

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    Lil Bill: That would be because of a typo on ESPN's site: Oklahoma is listed at #9 there, but they are really #6. Georgia is #9, but the human polls knocked them out of the BCS top 10.
  11. Jon P
    11. Posted by Jon P Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:40 pm EDT

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    USC is ranked 5th in the BCS last week, and now 7th in the BCS after beating Washington 56 -0. Is it USC's fault that Washington is now winless and they played them this week instead of win Oklahoma played them (55-14) when they were only 0-3.
    Can we PLEASE just do a playoff already? Who wouldn't want to see the top 8 teams squaring off?
    Right now Round 1 would be:
    Alabama vs. Utah
    Texas Tech vs. USC
    Penn St. vs. Oklahoma
    Texas vs. Florida
  12. Carl V
    12. Posted by Carl V Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:03 pm EDT

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    @Lil Bill:
    They show Oklahoma STATE eleventh out of TWENTY FIVE, and the lack of a number six is ESPN being retarded. Oklahoma's #9 should be a number 6. Georgia is the computer number 9.
  13. The Heffalump
    13. Posted by The Heffalump Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:05 pm EDT

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    The reason that the only sport in college athletics has the most interest is that it has no playoff. Every game matters. There is rarely redemption. College fans need to understand - if we have a playoff, coaches rest players when the seeds are set, they look ahead to other games. The difference between college football and every other sport is that college football has no playoff. That we all love college football more than every other sport is no accident. It is because every game matters. It is because the NCAA has never had to award a championship to a 14-6 team over an 18-1 team like the NFL did last year. No one says "They won when it mattered" in college ball. It always matters. I've been a troller on the blogosphere for a while - I've seen the shift in attitude from "let the game be" to "we need a championship" and I think the shift endangers the game we love.
  14. SpartanDan
    14. Posted by SpartanDan Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:11 pm EDT

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    Heffalump: The biggest problem is that college football tries to have it both ways. If they want the championship to be totally mythical, that's fine with me - but don't pretend you can consistently pick the two best teams at the end of the regular season to play for a title. If you're going to declare a champion at all, a playoff of at least six teams is absolutely necessary. (Personally, I like doing either 6 or 12 rather than 8; this allows the regular season to matter more by giving the top 2 or 4 teams byes. OSU-Michigan 2006 might not be the difference between being in and getting left out anymore, but it could be the difference between a bye and starting with back-to-back road games. That's still pretty significant, and games like Missouri-Oklahoma become elimination games for both teams rather than spoiler games.)
  15. PhilipL
    15. Posted by PhilipL Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:00 pm EDT

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    it all would be so much nicer and simpler if only penn state did the country a favor and lost a game. as much as i like jopa, seeing them play has made me realize that they are not in the same league as the top sec or big 12 team, hell, they couldn't even beat a usc team that is currently out of the running unless all the teams above win.
    yeah penn fans, go ahead and mention the brain fart that usc had in their one loss and how your team was able to beat them... it doesn't matter. you are outclassed and you would not be taken lightly. when a team wants to make a statement, they do. look at florida-georgia, or usc-ohio state. Those were statements and whoever plays against Penn State will be looking to do the same.
  16. fingerssfv
    16. Posted by fingerssfv Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:00 pm EDT

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    Is there any team on the East coast that really thinks they can beat USC? Then why is it that USC is down so low in the polls. I know USC would spank Alabama, Penn State, Texas Tech, Texas, Oklahoma, LSU and any other team over there, with the exception of Florida, which is the team I prefer to watch play USC in the BCS Championship game. No one else would do. Florida VS USC!!! If you wish to argue the point, tell me the last time USC lost to anyone over there. How long ago was that? Ever year, we go to the east coast and whip a 'favorite to win out' the first game SC plays each year. Tell me that isn't true. It is fact!!! I still say Florida vs USC.
    By the way, I hoped to see Penn State do it this year, and they haven't let me down, either.
  17. crippler
    17. Posted by crippler Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:08 pm EDT

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    As much as they need a playoff, just add one more game to the bowl championships having the winner of each of the games between #1 and #2 and #3 and #4 face each other for the championship. If there is a logjam at the top it is the only fair way to determine it. If the schools complain about money, have the top 4 teams split the money between the 3 games with the top winner getting a little more.
  18. ThankYouForLeavingIverson
    18. Posted by ThankYouForLeavingIverson Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:35 pm EDT

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    Haha. Who did Texas Tech play? Eastern Washington? Nevada? Southern Methodist? Massachussetts? Kansas State? Nebraska? Texas A&M? Hahaha. Not one of those teams have (1) quality win.
    Texas has no defense nor does Texas Tech - Heres to (2) losses headed there way. Also, ANY team with a great offense could beat Texas.
    Big 12 awsome? Haha. Take a look at Texas - All four of their previous games they have given up an average of 32.2 points per game - just more proof that while yes the Big 12 may be exciting there are no solid teams in that division.
  19. mike lap
    19. Posted by mike lap Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:18 pm EDT

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    I m so tired of penn state getting screwed,and what is it about the big 12,none of those teams even have a defense,yeah they can score some points but how are you gonna score points,when you have to play a team that actually has a defense.penn state should be 2nd,they have a great offense and a great defense,you cant say that about any other team in the top 5,and what does everyone see in alabama,they dont impress me at all.the great sec and the great big 12 dont play much defense,and you can ask any great coaches they will tell you ,defense wins championships!psu has it all!
  20. Geer
    20. Posted by Geer Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:28 pm EDT

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    One quick correction: Alabama's second BYE comes before Auburn (Nov. 22), and not Miss. State (Nov. 15).
  21. SpartanDan
    21. Posted by SpartanDan Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:11 pm EDT

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    "Also, ANY team with a great offense could beat Texas."
    Missouri didn't. Oklahoma didn't. Oklahoma State didn't.
  22. KnowItAll
    22. Posted by KnowItAll Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:07 pm EDT

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    The fact that Penn State cannot move up in the rankings is bogus... congrats to Tech, but 7 to 2, it's a little much
  23. KnowItAll
    23. Posted by KnowItAll Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:07 pm EDT

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    Texas and Florida will win out... unless one of them loses in the conference title game, there is your National Championship game, which will be won by Florida, propelling Tim Tebow into the NFL as a tight end, not a quarterback..
  24. Billy
    24. Posted by Billy Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:12 pm EDT

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    Does anybody not feel like Alabama is overrated? I have not had a chance to see them play since i do not have cable do not live in the same television market to view them, but their only marquee victory was over an overrated Georgia team. I am not a Texas Tech fan but they have a win over the no. 1 team who has won against a former no. 1 and a one loss big 12 team and at the time another one loss team in mizzou. how could the computers not make tech no. 1? it's not like Alabama's schedule is that much tougher so far than TT.
  25. Jarrekk
    25. Posted by Jarrekk Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:28 pm EDT

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    USC is a good team..so is Texas..and PSU..and Tex Tech and Fla. and Oklahoma...so whats' the diff.? Alabama, Texas Tech, and PSU are UNDEFEATED! If fans of the other teams think they are the best then how do you explain the losses? All these teams can lay claim to SOS but in the end what matters is who lost and who didn't. We have 3 and 4 games left on the schedule..wait til its over before you pass judgement. I think Tex Tech did a GREAT job with their win over Texas..Alabama did what they were expected to do..WIN..PSU was idle...the other teams had really good wins as well but there's still that 1 in their loss column...keep talking smack..

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