The Dagger - NCAAB

Reputation plays a huge role in early-season college basketball polls. Before the conference slate starts, teams are ranked more on the perception of talent rather than the proof of talent. If a team is thought to be good in November, it can stay ranked through January even without showing much in the way of results. Conversely, teams that have to work their way into the rankings must demonstrate they belong.

Oftentimes, the perception can be correct. At this time last year, North Carolina was ranked No. 1 because voters assumed they had the most talented roster in the country. On the court, UNC hadn't played many teams that confirmed this, but voters still put them in the top spot anyway. The perception was validated during the rest of the season.

On the flip side, Oregon was ranked No. 19 in that same poll last year without having a single quality win on their schedule. The Ducks soon fell out of the rankings and struggled to reach .500 in the Pac 10. The perception of the quality of Oregon's basketball team was incorrect.

Today, The Dagger looks at the current AP Top 25 and decides whether each team is ranked by results or reputation. Teams that have been determined to have been ranked by results are slotted in a spot that reflects their schedule and results. If a team is listed in the rep column, they have yet to prove they're worthy of their ranking. (It doesn't mean they aren't good, by the way, just that they haven't demonstrated it yet.)

1) North Carolina -- Results

A stacked field that included Texas and Notre Dame couldn't touch UNC at the Maui Invitational. The Heels also wrecked Michigan State at Ford Field.

2) Connecticut -- Results

Won by double-digits in back-to-back games against ranked teams to win the Paradise Jam Tournament that you probably didn't see because it wasn't on ESPN. The Huskies barely beat Buffalo last week, but chalk that one up to looking ahead to the 11-day exam break.

3) Pittsburgh -- Rep

Jamie Dixon's Panthers are good, as usual, but wins over Texas Tech and Washington State aren't as impressive as some other team's early-season victories.

4) Gonzaga -- Results

Like, for instance, Gonzaga. Some are saying this is Mark Few's best team. The wins over Maryland and Tennessee support this notion.

5) Oklahoma -- Results

The win over Purdue may end up being one of those wins that's less impressive in retrospect, but if Davidson continues beating up on major conference foes, the Sooners victory over Stephen Curry and company will be remembered come March.

6) Texas -- Rep

Michigan also beat UCLA. The only difference is, that's the second best win on the Wolverines resume.

7) Duke -- Rep

The verdict is out on the merit of that Purdue victory. Splitting with Michigan, while nothing to be ashamed of, is hardly the stuff upon which a top 10 foundation is built.

8) Tennessee -- Results

A similar resume to Texas -- splitting the two big games on the early schedule -- except that Tennessee lost to an undefeated Gonzaga team and beat a previously undefeated Georgetown squad.

9) Louisville -- Rep

It's an insult to Pittsburgh, Texas and Duke to include them in the same category as Louisville. At least those teams have proven they can beat and/or play with anyone in the country. Louisville has lost to Western Kentucky and can't brag about any of its wins. (Unless that win against Indiana State came in 1979.)

10) Xavier -- Results

The Muskateers have beat all comers, something that can't be said for the team above them.

11) Wake Forest -- Rep

The Deacs were appropriately ranked in the low-teens. But number eleven might be a little high for a young team whose best win has come against Baylor.

12) Notre Dame -- Rep

The Irish have played three big games this season. They are 1-2 in those games.

13) Syracuse -- Results

Kansas and Florida aren't the Final Four contenders they have been in recent years, but they still stand as marquee wins for a Syracuse squad that used to have an aversion to early season tests.

14) Purdue -- Rep

The Boilermakers have no bad losses (cough, Louisville, cough), but their best win has come against a Boston College team that will fight to be in the top-half of the ACC.

15) Villanova -- Rep

Ignoring their result last night against Texas, Jay Wright's talented squad was ranked 15th based on wins over: Albany, Fordham, Niagara, Monmouth, Towson, Rhode Island, Penn and Houston Baptist. Oh, and all of those games were played in Philadelphia (which Wright himself self-deprecatingly pointed out last night when on set with Bobby Knight and Digger Phelps).

16) UCLA -- Rep

Best win: Miami (OH). The Redhawks, by the way, are 3-3 on the year, but those three losses have come to Pittsburgh, Xavier and UCLA.

17) Memphis -- Rep

We'll find out whether Memphis is for real this weekend when they face Georgetown.

18) Michigan State -- Rep

The blowout loss to North Carolina is understandable. The blowout loss to Maryland is less so.

19) Georgetown -- Results

The Hoyas hung tough with Tennessee and wiped the floor with Maryland. Number nineteen is a good spot.

20) Arizona State -- Rep

Arizona State and Baylor each have one loss. ASU's was to Baylor, Baylor's was to No. 11 Wake Forest. Who's ranking these teams, the BCS?

21) Ohio State -- Results

The Buckeyes are undefeated and beat Notre Dame. If anything, they could complain about how low expectations hurt their early-season ranking.

22) Baylor -- Results

(See: Arizona State)

23) Davidson -- Results

The loss to Oklahoma dropped Stephen Curry and company, but the Wildcats should see their ranking rise as they roll through the Southern Conference once again.

24) Marquette -- Results

Beat Wisconsin but lost to Dayton; No. 24 seems about right.

25) Kansas -- Results

But does it really matter? If this season doesn't pan out for the Jayhawks, fans can just cue up the DVR of Mario Chalmers hitting that three.

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28 Comments

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  1. fogie1
    1. Posted by fogie1 Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:42 pm EDT

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    Another factor that is considered on the rankings is the established program at the university by the coaching staff and with that comes better recruiting. It is very rare that a team can have one player like Stephen Curry that can step up and carry a team to a title. As a 30 year KU fan I know that KU will not win the title this year, but with the coaching staff they have and being in the BIG 12 conference ( which is proving to be one of the top conferences in the nation) the team will learn fast what it takes to win. It is also known that Allen field house is one of the hardest places to win a game if your an opponent.
  2. dbd
    2. Posted by dbd Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:51 pm EDT

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    How can you so easily dismiss Connecticut's near-loss to a Buffalo team that has gone 4-3 and lost games to Evansville and Niagara by claiming that they were "looking ahead to the 11-day exam break" but then penalize Duke for losing to Michigan?
    Duke was looking also looking at an 11-day break and had just (easily) beaten a very good Purdue team. Michigan is a much better team than Buffalo that took care of business against UCLA. And, they only beat Duke on their second chance, in a trap game on a cold shooting night.
    The way I see it, the near loss to a lackluster Buffalo team looks much worse on Connecticut's resume than Duke's loss to a very good Michigan team.
    I'm not saying Duke's ranking isn't based on reputation, but in terms of what they have proved this season, I don't see much of a difference between those two schools.
  3. falconry2
    3. Posted by falconry2 Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:58 pm EDT

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    Gonzaga just spanked WSU in the second half, hitting .475 against the #1 field goal defense in the nation. They held WSU to .325 shooting. What it comes down to is Coach Few has a good system and a few good players,but Gonzaga still has a harder time recruiting than say Duke, or N.C. Look at the "local" talent the Zags put into play and the record that the team has had these last 10 years and you just have to give them the most respect possible. I still want to see Gonzaga win "ugly" but they do have talent AND depth on the bench.
  4. tim
    4. Posted by tim Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:11 pm EDT

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    Jsk: the difference between the two? Connecticut still won. I'll take a win over a bad team rather than a loss to a good one any day of the week. UConn has beaten a couple of very good teams. Duke hasn't. Who have they played? Purdue? Please - Purdue can't beat anybody worth a pound of salt right now.
    And before you flame me for being a "Duke hater," do realize that I'm saying it as I see it. Chris Chase called it right. Duke will have opportunities to prove they are legit. So far, they just haven't proven it.
  5. PhilFAN
    5. Posted by PhilFAN Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:01 pm EDT

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    Nova's 3 Sweet 16s in the past 4 years, is the reason for the rep. They won a tough intra city game against St. Joes last night, and are 9-1. The ranking and rep are well deserved. Columns like this one serve no purpose, except to earn you a paycheck. Get a real job. The tournament will sort all this out. Nice try.
  6. andy d
    6. Posted by andy d Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:54 pm EDT

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    I love how people dismiss Purdue because they lost to #7 Duke and #5 Oklahoma. They had 2 practices to get ready for Duke (which anyone knows is not enough) after losing in OT to Oklahoma. A game they should have won but there was a 41-5 free throw disparity. Say what you want but the Boilers got screwed. All the same, they're not going away and you will hear more about them in Feb and March!!
  7. Armchair Expert
    7. Posted by Armchair Expert Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:09 pm EDT

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    I cant believe UT is #6/rep and Oklahoma is #5/results!!!!! will no one ever give UT its credit due? UT has played 3 teams in the top 15 and lost only one of those games by 1 point,OU has only played one in the top 15 so far but is ranked higher than UT. OU played 'powerhouse' gardner-webb (who?) and won by only 4 points and played an unranked USC and won by only 1 point but chris says they are the #5 team by results, he's either an OU alumni or he's a complete idiot,I bet it's option 2.
  8. Armchair Expert
    8. Posted by Armchair Expert Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:09 pm EDT

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    chris' dad must own rivals ,cause he sure don't know this game!
  9. FredrickT
    9. Posted by FredrickT Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:52 pm EDT

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    It's impossible for anybody, even the most astute writer, to "see the whole court." Early season polls have to be based on reputation, but they're also based on exposure. BYU, for example, is 9-0 and has something of a reputation as a basketball school, but is still not even on the charts. Granted, they have played no great teams with the exception of Utah State (7-1), which is also unranked and not on the radar, despite being the fourth or fifth winningest team in the nation in the last 10 years. What's the problem with these two schools with storied basketball traditions? Not so much reputation as press. In a sport where most teams can lose on any given night, where you start in the polls makes a difference in where you're seeded in the tourney. It's, of course, more convoluted than that, but that's why an article like this is enlightening and off the mark at the same time. Polls are based on what people know and nobody knows everything.
  10. ZROB
    10. Posted by ZROB Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:49 pm EDT

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    16) UCLA -- Rep
    "Best win: Miami (OH). The Redhawks, by the way, are 3-3 on the year, but those three losses have come to Pittsburgh, Xavier and UCLA. "
    While UCLA's offense looked anemic at MSG, rather than beating themselves I believe they lost to Michigan.
  11. snoopy
    11. Posted by snoopy Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:30 pm EDT

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    Armchair....you still mad about the BCS? Must be a Texan.
  12. Brian F
    12. Posted by Brian F Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:13 pm EDT

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    Chris, i would love you to expand this even more by taking teams that should be in the top 25, based on results, but are not, because they weren't expected to be good. or because they didn't come from powerhouse conference, or don't have the national pedigree.
    with regards connecticut -- the point is, they won, on the road. how many top teams go on the road to play midmajors? most top schools avoid them like the plague -- if you win, you are expected to. if you lose, you're overrated. dookie tries to take a win and translate it into overrated. take a look at most teams that have gone on to the final four in the last 10 years, all of them have had 5-6 games where they either lost a game they were supposed to, or barely hung on to beat a team that they should have crushed.
  13. beotch
    13. Posted by beotch Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:12 pm EDT

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    Gonzaga....From what I have seen, if I were another top team, I would be a tad worried. Depth at the bench, heck, depth and 6 guys that can easily shoot 20 per game. That my friends is something to sink your dunkin' donuts into.
  14. smile
    14. Posted by smile Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:44 pm EDT

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    RPI on January 1is better indicator. Money drives the game now (duh!). So schools have to schedule to fund the money machine. With very few exceptions, BCS schools play 10 games in their arena against very few quality teams. The key to BCS teams are the neutral court games (they don't play on non BCS home team floors unless it is a pre-1980 rivalry).
    I look at all schools the same. The more OCC victories against the top 100 RPI teams as of 1/1; the better they are. I would like to see a tourney minimum of 3 OOC road victories to be an at-large team in the tourney. It won't happen though; too much money at stake!
    For non-BCS I apply a different measure. They also have to meet the 3 win goal. But I temper that to look and see if they got homered
  15. smile
    15. Posted by smile Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:44 pm EDT

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    Gonzaga finally has several athletic players on the court at the same time. IMO this year will be the first in awhile that it's not one and gone Gonzaga.
  16. Playoff
    16. Posted by Playoff Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:42 pm EDT

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    The good thing about stupid conjencture at this point of the season is that it helps keeps writers like this off the unemployment line. To call Texas's ranking "Rep" right now completely undermines the validity of any argument you can try or claim to make. Texas year in and year out plays one of the toughest non-conference schedules, and this year is no exception. They have already played Notre Dame, Villanova, and UCLA--having won two of those games and lost the other by 1 point. They have several good out-of-conference games coming up. So--how exactly are they relying on reputation right now? Which other school has done more at this point in the season? You can't make the argument for UNC that "A stacked field that included Texas and Notre Dame couldn't touch UNC at the Maui Invitational." without also saying that they only played one of those teams--Notre Dame. Inane, asinine, ludicrous--choose whatever word you want. This article is nothing--at least, unlike football, we will have an actual tournament at the end of the year which will at the very least validate the current #6 ranking for Texas, and at the best--show that this writer is all rep and no results himself.
  17. jdog
    17. Posted by jdog Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:43 pm EDT

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    The Zags are looking HOT this year!!!! I really hope my hometown (spokane) team makes the final four. Go get em dogs!!
  18. beotch
    18. Posted by beotch Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:12 pm EDT

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    Good point on the RPI on Jan 1st, but maybe todays game against Connecticut will tell quite a bit as well....I suppose it's all pretty much mute until February. At least it's worth thinking about at the least.
  19. beotch
    19. Posted by beotch Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:12 pm EDT

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    Scratch that...I must have been scratching something else at the time I typed todays sched...Need some anti-itch
  20. jerry
    20. Posted by jerry Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:04 pm EDT

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    The Buckeyes are a very young team with a lot of talent. If they come together and grow,they can give anyone trouble.
  21. Trav
    21. Posted by Trav Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:51 pm EDT

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    I don't know why LOUISVILLE scheduled such a weak preconference schedule, we'll see how they do the rest of the season GO CARDS!!!!!!!!!
  22. Mason
    22. Posted by Mason Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:10 pm EDT

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    As a Duke grad, I've watched their program and rankings over the years. While a current No. 7 may be based on rep, by the time Feb 1 rolls around, they will have played Xavier, Davidson, Georgetown and Wake Forest, along with going thru part of the ACC schedule. As with any year, the acid test will be the Carolina games on Feb 11(home) and Mar 8(away). Yes, there are a few "easier" teams early in the season. Keep in mind that Duke had Purdue selected for them in the Big Ten/ACC challenge series. They are the only 10-0 team for that challenge series. I like several others would like to see the renewal of the Big East/ACC challenge, as that would be a good test for the league. By sometime in late Jan/early Feb, every team's ranking will be based on results.
  23. T S
    23. Posted by T S Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:17 pm EDT

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    I am still in shock that someone (post#2) said michigan was a good team. Michigan has a good coach. Their team is mediocre at best. And that's even in the Big 10 which is even more mediocre and even worse to watch. The big east has far to many teams in the top 25 and that's coming from a cuse fan. they have 5GOOD teams the rest could easily go 500. We have to equate that Pitt are the Chargers of college basketball. Great regular seasons.. Early out post season.... i agree with post 22 the big east needs to be back in a conference matchup series. How can people even want to watch the big 10 play anyone????.
  24. Moochiero
    24. Posted by Moochiero Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:34 pm EDT

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    A North Carolina Man,North Carolina fan,Carolina Blue nikes how i stand.Ranked #1 in all the land so haters from Duke to Maryland ,trying too take the time to comprehend.When you meet then youll understand.East coast,West coast,there the team with the most.Betting money youll go broke.Just like drugs just no,keep yo money in pocket bro,keep the peace at home want have to talk throgh close door,fo sho,awwman times up gotta go.Until next when i blow hold tight with that thought and ill bless the site.
  25. TOM
    25. Posted by TOM Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:33 pm EDT

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    Gonzaga......Oops. A loss to Arizona. They look pretty good. Maybe not final four quality.

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