Predicting the offseason consensus.

There's no database for these things yet -- to the relief of the people who construct them, no doubt -- but a quick search reveals the following "Way-Too-Early Top 25" polls for 2009, in no particular order:

• Mark Schlabach (ESPN)
• Bruce Feldman (ESPN)
• Tony Barnhart (Atlanta Journal-Constitution)
• Rivals.com
• NationalChamps.net
• Pat Dooley (Gainesville Sun)
• Stewart Mandel (Sports Illustrated)
• Matt Hayes (The Sporting News)
• Dennis Dodd (CBS)
• Joe Person (The State)

OK, that's enough. All of those efforts claim to recognize the absurdity of a preseason poll in January -- there's enough evidence for the absurdity of preseason polls in August, after all -- but they have one other feature in common, one that will almost certainly survive the spring and summer barring some kind of calamity: Florida and Texas are at the top of every one. Usually in that order. You can find a rare exception or two, but barring the odd case of irrational love for Oklahoma State, the stage is set: Tebow and McCoy are back, with far more returning starters than Oklahoma or USC, and the Gators and 'Horns will open up as overwhelming favorites.

Mandel goes so far to bite on a reader's suggestion that Florida and Texas are on a "collision course" for the mythical championship game, and it's hard to argue otherwise on paper -- with nine returning starters on offense and the entire two-deep coming back on defense, it's impossible to argue against Florida's potential to repeat by any logic beyond "predictions are stupid"; at least Texas loses some key members of its overwhelming defensive line, opening the door a bit for Oklahoma ... or, uh, Oklahoma State, if you prefer. Still, when you add up the massive losses on the offensive line and at receiver for OU and on Southern Cal's defense (the Trojans lose eight top-notch starters, to say nothing of Mark Sanchez on the other side), there's no coherent way to deny Florida and Texas the top two spots unless you're specifically trying.

There's only one other plausible meme, really, and it's a longshot to catch on: USC as force of nature. Based on overwhelming recruiting and consistency the Trojans still fit the category better than anyone except Florida; SC is the only team in the nation to finish in the final top four each of the last seven years, during which time no one else has even made it into the top-12 on an annual basis. Another round of blowouts in their biggest games made the Trojans look again like unparalleled, hulking monoliths when it comes to sheer physical talent.

If Mark Sanchez had returned, maybe the USC-Florida "collision course" had a chance to take hold. With a new, unproven quarterback, though, joining a mostly young, unproven defense and the maddening tendency to drop some random October road game -- after four inexplicable upsets in three years, all but one on the road, a stumble at Cal or Oregon might be almost expected -- the Trojans can drop their usual claim to unquestioned preseason glory. They'll have to settle for, like, No. 3 instead, which ain't bad, really, as long as Texas or Florida has at least one pratfall in there somewhere.