Sun Nov 09, 2008 8:34 pm EST
In a perfect world, the Doc would be given carte blanche to publicly torch the Bowl Championship Series in effigy and institute the elaborate, double-elimination battle royale of his dreams. But we live in the world we live in, so each Sunday the Doc looks at what the new BCS numbers mean for the rest of the season. Rooting interest: chaos. Always chaos.
Penn State's fall supposedly brings the picture into focus, but it really changes nothing as far as the championship game goes. The ball is still in the court of Alabama and Texas Tech, just as it's been the last two weeks, and the Tide and Raiders are Miami-bound if they win out. The only difference with the Lions' exit from the championship picture is that there's no major undefeated team left to cry foul when it's snubbed. Iowa's upset was crazy and all, but it only makes the situation slightly less chaotic.
Keep a couple things in mind with this week's numbers: a) The computers really love Utah, which probably doesn't matter as far as the championship is concerned, and really hate the Trojans, which definitely does matter. And b) The Coaches' poll still isn't docking Oklahoma for the Sooners' loss to Texas; OU comes in one spot ahead of the Longhorns, and only one spot behind Texas in the Harris Poll, which should have major implications on the eventual title game.
Sitting pretty. It seems clear now the SEC and Big 12 are on a collision course for the championship, via their own conference championships. Florida and Alabama are already locked into the SEC title game in Atlanta, with a mythical championship bid explicitly on the table if both take care of business for the rest of the regular season. That situation is easy.
The realm of chaos is the Big 12 South, if Texas Tech happens to lose to Oklahoma in two weeks. If the Raiders win, again, they're in. If they happen to lose to the Sooners, though, then ... bring on the tiebreaker procedures!
1. The records of the three teams will be compared against each other.
All three would be 1-1 against the other two. Next.
2. The records of the three teams will be compared within their division.
All three would be 4-1 within the division. Next.
3. The records of the three teams will be compared against the next highest placed teams in their division in order of finish (4, 5 and 6).
All three would be 3-0 against teams 4, 5 and 6 in the division. Next.
4. The records of the three teams will be compared against all common conference opponents.
All three would be undefeated against common conference opponents. Next.
5. The highest ranked team in the first Bowl Championship Series Poll following the completion of Big 12 regular season conference play shall be the representative.
Since the votes in this scenario would be tallied the day after Oklahoma finished off back-to-back wins over Oklahoma State and Texas Tech, the Sooners would have all the momentum. The question is whether that would be enough to push OU past the "incumbent," Texas, which has to hope to beat Kansas and Texas A&M badly enough to maintain its lead in the computer polls. But since the human polls are already waffling between Oklahoma and Texas despite the Longhorns' win in the Cotton Bowl, it seems the Sooners have the upper hand if they win out. As it stands, I'd peg the championship game as a collision of the winners of Alabama-Florida and Oklahoma-Texas Tech.
A little help? If that's the case, Texas is going to have a virtually impossible time coming out of that tiebreaker as the South "champion": The Longhorns need Texas Tech to lose, obviously, but even if Oklahoma was to beat the Raiders and then lose to Oklahoma State, Tech would still hold the tiebreaker advantage over Texas. With the poll situation favoring the Sooners, the 'Horns really only have one realistic hope, which is a victory by Missouri (or whomever wins the North Division) in the Big 12 Championship. In that case, UT could fall back to No. 2 as an at-large and face the SEC champion for the title.
The question in that scenario is whether voters would find sudden sympathy for USC as a conference champion over an at-large team. Barring a series of upsets too incredible to consider, this is really the Trojans' only hope ... except they're on pace to be relegated to at-large status, as well, as long as Oregon State keeps winning. The computers don't like USC (it's four spots behind Utah, which has a tougher remaining schedule with BYU on tap), and I still think the Trojans have to pray for those upsets. No even remotely likely scenario gets them to No. 2.
For chaos' sake. If Oklahoma beats Texas Tech, the Big 12 South is chaotic enough; among the Sooners, Raiders and Longhorns, at least one and possibly two of them will be left out of the picture with one loss, and there won't be any good way to distinguish between them. USC will have a legitimate gripe, but with its schedule, the high profile, "Is this not America?" snub is going to come from among the Dust Bowl trifecta. I get the feeling the Lonestar State is going to become very well acquainted with algorithms over the next three weeks.
Dr. Saturday is a college football blog edited by Matt Hinton. Email him tips and feedback.

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143 Comments
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Yes, Boise's vcitory over OU was cute and all but this is precisely the sort of thing that has contributed to the degradation of the other "major" bowls.
Of course, Texas and Oklahoma have Republican Senators too, but this senatorial curtesey thing seems to have gotten the better of them.
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Gary: I agree USC is overrated, but OkSt didn't just lose, they got destroyed. And it's not their first loss. I think I'd have OkSt around 10 or 11 at best.
Marcillac: Blame the "two per conference" rule, which predates expansion and the non-BCS automatic bid. It's not as though Utah has played Hawaii's schedule from last year (they beat the team that beat USC, for crying out loud). If Utah wins out, they deserve a BCS bid. (In fact, as I see it, every unbeaten deserves a shot at the championship - no one has proven themselves better yet - but with only two championship slots available, top BCS-conference teams are more deserving even if they lose one.)
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Texas would, of course, get a lot more sympathy if their non-conference schedule wasn't a joke.
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Like was said before, they didn't just lose, they got annihilated, 2 DAYS AGO. It does matter when you lose. They only dropped four places in the BCS. There must be accountability for a loss, doesn't matter if it's to the best team in the land or the worst.. you must drop in the polls barring 8 upsets ahead of you.
What a rediculous argument.
I hate USC as much as the next person but there is no argument here for Oklahoma St. Win out, and enjoy a nice 10ish rank at the end of the season.
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Let's look at who was ahead of them when this took place:
OU
Bama
LSU
Mizzou
Texas
PSU
TTech
BYU
...hmmmm. Now how many of those teams have lost since then, while USC keeps winning. LSU, Mizzou, BYU combine for 6 losses and fall behind USC, moving them up 3 spots to about.... 6th!. USC is not being rewarded for 'being USC' nor is it being punished by blowing out crap competition.. They just win, and hang around 6th. The computers hate them and USC won't get into the MNC, so there's some justice there.
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Ok St's loss to Texas only took them down 3 in the BCS. So their combined losses dropped them 7 spots compared to USC's one loss that dropped them 9. USC lost early and watches teams ahead of them collapse. OK ST loses late.... TWICE and is still in relatively nice position. Granted, they lost to #1 and #2 teams... so what do you want for playing these teams? A bump in rankings? Then WIN those games and watch the number next to your name get smaller.
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The Big East, ick. The only thing they have in their favor is they don't include any teams from the state of Washington.
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While this statistic falls, technically, into the category of "not true", it is true that they held him to under 250 yards in the other half.
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that being said, they still show up in whatever BCS game they are given and not only SMASH your conferences team in the mouth on offense, but blow the living DAYLIGHTS out of your guys' weak offenses.
quit complaining! USC will once again topple over ANY TEAM they face this year in ANY BCS GAME they get to play in. and then you guys will all see again, even though you shoulda learned your lesson last year... and the year before that.... and the year before that.... in fact, since Caroll came, aside from the one game against the NC Texas Longhorns, USC ALWAYS shows up to play, and WIN. and it just comes to show how completely idiotic ya'll are talkin trash on this forum.
that said, i hape texas tech smashes auburn in the NC game.
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