Preview: Maui Invitational

The Maui Invitational got its start in 1984 on the heels of “the greatest upset never seen” or, for those of you not familiar with the phrase, Chaminade University’s untelevised upset of Ralph Samson and his then number one ranked Virginia Cavaliers.

Since then, the tournament has really taken off, becoming one of college basketball’s premier preseason tournaments. A quick scroll through the list of former champions, and you should start to get an idea why. Duke, North Carolina, Connecticut, Syracuse, Arizona, Kansas, UCLA and dozens more of the NCAA’s “elite” have gone to Maui and returned home champions.

Aside from Division II Chaminade University, who plays host to the event, The Maui Invitational features seven premiere division one schools representing seven of the top conferences in America. This year the Cincinnati Bearcats will make their first trip to Maui, joining Colorado, Gonzaga, Vanderbilt, Maryland, Wisconsin, and Arizona who round out the tournament field.

With so many good teams involved, the Maui invitational can be a good way for a team to add a few quality wins to its “tournament resume” right from the start. But, it could also be a very good way for a team to put itself in a little bit of a hole heading into the meat of their non-conference schedule.

In the case of the Bearcats, who looked like two completely different teams in their first two games of the season, it’s hard to get a gauge on what exactly might happen when they take the court against Vanderbilt on Monday to get things started off. There’s no question the Bearcats have the talent to compete with anyone else in the tournament, but will they be able to handle the pressure of playing teams, like Vanderbilt, who return so much talent and have had so much time to “gel” as a team.

If you asked 100 different people how the Bearcats will perform in Maui, you’d probably get 100 different answers—and 100 different methods of reasoning for that matter. So, in an effort to help figure things out, the following is a breakdown of each team in the tournament, and a look at how the Bearcats would stack up against them should they met over the course of next week (followed by my fearless prediction which you probably won’t completely agree with).

VANDERBILT

We’ll start with the Vanderbilt Commodores since they are the Bearcats first round opponent, and subsequently the only team the Bearcats are guaranteed to face in Maui.

Vanderbilt returns a lot of talent. In fact, they return just about everyone from last year’s team that finished 19-12 (8-8 SEC) and finished fourth in the SEC East standings.

The Commodores also added to their pool of talent when they added 5-star guard John Jenkins to the roster. Jenkins, who was ranked 15th in the 2009 recruiting class, is a pure scorer who can shoot it with the best of them. He is expected to make a large contribution off the bench this season and provide the Commodores with a scoring lift.

Of the returning players for Vanderbilt, AJ Ogilvy, a Junior center from Australia who by all accounts has an NBA future, is probably the most notable. He averaged 15 points and 7 rebounds as a sophomore, and the Commodores are going to need a lot more of that this season. If Ogilvy can once again be a dominating force on the inside, it’s going to open things up on the outside for Vandy’s arsenal of sharp-shooters. This includes starting point guard Jermaine Beal, starting small forward Jeff Taylor, and shooting guard Brad Tinsley who all have very respectable game from behind the arc. However, what they’re able to do is going to rely heavily on whether or not Ogilvy is able to control things in the paint.

Overall, the Commodores are a talented, experienced, hard-working group that should present a tough matchup for anyone they face all season—Bearcats included.

They showed their willingness to play tough games by accepting a road game against Saint Mary’s this past Friday, just a few days before they were scheduled to tip off the Maui Invitational. If you’ve ever been to, or watched a Saint Mary’s game on television, you know it’s hands down one of the toughest places to play in America. The Commodores escaped that game with a hard-fought 72-70 win.

Whether the energy they were forced to use up in that game will cause any sort of slow start remains to be seen, but if the Bearcats hope to get a win they will need to be ready to play tough, fundamental basketball and limit mistakes because this is a team that is going to make you pay.

ARIZONA

Arizona and Cincinnati find themselves on completely opposite sides of the Bracket, so a few things are going to have to happen just right for them to square-off. But, if they do play each other, it would take place on Wednesday, and it would certainly be an interesting affair.

For starters, Arizona is now coached by former Xavier head man Sean Miller who left Xavier this offseason after former Arizona coach Lute Olsen retired, leaving the program is a state of somewhat shock. Miller certainly has big shoes to fill. With a current streak of NCAA tournament appearances that recently hit a quarter of century, Sean Miller has no doubt inherited the reigns to one of America’s top programs. But, with the amount of talent lost, Miller is going to have his work cut out for him if he hopes to keep that streak alive.

The Wildcats lost Chase Budinger and Jordan Hill at the end of last season, two guys who currently find themselves situated in the NBA, but all was not lost. They return point guard Nic Wise, who may be as important to his team’s success as any other player in the nation. Wise will not only have to be his team’s leading scorer, but as the only Senior on a team packed full out Freshman and Sophomores, his experience is going to be invaluable.

Outside of Wise, the Wildcats starting five features 2 freshman, a sophomore, and a junior. The Wildcats bench features not one player with more than one year of experience. Having witnessed team’s like these first hand in recent years, Bearcat fans should be able to attest to the problems having such a young lineup can cause.

The Wildcats do have a few highly regarded recruits who should help out immediately such as top-100 recruit Solomon Hill, an unselfish small forward who plays the game more like a point guard and can really help his team.

Overall, the Wildcats are a solid team talent-wise who should find themselves somewhere in the middle of the Pac-10 race. The Wildcats opened the season with two wins, 17-point victories over Rice and Northern Arizona. However, they still have a lot to work out on both sides of the ball before they can achieve any substantial success.

COLORADO

The Colorado Buffaloes are coming off one the worst seasons in school history. They finished an abysmal 9-22 (1-12 Big XII), and this season’s outlook, while better, doesn’t appear to be all that great either.

The Colorado backcourt is led by Junior Corry Higgins who led the team is scoring (17.4) and minutes (37.1) last season. The only other returning double-figure scorer is Dwight Thorne II. Thorne, a Senior, is the team’s leading threat from behind the arc. At point guard, Sophomore Australian import Nate Tomlinson will hold things down. Despite being a freshman, Tomlinson was one of only a couple Colorado players who finished with more assists than he did turnovers.

The Colorado frontcourt was, plainly put, not very good last season. Combine that with the fact that the two best frontcourt threats are now gone, and you have a recipe for disaster.

Colorado played last season without a true center last season, but that will change this year with the arrival of 6-11 Freshman Shane Harris-Tunks. Tunks should be a little more experienced that your average run of the mill Freshman considering that he played at the Australian Institute of Sport and spent the summer with two Australian under-19 clubs, but he is still young and will still make plenty of mistakes.

Colorado also added depth with the addition of junior college transfer Marcus Relphorde, but it’s no secret that the Buffaloes are going to struggle down low, and just about everywhere else, this season.

GONZAGA

The Gonzaga Bulldogs were forced to reload this offseason after losing key players Austin Daye, Jeremy Pargo, and Josh Heytvelt, but this isn’t anything new for coach Mark Few. And, as we saw in their early season matchup with second ranked Michigan State, Gonzaga should do just fine this season.

Gonzaga’s backcourt was decimated, leaving Matt Bouldin as the only returning starter. Luckily for Gonzaga, Bouldin happens to be a good one. Last season he averaged 13 points, 3 assists, and 4 rebounds for the Bulldogs, and he figures to only improve on those numbers this season. The Bulldogs are also hoping to get a little more out of Steven Grey this season which would take some of the pressure off of Bouldin. Grey, a junior, averaged 9 points per contest last season.

The Bulldogs front court took a massive hit when Austin Daye and Josh Heytvelt left at the end of last season. Freshman Robert Sacre is their most experienced option. The seven-foot center only played in 5 games as a freshman before his season was cut short by a foot injury. The other starter at power forward will be Sam Dower, a freshman who will be forced to carry a big load in his first year on campus.

Gonzaga figures to be the class of the West Coast Conference once again this season despite some key losses. With so many new faces, they’re going to struggle at times, but head coach Mark Few is one of the best in the nation at getting the most out of his young players. The Bulldogs are by no means going to have an easy time with anyone they face in the tournament, but they have to be considered one of the favorites to win based on their early season success.

MARYLAND

When you think Maryland Terrapins, the player who immediately comes to mind is 22-year old Greivas Vasquez, a future NBA point guard who, after months of deliberation, decided to forgo the draft and return to school for his senior season. That decision alone makes the Terrapins a threat, but the rest of their team looks solid as well.

The Terrapins backcourt, obviously lead by Vasquez, also features Adrian Bowie, a quick, agile guard who can get to the basket almost at will. However if he hopes to keep defenders off balance, Bowie will need to improve his 3-point shot (he shot just 22 percent last season) because defenders are starting to relax on him and let him have the open look.

The Terrapins frontcourt will suffer from the loss of Dave Neal. While Neal may not have been the flashiest player, he was a dependable cog in Maryland’s offense that will now need to be replaced. The Terrapins hope two promising Freshman can help fill that role. James Padgett and Jordan Williams should both make an immediate impact for Maryland, but as it goes with any Freshman, they’re going to struggle at times. The lack of experience in the post could really hurt them this season.

Maryland should be a solid test for the Bearcats should they meet up. That matchup is fairly likely to happen if the Bearcats can take care of business against Vanderbilt in the opening round. If the Bearcats win, and Maryland takes care of business against Chaminade, the two teams would then meet on Tuesday in the second round.

WISCONSIN

The Wisconsin Badgers have experienced an immense amount of success under ninth-year head coach Bo Ryan. In fact, the Badgers are a perfect 8-for-8 in making the NCAA tournament with him at the helm. This year, with a loaded big ten and the loss of two starters, the Badgers will face their toughest test to date if they hope to continue that run.

On paper, the Badgers don’t appear to the most talented or athletic team you’re going to come across. Still, coach Ryan seems to always get the most out of the least amount of talent. If they hope to succeed this year, he’ll need to do so again.

The backcourt shouldn’t skip a beat headed into this season. Senior guards Trevon Hughes and Jason Bohannon are both quality guards who, despite struggling with consistency at times last year, should be able to hold their own against many of the nation’s best backcourts.

It’s the frontcourt, however, that poses the real problems for the Badgers. Junior Jon Leuer, the Badgers best returning big man, has been criticized in the past for being too thin, but he has put on some weight and should be able to hold his own. Between Freshman Jared Berggren and Junior Keaton Nankivil, the Badgers hope to get a consistent amount of production from the other forward spot.

The Badgers are a hard team to judge at this point in the season, but it’s hard to argue with the success of coach Bo Ryan. If what he has done in the past is any indication, expect to see a very disciplined Wisconsin team who will be right in this thing until the end.

THE PREDICTION

Ironically, the Bearcats begin the Maui Invitational by facing potentially their toughest test of the entire week. The matchup with Vanderbilt is sure to be an entertaining one. Both teams like to play at a quick pace, and both teams are capable of getting hot from behind the arc. Vanderbilt, on paper, has an advantage on UC in team chemistry, but I think things are really starting to come together for the Bearcats.

The Bearcats still won’t be totally on the same page on Monday when they take the court for the third time this season, but I think you can expect to see improved levels of hustle, intensity, and fundamental play. It won’t be pretty, but I think the Bearcats escape this one with a close (and I mean close) victory.

Which brings us to the second round and a matchup with (I’m assuming) Maryland. Maryland has Greivas Vasquez, who is sure to give the Bearcats a ton of fits. But outside of Vasuez, I’m just not overly impressed with the rest of Maryland’s roster—particularly their talent on the inside. I look for Yancy Gates to have a monster game, and I think UC handles Maryland and advances to the championship game.

In the finals I think the Bearcats find themselves in a matchup with the Gonzaga Bulldogs. The Bulldogs are tough. Despite their youth, they showed they can still play at a very high level while remaining nearly mistake-free. They’re a tough draw for anyone, and I think the Bearcats will struggle. I predict a Gonzaga victory in this one. A relatively close victory, but nevertheless, a victory.

But…

If, and that’s a very big if, the leaders of this Bearcat team can rally the troops and keep their minds on basketball and off of the beach, as well as catch-fire from the behind the arc, I think they’ll find themselves in it at the end. It’s a long shot, but if the Bearcats can get a few balls to bounce their way, don’t be surprised if they come home 2009 Maui Invitational Champions.