Dr. Saturday - NCAAF

In a perfect world, the Doc would be given carte blanche to publicly torch the Bowl Championship Series in effigy and institute the elaborate, double-elimination battle royale of his dreams. But we live in the world we live in, so each Sunday the Doc looks at what the new BCS numbers mean for the rest of the season. Rooting interest: chaos. Always chaos.

Seven teams go into the weekend undefeated, and seven teams come out unscathed for the second week in a row. And although there is some movement in this week's lineup -- Texas hops Alabama into the No. 2 spot across the board, Cincinnati leapfrogs TCU and Boise State to assume USC's vacant position at No. 5 -- the status quo remains numbingly consistent: If the "Big Three" at the top continue to win out, the BCS title game will inevitably feature Big 12 champ Texas vs. the winner of the SEC showdown between Florida and Alabama, or possibly LSU if the Tigers make their move by upsetting 'Bama this weekend and go on to take the SEC championship. The only drama as far as the top two positions are concerned is what happens if/when one of the "Big Three" goes down, opening up room for some chaos from the not-so-big contingent of upstarts lurking immediately behind them (see below).

But there's plenty of drama throughout the poll:

First principles. Although it's still a long way from affecting anything at the top of the standings, one of the great poll debates down the stretch (assuming both keep winning) is destined to be Oregon vs. Boise State, and the test it puts to voters re: Boise's convincing win over the Ducks to open the season: As the Ducks surge toward the Pac-10 title and the Broncos' schedule is increasingly bogged down by the likes of San Jose State, Louisiana Tech, Utah State and New Mexico State, will Oregon's vast improvement and vastly more difficult schedule since the opening night debacle be enough to lift it past Boise, a la Oklahoma's offensive dominance down the stretch and tougher non-conference schedule overcoming its head-to-head loss to Texas last year? Or will the scoreboard on Sept. 3 remain sacrosanct for the rest of the year?

The human polls don't seem to be asking themselves this question yet -- Boise remains three spots ahead of Oregon in the Coaches' poll and four spots ahead in the Harris, probably too wide a gap for the Ducks to make up if both keep winning. But the computers had no such qualms: As a group, they ranked Oregon ahead of Boise State, and five of the six computer polls this week (all except Richard Billingsley's) break for the Ducks, who should only pull further ahead as they get further into the Pac-10 slate.

As their affair progressed, the computers demanded Iowa bring them more than roses. The other interesting gap this week, like last week, is the divergent opinion between the humans and the computers about what to with Iowa. The Harris and Coaches' polls continue to turn up their noses at the Hawkeyes "ugly" wins, ranking them as the worst of the remaining unbeatens for the second week in a row; the computers continue to love the strength of schedule and couldn't care less about how the Ws keep coming. (Literally, they couldn't; it's against the rules.)

But even the machines, which almost unanimously voted Iowa No. 1 last week, have to back off this week as the strength of schedule was dilluted by Indiana and bad road losses by Michigan and Michigan State took some of the shine off the Hawkeyes' wins over the Wolverines and Spartans. The machines fall in line with feeble hu-mahn brains this week with a near-sweep for Florida; only Peter Wolfe's poll still submits Iowa as No. 1, and it's summarily tossed from the average as the Hawkeyes' high score.

Still, the computers are bullish enough to keep Iowa in place as the first contingency plan if any two of the 'Big Three' can't fulfill their duties up there. As long as it's still winning, you haven't heard the last from Iowa, even if you wish you had.

The Brat Pack. I'm in search of a catchall term for the persistent cluster of unbeaten teams ranked 4-8 -- Iowa, Cincinnati, TCU and Boise State -- that, whatever their specific order from week to week, no one seems to really consider worthy of national championship consideration, yet which all sit very poised to slide into one of those top two spots if the dominoes in front of them start falling. I've referred to Iowa before as coming along in the "Commissioner Valchek" role, as an unappealing team that's very well adapted to its surroundings and manages to survive long enough to rise to the top, even when no one thinks they belong there, but that reference may be a little too obscure to stick. More readily accessible suggestions along those lines are welcome.

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  1. Jacob
    1. Posted by Jacob Sun Nov 01, 2009 11:34 pm EST

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    Rooting interest: chaos. Always chaos. Love it.
  2. Jacob
    2. Posted by Jacob Sun Nov 01, 2009 11:45 pm EST

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    How about a virtual playoff system. Entrants would include each and every conference winner, with at-large bids for the BCS conference teams. No limit on how many teams qualify! Winners would be decided by those who make the Vegas odds. If the Vegas odds are less than 2.0 on a neutral field, an actual game would be played. Except the game is just the overtime format - alternating possessions on the 25 yd line! Eliminate, eliminate, down to two teams - there's your 1 vs 2 matchup!
    Of course, this format favors publicly valued teams, like Oklahoma, Texas, USC, Miami, and other teams which are often times favored more than they should be. And it also favors teams like Texas Tech. Due to their prolific offense, odds are often slanted in their favor.
    So other teams would mimic Texas Tech, and score more points during the regular season! More chaos!
  3. Jacob
    3. Posted by Jacob Sun Nov 01, 2009 11:45 pm EST

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    Personally, I think the elimination of margin of victory from the computer formulas is a complete mistake. A 60 point blowout is NOT the same as a 1 point squeaker. More to the point, I think logic should be added to the computer programs so that a computer understands a 9 point margin of victory is more than one score, and that a 3 point lead deficit with 30 seconds remaining requires a onsides kickoff, which is luck (basically), etc, etc, etc. All plays would be entered into the computer, which would then assign a true "margin of a$$-kicking". This margin would then be applied to the win, and teams would be credited with good games, and penalized for squeakers, as humans can do.
  4. mr_freak_on_a_leash
    4. Posted by mr_freak_on_a_leash Sun Nov 01, 2009 11:46 pm EST

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    A "The Wire" reference always deserves to stick.
  5. Tim
    5. Posted by Tim Sun Nov 01, 2009 11:53 pm EST

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    What do they call the guy in sports like soccer (or on-side kicks in football) that sits well behind the focus of the action to grab the ball if it happens to randomly slip through? Garbage collector? That'd be a good term for those teams just sitting around waiting for someone to fail.
  6. Jeremy
    6. Posted by Jeremy Mon Nov 02, 2009 12:19 am EST

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    Does a Rat Pack (TCU, Cincy, BSU, or Iowa) running the table really hurt the BCS outside of their respective home state? Ultimately if it was Southern Miss, BYU, Utah, and/or Marshall, we'd be having a much angrier conversation, get my drift?
    I'm a Texas fan. If those guys want to play for a championship, they need to play themselves into being accepted into a big-6 conference. REGULARLY. My grandpa was a tenured professor at TCU and I'll be the first to say that if you just lackadasaicly act like the crystal trophy belongs in your hands any year that you happen to go undefeated, you're fooling yourself.
    Put the best teams in the best conferences, however that may play out. Sorry Purdue, Vanderbilt, Baylor, Stanford, Clemson, and Rutgers. Really sorry, but our state gov'ts have been indirectly funding your "private" universities with TOTALLY PUBLIC funds for forever. to say nothing towards south bend.
    Kids who play hard for their state deserve to play for the MNC.
  7. enlightenedbum
    7. Posted by enlightenedbum Mon Nov 02, 2009 12:34 am EST

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    I've been saying Iowa is the unholy child of the 2002 Buckeyes.
  8. The World Famous Butt Pirate
    8. Posted by The World Famous Butt Pirate Mon Nov 02, 2009 12:47 am EST

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    Sorry, jeremyloomisnorris, but Purdue and Rutgers are TOTALLY PUBLIC. Also, Iowa and Cincy are already in "Big-6" conferences; though not the strongest football conferences, they are still in the Big 6.
  9. D
    9. Posted by D Mon Nov 02, 2009 12:49 am EST

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    None of this means anything until there is a playoff system. I hope to see Florida, Alabama, and Texas all lose. It would be hilarious to see the reaction in Congress if an undefeated Iowa, TCU, or Boise State are turned away from the mythical national championship game in favor of a one loss Florida versus one loss Texas. The BCS is worthless and has been worthless as far as crowning a national champ since the first mythical national championship game. The AP proved that point crowning USC as the national champs over LSU a few years ago and an undefeated Auburn watched from home as USC dismantled Oklahoma for its mythical crown. What's worse is that supposedly good teams consistently and intentionally go out of their way to not play good teams like USC during the regular season. Case in point, Florida scheduled Charlston Southern and Troy. Alabama, Texas, and LSU are likewise guilty, scheduling teams like Louisiana-Monroe, Wyoming, FIU, and North Texas.
  10. festdir
    10. Posted by festdir Mon Nov 02, 2009 12:55 am EST

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    jeremyloomisnorris -
    1) Iowa is in the Big 10 (the conference with the most total wins, biggest stadiums, most profitability, winningest collegiate program, 1/2 of the original teams to play in the biggest bowl of them all-the Rose), Cincy is in the Big East....both BCS 'Big 6' conferences
    2)Purdue, Clemson, and Rutgers are all Public Universities. Anyone-
    Who the hell is "Commissioner Valchek" and how does he compare to the 9-0, 13 game (2nd longest in the NCAA) winning streak Iowa Hawkeyes?
  11. James
    11. Posted by James Mon Nov 02, 2009 1:04 am EST

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    Why all this debate over Cincy and Boise St and a few of the other undefeated. I have no problem should they win out playing in the top spot. Hell, there never seems to be a problem with strength of schedule and what conference you are in if say, your uniform is Gold. You know what I mean, If there was anyway to have ND in the BCS finals regardless of who they play, they would be there. Clausen, Heisman? Give me a dman break!
    Why is Oklahoma still in the top 25? C'mon....3 losses.
  12. Devin McCullen
    12. Posted by Devin McCullen Mon Nov 02, 2009 1:23 am EST

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    Oh, come on, this is too easy - they're the practice squad. (Or maybe taxi sqaud if you want to get retro.)
  13. schwilling
    13. Posted by schwilling Mon Nov 02, 2009 1:50 am EST

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    #9 you are pathetic
  14. Devin
    14. Posted by Devin Mon Nov 02, 2009 1:54 am EST

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    Long time reader, don't think I've ever posted before. But I felt the need to comment for the first time, simply to say:
    I love the Valchek reference. Never fear about Wire references being to obscure. Know that Wire fans are always reading, and we always love them.
  15. A!
    15. Posted by A! Mon Nov 02, 2009 2:16 am EST

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    #13 you are in denial
  16. DC
    16. Posted by DC Mon Nov 02, 2009 2:53 am EST

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    Oregon finishes 11-1 and Boise St finishes 13-0. Schedule or not, that 1 "L" in Oregon's column was a pretty convincing win by Boise St. At the end of the season, Boise State beat the Pac-10 Champion. I don't see why voters should put Boise St behind Oregon.
    To compare this situation to Oklahoma/Texas is apples and oranges. Texas, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech all had 1 loss in conference. Texas did beat Oklahoma but lost to Texas Tech who got smashed by Oklahoma. The key is that Oklahoma had the most impressive win out of that trio (I say this as a Texas fan).
    Straight up, Oregon lost to Boise St. A loss is a loss. What it may come down to for that final BCS spot is 13-0 Boise St, 11-1 Penn St (Or 11-1 Iowa if OSU wins out and wins the Big Ten), and 10-2 USC....if Oregon is in the BCS then so should Boise St if they're unbeaten.
  17. Timothy
    17. Posted by Timothy Mon Nov 02, 2009 3:22 am EST

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    #9.D, I agree with you. Add Utah08 to the list of undefeated teams left out of the conversation after they demolished bama. #13.schwilling, please explain a lil more than just "ur pathetic." Or is that all you have to say which further proves the point that ur in denial. Pre-season rankings dont mean anything, look at how many teams they got wrong. none of this means anything until there's a playoff.
  18. A!
    18. Posted by A! Mon Nov 02, 2009 3:37 am EST

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    I hate the BcS system as much as the Doc, but here's an analysis:
    Doc, you say "The other interesting gap this week, like last week, is the divergent opinion between the humans and the computers about what to [do] with Iowa."
    However, that is not even the largest discrepancy. While Iowa's ranking in the Human Polls is .18 pts lower than in the computer component, Wisconsin is ranked .21 pts lower and Cal is ranked .27 pts lower.
    On the flip side, there are a couple of teams that appear to be "pets" of the human polls. Ohio St is ranked .33 pts higher in the human polls than in the computers and Oklahoma is .22 pts higher with the humans. Huston is a distant third with.10 and Okla St is at .09.
    Why do I bring this up? Well if Penn St, Miami, Oklahoma or Oklahoma St finish in the top 14 of the BCS standings, they will take an "at-large" spot away from Boise St/TCU.
    BcS berth distribution figures to be look like this:
    Conf Champs
    1 SEC
    1 Pac10
    1 ACC
    1 Big East
    1 Big 10
    1 Big 12
    1 TCU/Boise St
    1 Notre Dame (if they win out)
    At-large (in order of highest probability; Two or three spots will be available, depending on N D)
    -SEC (Bama, Florida or LSU)
    - Pac 10 (USC)
    - Big 10 (Penn St/ Ohio St winner)
    - ACC (Miami)
    - Big 12 ( Okla/Ok St winner)
    - Big East (Pitt- if beats ND, West Va)
    - TCU/Boise/Utah/Houston (if Utah wins out, they can replace TCU in the mix)
  19. A!
    19. Posted by A! Mon Nov 02, 2009 4:10 am EST

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    Ultimate CHAOS scenario:
    SEC: 'Bama loses (to Auburn or LSU) or South Carolina beats Florida; one loss team wins SEC title game
    Big 12: Texas loses
    Big 10: Ohio St, Iowa and Penn St each lose once
    Big East: Cinci and West Va lose once; Pitt loses twice
    Pac 10: Oregon, Cal, USC win out; Stanford beats Notre Dame
    ACC: Ga Tech cruises to Orange Bowl; Miami loses to South Fla
    Boise wins out; Utah &, TCU finish 11-1; Houston goes 12-1
    In the final BcS standings top 14:
    3 SEC
    3 Pac 10
    1 ACC
    1 Big East
    1 Big 12
    1 Big 10
    4 non BCS
    Only unbeaten is Boise St (Automatic Qualifier); the current rules would REQUIRE an "at-large' selection to be issued to TCU/Utah or Houston
    DEATH TO THE BCS... we need a playoff
    One can dream, right?
  20. Whisky
    20. Posted by Whisky Mon Nov 02, 2009 5:44 am EST

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    The sad part about Texas being so high is that this whole season was basically given to them, partly by whimpy scheduling and partly by fate. Let's look at the out of conference schedule first:
    Louisiana Monroe, Wyoming, UTEP, UCF = Guaranteed 4-0 against hopelessly outclassed athletes compared to UT's pick of the litter from their home state.
    Next, let's look at how kind the football gods have been to UT this year:
    Major Big 12 South injuries this year of offensive players who missed one game or more:
    Sam Bradford, Jermaine Gresham, Demarco Murray, Ryan Broyles, Dez Bryant, Kendall Hunter, Robert Griffin, Jeff Fuller.
    That is a who's who of future NFL players.
    What serious injury has Texas had to deal with?
    I'm not saying UT doesn't deserve to go undefeated and win the Big 12, but everyone who doesn't pay attention to the Big 12 very much should take note on just how fortunate Texas has been this year with multiple offensive stars falling all around them.
    Enjoy it now, because the odds are that this won't happen again.
  21. Big AL Mignery
    21. Posted by Big AL Mignery Mon Nov 02, 2009 7:34 am EST

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    #19: You forget....we had that "chaos" scenario happen in 2007. LSU won the NC with 2 losses! They didn't deserve to play for the NC, they just got lucky b/c everybody else lost! West Va losing to Pitt, LSU lost to Arkansas, USC lost to Stanford, and Hawaii went undefeated. Mizzou beat Kansas, then lost to Okla. It CAN happen...don't think it is just a dream!
  22. Trae
    22. Posted by Trae Mon Nov 02, 2009 10:40 am EST

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    Would that make USC Jimmy Mcnulty ?
  23. elitist jerk
    23. Posted by elitist jerk Mon Nov 02, 2009 10:59 am EST

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    Boise St. is Omar Little.
  24. SteinROIDER
    24. Posted by SteinROIDER Mon Nov 02, 2009 1:03 pm EST

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    The ducks will finish higher than BSU if both teams win out, just for the strength of schedule.
    BSU is in a nobody conference and the ducks will fly past............
  25. Chris H
    25. Posted by Chris H Mon Nov 02, 2009 1:47 pm EST

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    here is a question for all you college football gurus if iowa somehow beats ohio state i want to know when if ever was the last time a team beat penn state ohio state and michigan in the same year

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