On Monday, I mentioned that the Big Ten actually, for once, seemed to have a puncher's chance in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge. This hinged on teams like Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, Ohio State -- teams in the middle class of the Big Ten -- getting their act together and deciding, like so many swing voters in any given election, the final result of the proceedings. It also included the possibility that Purdue was getting Duke at home. That appeared to be a winnable game.

After two nights of the Challenge, that whole Big Ten-maybe-winning-this-year is not looking so good. Not at all.

Minnesota took care of business, but Illinois and Iowa both missed their down-to-the-wire close opportunities. Purdue, as most everyone probably saw, did not do so well. (That's what happens when you don't hit threes.) Like the early returns of a presidential underdog, the Big Ten needed those early victories to save its optimism. The victories didn't happen.

So while the contest is currently tied, here's what's in store for the night: Indiana's hapless (but gutsy!) band of ragtags will be dismembered by Wake Forest; Penn State will have a similar time at Georgia Tech; and Northwestern, even at home, will likely lose to FSU. That leaves Michigan at Maryland, which Michigan could win, but which isn't any sure thing; and Michigan State hosting North Carolina in Ford Field. An upset isn't entirely out of the question here but ... actually, yeah, it kind of is. North Carolina is incredible. And even if it wasn't, the Big Ten couldn't get back to level without an upset somewhere else. The whole thing looks pretty questionable.

And so we return to our presidential metaphor: The Big Ten needs some unlikely wins in some states that typically go the other way. I'm no Nate Silver, but right now, The Dagger is prepared to project the 2008 ACC-Big Ten Challenge will be won by ... the ACC. Same as it ever was.

Related: Big Ten Basketball, ACC Basketball