Dr. Saturday - NCAAF

Round and round she goes, where the ball stops, nobody knows ...

This week's bet: Virginia Tech. If the wheel had a 'default' setting, it would be the Hokies, who are playing the same kind of ugly, forgettable ball they play every September en route to dominating the conference again. Saturday's game at Nebraska is a litmus test for the course of the season: back to contending for the top ten, or just hanging onto the fringes?

Let 'em Ride. Don't be fooled by the early loss to East Carolina or back-to-back 20-17 scores over Georgia Tech and North Carolina: Tech regularly starts slow, with at least one September loss now in four of the last five years since joining the ACC, all accompanied by a too-close-for-comfort win or two. The wins the last two weeks have come by the familiar defense/turnovers/special teams M.O. that keep coming out on top.

Once Tyrod Taylor settles in, this version of the Hokie offense will have a playmaking quarterback for the first time since Marcus Vick in 2005. Tech has won the last two years despite Sean Glennon most of the time, and the full-fledged switch to Taylor after the ECU debacle can only pay off in the long run. Once Taylor gets his feet under him, they'll carry him into all-ACC territory by November.

Bet the Field. As it stands after East Carolina's flop at N.C. State, the ECU loss is on Virginia Tech just not being very good, and you'd be letting Tech off light to describe the wins over Georgia Tech and UNC as "ugly." The Hokies were outgained in both and needed a couple fat turnover margins (+3 against the Jackets, +2 against the Tar Heels) to eke out a field goal margin. The difference right now between 1-3, where the only win is over Furman, and the 3-1 reality is razor thin.

The young-ish defense is nothing like its consistently killer predecessors yet, but the bigger problem is the same: the quarterbacks are struggling massively to get the ball downfield, and there are no apparent playmakers for them to get it to if they could. The off-and-on running game has been decidedly 'off.' Even the special teams let them down, on the decisive punt block against ECU. The Hokies haven't proven particularly good at anything yet except falling on fumbles, and the trip to Nebraska is an opportunity to be exposed in similar fashion to last year's de-boweling at LSU.

Payout. 6-to-1. Again, one of the better bets on the table based on past performance, which is about all there is to recommend Tech at this point aside from the schedule. With Georgia Tech and North Carolina vanquished, though, who on the remaining conference schedule would you give odds to take the Hokies down? Boston College? Florida State? Maryland? Miami? Duke? Virginia? Even if things go terribly Saturday in Lincoln, last year's team survived its disastrous letdown in Baton Rouge to win seven of eight ACC games in the regular season -- it was a few seconds and an onside kick against Boston College away from 8-0 -- and won the conference championship. Assuming the ongoing maturity of Taylor and the defense in general, I'm not sure there's anyone left to stop that from happening again.

- - -
Photo of Tyrod Taylor via US Presswire. Last week's bet:
North Carolina.

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7 Comments

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  1. Rob D
    1. Posted by Rob D Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:45 pm EDT

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    after watching the florida and texas a%26m games, miami appears to be the most complete team in the coastal division. obviously having already beaten unc and gt gives vtech a big early leg up, but if miami splits with unc and gt, i think they%26%2339%3bll beat the hokies. and both um and vt have the good fortune of not having to deal with clemson. though vt dodges another bullet by missing wake forest too. my money would be on miami in the coastal, but i still think clemson is the favorite in the conference.
  2. Alaska Hokie
    2. Posted by Alaska Hokie Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:36 pm EDT

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    I'm not quite sold on Miami yet, but I'm sure that the game against the Hurricanes is the toughest game remaining on Tech's schedule after the one this weekend is played. I do have to say that I did see a marked improvement in the second half of the North Carolina game over what Tech started with at the beginning of this season. The defense didn't have as many missed tackles, freshman running back Darren Evans was extremely impressive and Kenny Lewis didn't look that bad.
    Furthermore, thanks to the success of those two running backs, Taylor was able to swing out of the pocket from time to time, running if the path was open or passing if defenders came up to cover the run. Even without a downfield passing game, Tech's offense may be able to find success just combining a middling rushing game, poor intermediate/short passing game, and Tyrod's mobility.
  3. dethwing
    3. Posted by dethwing Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:42 pm EDT

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    Tech was not just an onside kick away from 8-0 ACC, but essentially an onside kick away from playing in the MNC. And that would have just been hillarious for them to get in ahead of an LSU team that absolutely spanked them in Baton Rouge.
  4. Barry Zuckerkorn
    4. Posted by Barry Zuckerkorn Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:39 pm EDT

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    The ACC as a whole will bounce back. Most BCS conferences go in cycles (with the exception of the SEC - They always have 3 to 4 Juggernauts). Look at the Big 12 four years ago, aside from Oklahoma and Texas they were really weak. Now they have six legitimate teams. The ACC on the other hand has fallen quite a bit over the past few seasons. Give it four years and who knows.
    It's interesting to think of how a Phil Rivers led NC State team would roll through this conference now though!
  5. gtne91
    5. Posted by gtne91 Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:43 pm EDT

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    dethwing,
    VT almost didnt need the other win to go to the MNC. The Hokies were #1 with the computer systems, if just the computers determined the MNC participants, it would have been a VT-LSU rematch.
    I think VT would have done better the 2nd time around. Then again, they always lose bowl games, so maybe not.
  6. janito
    6. Posted by janito Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:55 pm EDT

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    You'll know a lot more about Miami in 2 weeks after they play UNC and FSU at home. Win those 2, and they're 2-0 and get Wake and VT at home and have very winnable road trips to Duke, UVA, and NCST.
  7. VT Alum
    7. Posted by VT Alum Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:19 pm EDT

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    We're winning ugly, but we're winning. Going 5-1 in the first half with this disaster of an offense only gives me hope in the second half. And as "ugly" as we've played, we managed one of the biggest comebacks in school history against UNC. If Tyrod Taylor and Darren Evans find their groove in the second half, and if the wide receivers and tight ends stet up as legitimate downfield threats, and if the defense can just tighten up some of those big plays they're giving up, VT could easily have its third ACC championship. If that doesn't happen, we could easily finish the year 7-5. But for this being a rebuilding year, I'm very pleasantly surprised so far.

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