Mon Mar 23, 2009 8:30 am EDT
Last
year, we had all four number one seeds advance to the Final Four of the NCAA
tournament. And this year, in what's even a bigger crime against the concept of
the underdog, all of the one, two and three seeds have combined to go 24-0 in
the first two rounds of the tournament.
The highest-seeded team left is 12-seed Arizona, who won a game in which they were actually favored in the first round, and then beat a 13-seed in the second round. The second-highest seed left is the fifth-seeded Purdue Boilermakers. After that, it's 1s, 2s, 3s and 4s.
Cinderella will not be joining us in 2009. Cinderella spends her evenings waitressing at a truckstop, her late nights mopping up at a massage parlor and her days smoking Marlboro Reds, making non-stop calls to the Maury Povich show and trying to convince Dale to put some damn pants on and find a job. She's not coming to our ball.
What gives? Why isn't Cinderella joining us anymore? Have mid-majors lost some of their mojo? Have the big-time teams learned to counter the precise offenses and tenacious defenses of their less-talented brethren? Is it the NBA age limit thing that essentially requires young fellows who would normally jump to the NBA to spend a year playing college ball? Is Cinderella not coming to the Sweet 16 because she has a restraining order against Eric Devendorf, and he's not allowed within 100 feet of her?
I don't know the answer. But we're chalkier now than we've ever been, and I've made a sweet graph to illustrate the point. The numbers represent the average seed of all four teams who made the Final Four in a given year.

2006 was the George Mason year, which throws things off a bit, but even without it (and 2000, for that matter, when two eight-seeds made the Final Four), we'd see a trend climb upwards since 2000.
The timing makes sense with the NBA age limit deal, and it certainly made a difference last year, with Derrick Rose and Kevin Love. But save for maybe Tyreke Evans (and that may be a stretch), no one really fits that description this year.
The other possibility is that I'm drawing too big a conclusion from just two years of heavy chalk, and we really don't have a large enough sample size to know anything for sure. I'll grant that that's a distinct possibility.
Maybe it's not the case, though. Maybe we're entering an era where Cinderella has permanently turned into a pumpkin, and on Halloween, someone carved Rick Pitino's face into her. For better or worse, that's what we had last year, and it's what it looks like we're going to have again this year.
The Dagger is a college basketball blog edited by Jeff Eisenberg. Email him, and follow him on Twitter.

Posted Jan 28 2010
Posted Jan 28 2010
Posted Jan 28 2010
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49 Comments
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HILARIOUS.
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The NBA minimum age rule probably has some impact here (the top teams have more pro prospects than before), but it could also just be a fluke. Let's not forget, last year part of the reason the 1s made it was because there was all sorts of early-round chaos - two 12s in the Sweet 16, a 10 in the Elite Eight. Sure, they'd be favored against anyone, but when your road to the Final Four goes 16-8-12-10 as a 1 seed, you darn well better make it. This year, except for Louisville, all of the 1s are going to have to go through, at worst, a 5 and a 3.
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I think a claim could be made for Villanova 1985 (winner as 8 seed), LSU 1986 (Final 4 as 11 seed had a shot with Shaq), Kansas in 1988 as a 6 seed is borderline. Utah and UNLV are the only two non-power conference schools to make it since 1966 UTEP (ok--UMass is in there too, but it got revoked, and George Mason in 2006 could be a Cinderella). History shows that the winner is going to be Power conference school. So how about the term Cinderella refering to a power conference school who either wasn't supposed to make it in (UNC 2000 Arizona this year) or a power conference school who has a 6 or lower seed (that would put them outside the TOP 25). That's if you want the term to mean something. As for the mid-majors...give 'em press but call them Bracket Busters or Mad Mid-Majors out to prove they can hang. You media types have a marketing department that can sizzle up the steak use them, just don't let them use the term Cinderella.
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