Dr. Saturday - NCAAF

In a perfect world, the Doc would be given carte blanche to publicly torch the Bowl Championship Series in effigy and institute the elaborate, double-elimination battle royale of his dreams. But we live in the world we live in, so each Sunday the Doc looks at what the new BCS numbers mean for the rest of the season. Rooting interest: chaos. Always chaos.

Penn State's fall supposedly brings the picture into focus, but it really changes nothing as far as the championship game goes. The ball is still in the court of Alabama and Texas Tech, just as it's been the last two weeks, and the Tide and Raiders are Miami-bound if they win out. The only difference with the Lions' exit from the championship picture is that there's no major undefeated team left to cry foul when it's snubbed. Iowa's upset was crazy and all, but it only makes the situation slightly less chaotic.

Keep a couple things in mind with this week's numbers: a) The computers really love Utah, which probably doesn't matter as far as the championship is concerned, and really hate the Trojans, which definitely does matter. And b) The Coaches' poll still isn't docking Oklahoma for the Sooners' loss to Texas; OU comes in one spot ahead of the Longhorns, and only one spot behind Texas in the Harris Poll, which should have major implications on the eventual title game.

Sitting pretty. It seems clear now the SEC and Big 12 are on a collision course for the championship, via their own conference championships. Florida and Alabama are already locked into the SEC title game in Atlanta, with a mythical championship bid explicitly on the table if both take care of business for the rest of the regular season. That situation is easy.

The realm of chaos is the Big 12 South, if Texas Tech happens to lose to Oklahoma in two weeks. If the Raiders win, again, they're in. If they happen to lose to the Sooners, though, then ... bring on the tiebreaker procedures!

1. The records of the three teams will be compared against each other.

All three would be 1-1 against the other two. Next.

2. The records of the three teams will be compared within their division.

All three would be 4-1 within the division. Next.

3. The records of the three teams will be compared against the next highest placed teams in their division in order of finish (4, 5 and 6).

All three would be 3-0 against teams 4, 5 and 6 in the division. Next.

4. The records of the three teams will be compared against all common conference opponents.

All three would be undefeated against common conference opponents. Next.

5. The highest ranked team in the first Bowl Championship Series Poll following the completion of Big 12 regular season conference play shall be the representative.

Since the votes in this scenario would be tallied the day after Oklahoma finished off back-to-back wins over Oklahoma State and Texas Tech, the Sooners would have all the momentum. The question is whether that would be enough to push OU past the "incumbent," Texas, which has to hope to beat Kansas and Texas A&M badly enough to maintain its lead in the computer polls. But since the human polls are already waffling between Oklahoma and Texas despite the Longhorns' win in the Cotton Bowl, it seems the Sooners have the upper hand if they win out. As it stands, I'd peg the championship game as a collision of the winners of Alabama-Florida and Oklahoma-Texas Tech.

A little help? If that's the case, Texas is going to have a virtually impossible time coming out of that tiebreaker as the South "champion": The Longhorns need Texas Tech to lose, obviously, but even if Oklahoma was to beat the Raiders and then lose to Oklahoma State, Tech would still hold the tiebreaker advantage over Texas. With the poll situation favoring the Sooners, the 'Horns really only have one realistic hope, which is a victory by Missouri (or whomever wins the North Division) in the Big 12 Championship. In that case, UT could fall back to No. 2 as an at-large and face the SEC champion for the title.

The question in that scenario is whether voters would find sudden sympathy for USC as a conference champion over an at-large team. Barring a series of upsets too incredible to consider, this is really the Trojans' only hope ... except they're on pace to be relegated to at-large status, as well, as long as Oregon State keeps winning. The computers don't like USC (it's four spots behind Utah, which has a tougher remaining schedule with BYU on tap), and I still think the Trojans have to pray for those upsets. No even remotely likely scenario gets them to No. 2.

For chaos' sake. If Oklahoma beats Texas Tech, the Big 12 South is chaotic enough; among the Sooners, Raiders and Longhorns, at least one and possibly two of them will be left out of the picture with one loss, and there won't be any good way to distinguish between them. USC will have a legitimate gripe, but with its schedule, the high profile, "Is this not America?" snub is going to come from among the Dust Bowl trifecta. I get the feeling the Lonestar State is going to become very well acquainted with algorithms over the next three weeks.

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  1. CuseFanInSoCal
    1. Posted by CuseFanInSoCal Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:48 pm EDT

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    Utah's remaining schedule is San Diego State -- a team very much in the running for the title as the worst FBS team in the country -- and BYU, which is a borderline top 25 team. USC's remaining schedule is two lower midrange Pac-10 teams (Stanford and UCLA) and a Notre Dame team that seems to be about the same quality. I'm not sure whether three meh games are tougher than one sort-of-decent game and one cakewalk.
  2. marcillac
    2. Posted by marcillac Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:06 pm EDT

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    On an entirely irrelevant subject, it does seem somewhat outrageous that Tech. Texas, and OU won't all go to BCS Bowls even if they all end up with 1 loss. It would be truly offensive if Utah or Boise state were to get in ahead of any of these teams. A particularly appaling example of "spreading the wealth around" brought to you by none other than Republican Senators from geographically large but demographically puny western states including, you know, Utah.
    Yes, Boise's vcitory over OU was cute and all but this is precisely the sort of thing that has contributed to the degradation of the other "major" bowls.
    Of course, Texas and Oklahoma have Republican Senators too, but this senatorial curtesey thing seems to have gotten the better of them.
  3. gary
    3. Posted by gary Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:09 pm EDT

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    What a crock. Ok State lost to a #2 team and drops out of sight. USC loses to an un ranked team and has not played another top 10 team since, and still is #5? Would the big 12 be further ahead to schedule all high school teams and beat the hell out of them! Would that give them more exposure? Disgusted in big 12 country
  4. CuseFanInSoCal
    4. Posted by CuseFanInSoCal Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:48 pm EDT

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    Just following up, by the Sagarin Predictor, Utah's playing #27 BYU and #140 SDSU, for an average rank of 83.5. USC is playing #53 Notre Dame, #57 Stanford, and #93 UCLA, for an average 67.67. Granted, Utah's game against BYU is the only one on either schedule that seems even remotely loseable, but ND, Stanford, and UCLA's slim chance of beating USC is a lot better than SDSU's approximately zero chance of beating Utah.
  5. Weltall
    5. Posted by Weltall Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:08 pm EDT

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    If Florida wins out, and either texas tech or ou win out, it is conceivable (although unlikely) that Texas would remain ahead of Florida in the bcs. That would mean (I think) an all Big 12 national title game, and a lot of very angry Florida fans (and TV execs)....but could further the playoff cause.
  6. Tao of Baseball
    6. Posted by Tao of Baseball Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:55 pm EDT

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    If Florida wins out, that means they beat Number 1 Alabama in the SEC Championship. That would put Florida ahead of Texas in the computers and the humans. We will not see an all Big 12 BCS Chamionship game. Last year Georgia was number 4 when 2 and 3 lost. But Georgia was idle and did not play in the SEC championship and they did not rise to number 2 or it would have been an all SEC championship. Texas will not play in the Big 12 championship unless tech loses.
  7. Ute in DC
    7. Posted by Ute in DC Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:34 pm EDT

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    If Boise State or Utah go to a BCS bowl don't blame them for the mess. It will be much more tragic that a Big East and ACC champion will go that will not even be in the top 15 of the BCS rankings.
  8. SpartanDan
    8. Posted by SpartanDan Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:11 pm EDT

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    Anotherpath: I doubt it. The pollsters will vote with that possibility in mind and won't allow it.
    Gary: I agree USC is overrated, but OkSt didn't just lose, they got destroyed. And it's not their first loss. I think I'd have OkSt around 10 or 11 at best.
    Marcillac: Blame the "two per conference" rule, which predates expansion and the non-BCS automatic bid. It's not as though Utah has played Hawaii's schedule from last year (they beat the team that beat USC, for crying out loud). If Utah wins out, they deserve a BCS bid. (In fact, as I see it, every unbeaten deserves a shot at the championship - no one has proven themselves better yet - but with only two championship slots available, top BCS-conference teams are more deserving even if they lose one.)
  9. D.
    9. Posted by D. Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:39 pm EDT

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    i agree with gary d. how is it that oklahoma state loses to #1 texas then drops all the to 8 then earlier in the season usc loses to oregon or state and seems to manage a # 6 or 5 ranking........if u look at usc last 4 games they have been strugleing with arizona and even cal....when ou beats t tech and oklahoma st ou will jump past everyone but still needs to win the big 12......i think it will be florida ou in the national championship game......florida looks to be strong against alabama......sorry texas fams u had it till u went to that prevent defence against tech..what were the coaches thinking.just play ur game don't change things...........oh by the way ou should have been scoreing in the 70's to 80 point margins just let it be heard that stoops wasn't trying to rub those scores in.............
  10. mangere_bridge
    10. Posted by mangere_bridge Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:12 pm EDT

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    For the few of us who care about justice, it'll be hard to accept Oklahoma inserted into the Big 12 Championship ahead of Texas, unless the Sooners beat Texas Tech by a couple of touchdowns. Otherwise, Texas Tech's win over Texas came at home, as will (if it happens) Oklahoma's win over Texas Tech. Texas's win over Oklahoma came on a neutral site. Given they're one second away from being undefeated, you can argue that if all games were on a neutral field, Texas would still be undefeated; you can't argue that for Oklahoma.
    Texas would, of course, get a lot more sympathy if their non-conference schedule wasn't a joke.
  11. mangere_bridge
    11. Posted by mangere_bridge Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:12 pm EDT

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    Also, I think USC being ranked above Oklahoma State is not entirely unjustifiable considering that the Cowboys gave up 56 points yesterday, while the Trojans have given up 58 points all season.
  12. Kev Oh
    12. Posted by Kev Oh Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:50 pm EDT

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    Did I miss something? or doesn't Oklahoma State have 2 losses? Why in the world are people upset that a one loss USC is ranked ahead of them?
    Like was said before, they didn't just lose, they got annihilated, 2 DAYS AGO. It does matter when you lose. They only dropped four places in the BCS. There must be accountability for a loss, doesn't matter if it's to the best team in the land or the worst.. you must drop in the polls barring 8 upsets ahead of you.
    What a rediculous argument.
    I hate USC as much as the next person but there is no argument here for Oklahoma St. Win out, and enjoy a nice 10ish rank at the end of the season.
  13. Kev Oh
    13. Posted by Kev Oh Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:50 pm EDT

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    Oh and USC paid the price for losing. Dropping from number 1 to number 9 after that loss.
    Let's look at who was ahead of them when this took place:
    OU
    Bama
    LSU
    Mizzou
    Texas
    PSU
    TTech
    BYU
    ...hmmmm. Now how many of those teams have lost since then, while USC keeps winning. LSU, Mizzou, BYU combine for 6 losses and fall behind USC, moving them up 3 spots to about.... 6th!. USC is not being rewarded for 'being USC' nor is it being punished by blowing out crap competition.. They just win, and hang around 6th. The computers hate them and USC won't get into the MNC, so there's some justice there.
  14. Kev Oh
    14. Posted by Kev Oh Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:50 pm EDT

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    Last point, I swear
    Ok St's loss to Texas only took them down 3 in the BCS. So their combined losses dropped them 7 spots compared to USC's one loss that dropped them 9. USC lost early and watches teams ahead of them collapse. OK ST loses late.... TWICE and is still in relatively nice position. Granted, they lost to #1 and #2 teams... so what do you want for playing these teams? A bump in rankings? Then WIN those games and watch the number next to your name get smaller.
  15. Stephen S
    15. Posted by Stephen S Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:38 pm EDT

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    # 7 , both North Carolina, Florida State and Wake Forest have legitimate shots at being top 15, i dont know how the big east looks.
  16. Jacob S
    16. Posted by Jacob S Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:05 pm EDT

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    It seems clear that the best teams right now are USC and Florida. They each have an actual defense!
  17. SpartanDan
    17. Posted by SpartanDan Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:11 pm EDT

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    Jacob: Hard to judge that when they play against teams with no offense at all. (Florida against Georgia might be the lone recent exception there, and with that being a rivalry revenge game it's hard to put too much stock into it.) Texas and TTU would certainly hang some points on both, though I'm not sure they'd win.
  18. Chris C
    18. Posted by Chris C Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:47 pm EDT

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    it's also worth noting that that team the usc lost to, is 6-3 and ranked in both the coaches and ap poll.
  19. TK Gonna Hurt Somebody
    19. Posted by TK Gonna Hurt Somebody Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:22 pm EDT

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    if pitt wins out, then they will easily be in the top 15. same goes for cincy. and for all the haters ... check out the anderson sports rankings ... acc is #2 and big east is #4. having top25 teams doesn't make you a great conference. sometimes it means the voters are terribly biased and don't know what they're doing. the two worst teams in the fbs are in the pac-10 and they've inflated the records of all their opponents. before you talk crap on the be and acc, look at the evidence.
  20. mangere_bridge
    20. Posted by mangere_bridge Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:12 pm EDT

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    RE Florida's defense: besides Georgia, the two other live offenses they've faced have been LSU and Ole Miss. They kept LSU to 21 points, the Tigers' equal lowest score of the year. Ole Miss, well, the Gators won't forget what happened in that game.
  21. mangere_bridge
    21. Posted by mangere_bridge Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:12 pm EDT

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    The ACC are actually pretty solid this year (NC State excepted), they just don't have an elite team to rally around.
    The Big East, ick. The only thing they have in their favor is they don't include any teams from the state of Washington.
  22. Your mom
    22. Posted by Your mom Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:44 pm EDT

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    since when does playing a team with terrible offense constitute your team as having a good defense. USC has and always will be overratted along with the entire SEC. LSU and bama had terrible offense across the entire game, with one qb throwing under 50%. That is terrible offense. And before you say that the Big 12 has terrible defense, look at the offenses that they have to try to stop, I coudl be mistaken, but they are all top 15 offenses. TTU, whom has always been regarded as having a brutal defense, held McCoy, a HEISMAN CANDIDATE to under 50 yds in a half. If you compare the toughness of schedule, the Big 12 teams have to face all top 25 teams, which to me would say is a tough schedule. #16 argued that USC lost to a "finally ranked" oregon state team, who has 3 LOSSES. thats not a good team to lose to. I happen to go to Tech, but frankly i dont care what big 12 team goes to the championship game as long as one of them does so that team can show the nation what the SEC's good defense looks like against an actual offense. CANT WAIT
  23. Your mom
    23. Posted by Your mom Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:44 pm EDT

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    another point, even though tech has faced OSU and Texas, two of the top 8 scoring offenses in the nation, they have still given up less points per game than LSU and scored almost double LSU's points per game. And i state again o-v-e-r-r-a-t-e-d
  24. mangere_bridge
    24. Posted by mangere_bridge Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:12 pm EDT

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    "TTU, whom has always been regarded as having a brutal defense, held McCoy, a HEISMAN CANDIDATE to under 50 yds in a half."
    While this statistic falls, technically, into the category of "not true", it is true that they held him to under 250 yards in the other half.
  25. Stone Wall
    25. Posted by Stone Wall Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:25 pm EDT

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    time and time again, USC is said to have a GREAT defense..... but they play in a weak conference!!!
    that being said, they still show up in whatever BCS game they are given and not only SMASH your conferences team in the mouth on offense, but blow the living DAYLIGHTS out of your guys' weak offenses.
    quit complaining! USC will once again topple over ANY TEAM they face this year in ANY BCS GAME they get to play in. and then you guys will all see again, even though you shoulda learned your lesson last year... and the year before that.... and the year before that.... in fact, since Caroll came, aside from the one game against the NC Texas Longhorns, USC ALWAYS shows up to play, and WIN. and it just comes to show how completely idiotic ya'll are talkin trash on this forum.
    that said, i hape texas tech smashes auburn in the NC game.

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