West Virginia (-1) vs. Xavier (-1)
7:10 pm ET. Verne Lundquist and Bill Raftery.

Ideal Scenario: A close, spirited, hard-fought game, and in a perfect world, I've got West Virginia moving on. For entertainment value, I think that's a better bet, for two reasons. 1) They've been the most quotable team of the tournament. The latest from Joe Alexander, in today's USA Today: "We're playing a two-week season. And then we come home and get fitted for our rings." And 2) the storyline against UCLA is a little better, as WVU's beaten them each of the past two years.

More Likely Scenario: I think a close, hard-fought game is the most likely scenario. It doesn't have the star power of anything else happening tonight, but it might be the most evenly-matched game.

These are two talented teams, with players who can fill it up. They both dig in on defense, they both can score, and they're both well-coached. As for the winner, as the line tells you, it's very close call, but I don't see how this couldn't be a very good game.

Washington State vs. UNC (-7)
7:27 pm ET.  Dick Enberg and Jay Bilas.

Ideal Scenario: Contrary to popular belief, I do not hate Washington State, and I and would love to see them send Carolina home. If I had to choose between an uptempo game in the 90s and a Carolina win, or a grind-it-out game in the 50s and a Washington State win, I'll take the Washington State win every time and not think twice about it. I'm all about the underdogs.

I'd love to see the game come down to one last possession, with the ball in Derrick Low's hands and the chance to put himself in the "One Shining Moment" video.

More Likely Scenario: Carolina's up by 18 points with 4 minutes to play, and most of the nation is shipped off to Phoenix to watch the end of the West Virginia vs. Xavier game.

Western Kentucky vs. UCLA (-12)
Approx 9:40 pm ET. Verne Lundquist and Bill Raftery.

Ideal Scenario: Oh, something like this. This is the ultimate underdog scenario left. Yes, Villanova's also a 12-seed, but if you're from a major conference and in the Sweet 16, your Cinderella slipper doesn't shine quite as brightly as it does if you're from the Sun Belt. A Western Kentucky win over a 1-seed would be one of the all-time great tournament stories.

More Likely Scenario: UCLA's perimeter defense eats Courtney Lee and Tyrone Brazelton alive. Even aside from the fact that it's a 12-seed against a 1-seed, this is a bad matchup for Western Kentucky. Darren Collins and Russell Westbrook guard like demons, and those are WKU's biggest weapons. I'm sorry, Big Red, and I'll miss you. Enjoy Louisville vs. Tennessee.

Louisville (-2) vs. Tennessee
Approx. 9:57 pm ET. Dick Enberg and Jay Bilas.

Ideal Scenario: J.P. Prince has an outstanding game at point guard for the Vols (and I believe he'll be starting; just a hunch), and both teams are running and pressuring the hell out of one another for 40 minutes. It's the kind of game where even Rick Pitino sweats through a suit (Bruce Pearl's almost a lock to sweat through his suit, even in a November game against Arkansas Monticello), players are cramping up, and it comes down to who can best keep their composure at the end of the game.

More Likely Scenario: I see Louisville frustrating the Vols a bit throughout the game, forcing turnovers, playing excellent defense, and wearing them down mentally. Louisville's on top of their game right now, and they've got all the confidence in the world, while Tennessee was probably playing better ball back in February.

Related: The Big Dance