Wed Mar 11, 2009 11:28 am EDT
College basketball's RPI ratings are sort of like TV weathermen. They're both unrepentantly unreliable, routinely giving erroneous information and yet each is still held in high reverence by the masses. It doesn't matter how many times Al Roker blows a snow forecast, we're all suckered in the next time. And this March, even while badmouthing the RPI's dicey mathematical conclusions, the college basketball world is still quoting the numbers like they're some sort of numerical gospel. It has to stop.
Case in point: Duke is currently ranked No. 2 in the formula on realtimerpi.com. (Before our merry band of pro-Duke commenters get on my case, please note that this is an anti-RPI screed, not an anti-Duke one. There's plenty of time this month for that.) Duke, the team that wasn't even second in its own conference ... Duke, the team that has the same amount of losses as the No. 3 and No. 4 teams combined ... Duke, the team that got swept by Carolina ... yeah, they're No. 2.
Even Mike Krzyzewski wouldn't argue that Duke should be rated ahead of Carolina right now. Yet there they are on the RPI, sitting snuggly behind No. 1 Pittsburgh. Yesterday morning, the Blue Devils were No. 3 in the realtimerpi.com formulations, but after a day in which both they are UNC were idle, Duke jumped their rivals.
It's due to the fact that there was some minute change in each team's strength of schedule, which is formulated by an opponent's winning percentange and the winning percentage of opponent's opponents. It's sort of like the college basketball version of the butterfly effect. If a shot goes down in Madison Square Garden an undeserving team moves up in the RPI.
The Dagger is a college basketball blog edited by Jeff Eisenberg. Email him, and follow him on Twitter.

Posted Jan 28 2010
Posted Jan 28 2010
Posted Jan 28 2010
Edited by MJD
Edited by 'Duk
Edited by J.E. Skeets
Edited by Greg Wyshynski
Edited by Matt Hinton
Edited by Chris Chase
Edited by Jay Busbee
Edited by Jay Busbee
Edited by Steve Cofield
Edited by Chris Chase
Edited by Chris Chase
Edited by Brooks Peck
Edited by Andy Behrens
14 Comments
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/speaking for all Duke fans before they get their panties in a wad.
GO HEELS!!!!!!
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go to: http://www.kenpom.com/rate.php
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2. Lost, AT HOME, by 18 points to Maryland. This is a disgrace. MD didn't beat anybody in the ACC by 18 points, not even GT. Their big blowout win was an 11 point "pounding" of NC State. In the ACC, Michigan State might go .500.
3. Lost, AT HOME, to Northwestern, (8-10 in Big 11, with 4 gift wins from Indiana and Iowa) . No number 1 seed should lose to NW at any time and under any circumstance.
4. And most shocking, lost, AT HOME, to Penn State!!!. The only real, out of conference teams PSU played were Temple and Rhoad Island, and lost both at home. PSU might go .500 in the Atlantic 16. Just for being part of that atrocious 38-33 game at Illinois, PSU should get no bid. (Illinois should be banished to Division II for their performance.)
In short that is not the resume of a number 1 seed -- a 4 seed maybe, but not a 1.
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if you look up the rpi formula and plug in all of the numbers duke is ahead of carolina. the formula doesn't change, don't complain about it.
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"North Carolina won the title, despite playing just six games against the other five first-division teams (Duke twice; Wake, FSU, Clemson and BC once each) with five games against games against the three bottom teams. Wake Forest, which tied Duke for second, played seven first-division opponents (Duke and Clemson twice; UNC, FSU and BC once) and five games against the bottom three."
So the evidence you cite as evidence that the RPI is unreliable--that Duke is ranked higher in the RPI than in their own conference standings--actually does more to demonstrate the RPI's real purpose (value): providing the tournament selection committee with a second point-of-reference regarding a team's worthiness of a bid or of a particular seed. Conference schedule imbalances (post-expansion) have made it impossible for the committee to make those judgments based on conference records alone.
With that being said, for your next blog entry, perhaps you should write about how Wake Forest, the same team that, unlike Duke, only played UNC once this year (at home, no less)......Wake Forest, the team that recently lost to NC State.......yeah, they actually don't deserve the #2 seed in the ACC tourney.
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"Duke played eight games against first-division teams (UNC, Wake and FSU twice; Clemson and BC once - both on the road) and just three against the bottom three."
Compare Duke's 8 against top-five and 3 against bottom-3 with Wake's 7 against top-5 and 5 against bottom-3 and tell me if you still think Wake deserves the #2 seed, given that Duke and Wake have the same in-conference record, and that Duke and WF split their two games, with Duke's margin of victory against Wake being five times greater than Wake's against Duke.
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Wildcat reference?
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