Dr. Saturday - NCAAF

I was interested in this look at run-pass balance in the SEC earlier this week, which found that a majority of teams in the conference passed more often than they ran in conference games last year, and five of the 12 passed at least 55 percent of the time. If that was true in the SEC, I wondered how the rest of the country would stack up along those same lines -- might we be approaching the point, passed years ago in the NFL, that teams are passing more often than they run, or at about the same rate?

Admittedly, I was kind of hoping that might be the case before I started running the numbers, because that's a finding: Pass has officially surpassed run in college football. But alas, long live the handoff:

Among the big conferences, only the supposedly pass-happy Big 12 comes close to "balance," and more than six times as many teams nationally fall into the category of "run-oriented" (55 percent runs or more) when you take into every game into account. In general, at 55 percent, you could say the entire country remains run-oriented.

There are two major factors that might mitigate that conclusion:

Passing is a result of losing: Although certainly not the other way around. But it's no coincidence that six of the seven teams in the SEC that passed more often than they ran in conference games also finished with .500 or worse records in conference games -- and the only one that ended with a league mark above .500, Georgia, had the smallest margin (51 percent passes to 49 percent runs) and, you know, the No. 1 pick in the draft at quarterback. Where the national picture is concerned, this effect might explain most of the difference between "Big Six" conference teams and the mid-majors, since the former runs substantially more and the latter substantially less in lopsided non-conference games.
Sacks: Because the NCAA counts sacks as running plays, some pass calls turn end up as runs, which can have a pretty significant impact on statistics. In the same way, a pass play can turn into a quarterback scramble, but (contrary to my protests for runners stuck for obvious losses to just throw the ball out of bounds) a run play is always just a run play.

If you take those factors into account, I think it's fair to say we're at a point of more or less equilibrium on the whole for probably the first time ever in college football, and the ratios probably aren't going to budge much for a while; I'm not sure if the pass is going to keep gaining ground, as the influence of "the spread" has always been as much about opening lanes to run as opening up the passing game. The right balance obviously varies from team to team, and game to game.

It does seem clear, though, that, given the opportunity, most coaches would still prefer to play the traditional odds. And given the average quarterback situation, I don't blame them.

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7 Comments

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  1. jt
    1. Posted by jt Fri Jun 26, 2009 8:02 pm EDT

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    runners that are stuck for obvious losses cant throw the ball away with linemen downfield blocking
  2. Chitownhawkeye
    2. Posted by Chitownhawkeye Fri Jun 26, 2009 8:45 pm EDT

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    The Big 12 was at 52% run? Since I'm guessing the team with a greater than 55% passing is Texas Tech, and they passed approximately 100% of the time, who are the two running teams that balanced them out? Nebraska from 1956?
  3. David B
    3. Posted by David B Sat Jun 27, 2009 12:38 pm EDT

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    Jt, since the penalty for lineman downfield is five yards, but you get the down back, it would occasionally be advantageous. The thrower would have to get the ball to the line of scrimmage on the fly, though or else it's intentional grounding with a loss of down.
  4. Fakin
    4. Posted by Fakin Sun Jun 28, 2009 2:28 pm EDT

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    if sacks count as running plays tebow looks like he's about to run it hard
  5. andrew-chen@...
    5. Posted by andrew-chen@... Sun Jun 28, 2009 7:54 pm EDT

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    What the heck? Your lead says that 5 of the 12 SEC teams passed over 55% of the time but then in your chart, you only have 2 teams that are even over 50% pass.
  6. Andrew
    6. Posted by Andrew Mon Jun 29, 2009 10:49 am EDT

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    @ andrew-chen,
    he says that that 5 SEC teams passed over 55% IN CONFERENCE GAMES. It is reasonable to assume, then, that the majority of those teams were able to pound the ball on the ground against their non-conference patsies. The run %age would have to have been fairly significant for 3 of the 5 teams to go from 55+% passing in conference to
  7. Matthew B
    7. Posted by Matthew B Mon Jun 29, 2009 3:31 pm EDT

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    @ andre-chen, as Andrew points out it is the Conference games that put it over 55%. You have to keep in mind when an SEC team is up 35 -0 after 10 minutes because they are playing the Southwestern Alabama Tech school of cooking it makes sense to keep the ball on the ground and run out some clock.

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