Dr. Saturday - NCAAF

The most interesting aspect of the Heisman Trophy is always the players it excludes as a matter of course. With the field of favorites rapidly narrowing down the stretch, Alternate Heisman Reality looks at some of the more deserving candidates off the beaten path. Today: Georgia Tech quarterback Josh Nesbitt.

Generic Profile. Junior quarterback for a one-loss, top-10 team possibly headed for a conference championship and automatic BCS bid, and trigger man of the highest-gaining and highest-scoring offense in the ACC.

By the Numbers. Time for the blind taste test -- who you got?

"Quarterback A," as you might have guessed, is media darling and omnipresent Heisman frontrunner Tim Tebow, who has the benefit of being more accurate than "Quarterback B," Nesbitt, but can't hope to match Nesbitt's penchant for big plays. In fact, no quarterback can: In Georgia Tech's overwhelmingly run-based attack -- also expertly navigated by Nesbitt on his way to a likely 1,000-yard season on the ground -- defenses are so stunned when he actually steps back to throw that almost every completion ends as a big play. More than three-fourths of Nesbitt's completions (45 of 58) have gone for first downs, slightly over half have covered at least 15 yards and almost a third have gained at least 25 yards, with a handful of 60-plus-yard bombs in that number. When Mississippi State overplayed the option in early October, Nesbitt burned the Bulldogs for 266 yards and touchdown on 11-of-14 passing.

The problem for a quarterback working in such a run-based offense is that the passing stats don't follow -- Nesbitt doesn't have enough attempts to qualify for most stat categories. But if he did, he'd easily lead the nation in yards per attempt and yards per completion and rank in the top 10 in pass efficiency, on top of being the No. 5 rusher among quarterbacks.

Intangibles Ho! The quarterback does yeoman's work in the triple option, essentially doubling as a fullback by slogging out four yards per carry and consistently converting short-yardage situations while drawing hits that serve as "blocks" on many of his option pitches when plays go outside. Because this system relies so heavily on post-snap reads, Nesbitt makes the critical split-second decision that determines the success or failure of almost every play, even in the running game, and it's not for nothing that the Jackets scored at least 24 points in every ACC game and finished as far and away the most prolific overall attack in the league.

Note, too, that Nesbitt led two long field goal drives in the fourth quarter to bring the Jackets from behind to beat eventual Atlantic Division champ Clemson, and slammed the door on Virginia Tech by immediately answering two Hokie touchdown drives in the second half, sealing up the Jackets' biggest win of the year with a 40-yard touchdown run with three minutes to play. At Florida State, he accounted for 271 total yards and four touchdowns and at one point stripped an FSU defender of a teammate's fumble to maintain possession, then ran in a crucial touchdown a few plays later in a 49-44 marathon of a win. If you want a "tough" quarterback, Nesbitt is at the top of that list.

Three Strikes. Nesbitt a) Doesn't play for a high profile program known for offensive superstars (Georgia Tech has never produced a Heisman winner); b) Doesn't put up big passing numbers; and c) Hasn't established a high individual profile.

Face it: For all his big plays downfield, the guy only completes 46 percent of his passes, and it would probably be worse if not for the sure-handed acrobatics of his lone reliable target, Demaryius Thomas. Nesbitt was 1-of-7 through the air with an interception in his team's biggest game of the year, against Virginia Tech (though that lone completion covered 51 yards), and combined to hit a dismal 9-of-29 in back-to-back Thursday night showcases against Clemson and Miami. Nesbitt runs his offense as well as any other quarterback in the country at the moment, but who wants to vote for one of the least accurate passers in the country?

Might Enter the Real Discussion If ... He goes 11-for-12 passing for 280 yards and four touchdowns while rushing for 150 yards in a nationally-televised, 56-7 rout over Georgia, then lights up Clemson in similar fashion to take the ACC Championship. It would help a lot if Texas also lost and a few talking heads started floating the Jackets as potential BCS championship busters. Unless Nesbitt is clearly the hottest player in the country, pulling the strings of the hottest team at the end of the year, his name won't come up.

But he's still at least as strong a candidate as Eric Crouch ever was.

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  1. Tim
    1. Posted by Tim Tue Nov 24, 2009 5:14 pm EST

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    This isn't quite an individual achievement, but my favorite is still the ball-grinding 11 minute drive to open the third quarter against Virginia. He was visibly exhausted at the end. You have to tip your hat to the man for deciding to stick with a completely new system on offense that will lessen his chances to get into the NFL.
  2. Doghouse Reilly
    2. Posted by Doghouse Reilly Tue Nov 24, 2009 6:06 pm EST

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    Actually, Nesbitt has four strikes: He's a black, option-based quarterback. No matter how many games you win or how many yards you rush for, black quarterbacks gotta throw for a lotta yards. Georgia Tech is a southern school in a major media market. It's Nesbitt's second year as a starter. Everyone is aware at how productive that offense is. But all credit goes to Paul Johnson (who deserves a lot of it), and none of it to his players.
    Now, you could say that about any college option quarterback of the last few decades, regardless of race. But hey, Eric Crouch! We'll give you a Heisman! Who cares that anyone who had ESPN could see that Antwaan Randel El could have run circles around you! You're white!
  3. Ryan O
    3. Posted by Ryan O Tue Nov 24, 2009 6:20 pm EST

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    It has nothing to do with Josh's race...and everything to do with sEcSPN.
    It isn't the 1950's anymore.
  4. rhys w
    4. Posted by rhys w Tue Nov 24, 2009 6:37 pm EST

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    yea but also nesbitt is doing this in the ACC, the red-headed stepchild of bcs conferences. the ACC sucks. also you cant match the type of leadership tebow brings to the table
  5. Chris L
    5. Posted by Chris L Tue Nov 24, 2009 6:52 pm EST

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    "yea but also nesbitt is doing this in the ACC, the red-headed stepchild of bcs conferences. the ACC sucks. also you cant match the type of leadership tebow brings to the table"
    Games vs. defenses ranked in the top 40 addresses this a bit -- four apiece. Additionally, Tech's Sagarin SOS ranking is 12, whereas Florida's is 54.
  6. Tim
    6. Posted by Tim Tue Nov 24, 2009 8:00 pm EST

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    Also, the only people who think Tebow is the frontrunner for the Heisman are media contrarians that like to beat up strawmen. His mechanics have regressed and the SEC has figured out how to slow him down. If he didn't win last year he certainly shouldn't win this year.
  7. A!
    7. Posted by A! Tue Nov 24, 2009 8:48 pm EST

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    Colt McCoy, Kellen Moore, Colin Kaepernick, Case Keenum, Ryan Mallett, Jonathan Crompton, Thaddeus Lewis, Dan LeFevour, Andy Dalton, Tony Pike & Zach Collaros (in 7 games)
    ...all of the aforementioned QBs have had a better statistical year than THE CHRISTIAN CHILD.
    Plug any of them in at starting QB for the Gators and the ppg shoots up by at least 14
    The current Florida ppg of 36.5 is misleading...
    the avg vs Troy, FIU and Charleston Southern is 60 (24 TD)
    the avg ppg vs formidable foes is 25.2 (21TD)
    'Bama will destroy the Gators... and I'm not even a fan of the Tide/Saban
  8. rhys w
    8. Posted by rhys w Tue Nov 24, 2009 9:16 pm EST

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    talk all you want about defense ranking and stuff like that. but who is going to finish this season undefeated and win the national championship. keep talking... did you ever think that maybe the stats were also watered down because acc defenses also have to play acc offenses. as soon as they play an SEC team with real defense they are screwed. so just keep talking about al your acc b.s. it shouldnt be too hard to ignore you when florida is holding up the president's trophy.
  9. JUMBO
    9. Posted by JUMBO Tue Nov 24, 2009 9:21 pm EST

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    i dont know all the stats, and I am a bit bias, but why isn't Jeramiah Masoli at least in the discussion for heisman? I know he wont win, but his numbers are extremely similar to Tebows. Just curious.
  10. glen
    10. Posted by glen Tue Nov 24, 2009 10:10 pm EST

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    georgia tech has already beaten two sec defenses, and put up more points than florida did on said defenses, and gets to add more against georgia
    they prove to be capable in shootout wins over florida state (no punts!), and grinding out the clock (unc, vt, uva), they're only loss was an early season slugfest against the U who had all summer to prepare
    the acc is 2-3 against the sec this year, you gonna shout about bama's win over vt? they were losing late in the fourth quarter to a team chock full of freshman and sophomores from the acc and got lucky on 2 turnovers
    they'll be 4-4 after saturday, so much for sec muscle
  11. Greg C
    11. Posted by Greg C Tue Nov 24, 2009 11:02 pm EST

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    Tebow wishes he could pad his stats against terrible acc defenses for the majority of the year but he has to play real college football teams who think its fun to beat up on each other. These statistics are a joke. There are statistics that are conveniently left out that would probably favor Tebow. The SEC is the cream of the crop when it comes to college football and Tebow has played them week in and week out and dominated. That makes for one hell of a season. I also would like it noted that I feel like Ingram should win the award not Tebow because I hate that [profane]. Go [profane]
  12. bobby
    12. Posted by bobby Wed Nov 25, 2009 12:37 am EST

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    if any player from the acc deserves the hiesman then it would be cj spiller one of if not the best all around player this year. nesbit can not pass the ball and a qb that can not or does not throw down field does not belong in the hiesman race.
  13. Maury
    13. Posted by Maury Wed Nov 25, 2009 1:19 am EST

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    Nesbit also needs some highlight reel plays they can show on ESPN all the time... Crouch had a couple runs where he shook defenders out of their shoes and made big plays. (The run against Mizzou, The reverse pass against a ranked OU for a touchdown, etc.)
  14. Mark
    14. Posted by Mark Wed Nov 25, 2009 3:55 am EST

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    Don't try to argue with sec fans, don't forget there first love is nascar! nascar, really?
  15. Seth
    15. Posted by Seth Wed Nov 25, 2009 8:12 am EST

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    The comparison looks pretty even to me so I'm not following where you are going with this article. Tebow won't win the Heisman. Gator fans are disappointed in the year Tebow has had. Jacket fans are thrilled with Nesbitt as they should be. This is the best year they've had in a few decades. See you in Pasadena Jackets. Oh wait, I forgot you play in the ACC.
  16. gtne91
    16. Posted by gtne91 Wed Nov 25, 2009 9:44 am EST

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    #15 - you are correct that Tebow wont win the Heisman, but HE IS IN THE DISCUSSION. Everyone with identical stats should be IN THE DISCUSSION also.
    As far as Nesbitt's accuracy, what is the completion percentage for bigger name QBs throwing bombs? Does anyone complete more than 50% of their deep passes?
    Against Miss St, who was giving him the underneath pass (by playing a 10-15 yard cushion) he was 11/14. MSU sold out to use 9 against the option and gave big cushions, that Nesbitt took advantage of by throwing quick passes and letting the receivers run with the ball. Most teams play tighter on the WRs and he throws deep balls into on them instead.
    Completion percentage doesnt matter. Nor does yards per completion. It is yards per ATTEMPT that is important, it combines the other two. And Nesbitt leads the nation by a huge margin in that category.
    In running terms, the comparison would be Barry Sanders. He was the "incompletion" King of running backs, regularly leading the NFL in plays for losses. And yet, when He wasnt held to -1 yard, he went big. Not trying to compare Nesbitt to Sanders in ability, just stylistically (and his passing vs Sanders' running, Nesbitts running style is the anti-Sanders).
  17. roger s
    17. Posted by roger s Wed Nov 25, 2009 9:55 am EST

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    @ A! - You can have your pick of the guys you listed to lead a team down the field in a big game and I'll take Tebow. I like my chances. It's about more than just stats my friend. Should he win the heisman though, probably not. And to say that if you were to plug one of your guys into the gator offense that the PPG would jump by 14 is just an asinine comment.
  18. Khaos
    18. Posted by Khaos Wed Nov 25, 2009 9:56 am EST

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    Look at the last 10 or so winners of the Heisman. Sorry to break it to you, but the winner will come from Texas, Florida, Alabama, or possibly Nebraska. It Aint coming from GTech, Houston, Boise, or any of these "small-time" teams.
  19. gtne91
    19. Posted by gtne91 Wed Nov 25, 2009 10:08 am EST

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    @18 - How does Ron Dane fit into your theory.
  20. Khaos
    20. Posted by Khaos Wed Nov 25, 2009 11:08 am EST

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    Besides the fact that he broke an incredible record set by the great Ricky Williams just a few years earlier, I would argue that he doesn't really. Wisconsin is pretty big time though, at least compared to the schools I named above.
  21. Stan the Man
    21. Posted by Stan the Man Wed Nov 25, 2009 12:19 pm EST

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    And GT isn't "Big-time?" Time to read up on college football history...
  22. jim m
    22. Posted by jim m Wed Nov 25, 2009 12:26 pm EST

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    it is mccoy this year... no doubt... ciao
  23. I-SIG
    23. Posted by I-SIG Wed Nov 25, 2009 12:27 pm EST

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    I'd argue Georgia Tech has as much or more football history as all but a couple of Little Ten teams, including Wisconsin.
  24. Khaos
    24. Posted by Khaos Wed Nov 25, 2009 1:29 pm EST

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    Sorry, no disrespect meant to GT... but as long as I've been following college football (let's say 15 years), they're just not one of the teams that the media loves and talks about like USC, ND, Texas, Bama, Florida, Ohio State, etc. And I aint reading $H1T!

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