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Wed Jan 07, 2009 12:14 pm EST

Deluded Big Ten coaches think eight teams deserve NCAA bids

By Eamonn Brennan

Weber face! 

The Big Ten has had an OK start to the season, and it has some teams playing some OK basketball, and yadda yadda yadda, Tom Izzo and Bruce Weber think the conference will get eight teams in the tournament, and ... wait. What?

Illinois coach Bruce Weber said as many as seven teams will play in the tournament. Michigan State coach Tom Izzo predicted as many as eight. And they say coaches don't like to look ahead? Much will depend on "how many teams can get big wins on the road," Weber said Monday. "A lot can happen in that time, including the Big Ten tournament. … I think we've established the league as a whole."

Of course coaches in the Big Ten are going to say such things. Proclaiming your conference "established" in early January is silly in and of itself, but it's what coaches do. They play up the aspects of their environment that make their teams look better. So it's hard to have one's sensibilities too offended by the above comments. But ...

The Big Ten has about as much chance of getting eight teams in the tournament as the Big East has of getting four. Let's mentally count the teams that look remotely tournament worthy, or, as Bruce Weber would say, established: Michigan State. Wisconsin. Michigan. Illinois. Minnesota. Those are the only five teams remotely close to sure things. Does anyone think Iowa -- after barely beating the worst Indiana team of all-time, at home -- will stick around? Purdue has had a rough conference start but is a likely enough candidate to put it together. Say the Boilermakers get in, and that's six. Who's next? Penn State? Ohio State? Specious, at best.

And that's just a quick silly read of the situation. If you start doing the math, it becomes even more unlikely; each of these teams, most of them mediocre, are going to beat up on each other, and a certain amount of wins and losses is usually required to impress the NCAA selection committee. Wins don't just pop out of nowhere. They're finite.

This isn't to say it couldn't happen. It could. It's not impossible. Penn State and Iowa could get in the tournament, just like I could one day join Cut Copy and start making awesome electronic music with cool Australian dudes, or just like Bruce Weber might one day stop making that crazy face when he yells at officials. It could, theoretically, happen. But it won't.

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65 Comments

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  1. JayeL
    1. Posted by JayeL Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:11 pm EDT

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    Agreed. It still way too early for these coaches to be talking about March, but its part of the job. As a Michigan State fan, I like what I see from the Spartans so far, but their inside game needs to vastly improve. They cannot live on 3pointers like they did last night. Saturday, against Kansas should be a test.
    Nice Cut Copy reference.
  2. Aaron
    2. Posted by Aaron Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:47 pm EDT

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    They do deserve 8 spots. Don't hate greatness.
  3. Max
    3. Posted by Max Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:57 pm EDT

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    i like how you automatically count out ohio state despite the fact that they are clearly superior to the team they fielded last year.
  4. Marcus
    4. Posted by Marcus Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:42 pm EDT

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    If the Big Ten deserves 8 spots, then the Big East deserves to have all currently ranked teams get in. Oh, let's just throw in South Florida for laughs too.
  5. Timatot
    5. Posted by Timatot Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:10 pm EDT

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    The big ten has 8 teams currently ranked in the rpi top 50 which is a prime consideration for the NCAA. With non-conference play all but over, ACC and Big East teams will improve their strength of schedule while most others will lose ground, especially mid-majors. The big ten is likely to maintain footing, even if they beat each other up. Eight is probably a stretch, but six is likely, seven possible if OSU can learn how to play without Lighty.
  6. Phil
    6. Posted by Phil Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:10 pm EDT

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    rpi!!!"???!!! IS A JOKE. look at the rankings and who is ranked. time to throw ou the rpi, miami of ohio???!!
  7. Phil
    7. Posted by Phil Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:10 pm EDT

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    timalot, you must drinkalot. no chance at eight teams, no chance at 7 teams. very little chance at 6 teams. top five teams decent chance. if the whole league goes .500 in conference it doesn't give the league a BETTER chance.
    past tournry failures will weigh heavily - big ten fast becoming a mid-major.
  8. WisDells
    8. Posted by WisDells Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:18 pm EDT

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    Really Phil? Fast becoming a mid major? I say this year the Big Ten is probably the third best conference after the Big East and the ACC. MSU, Wisco, Michigan, Illinois, and Minn will most likely all get in and OSU has some good non-conference wins to impress the committee as well. Big Ten may be falling behind in football, but not basketball. At least not yet.
  9. randy882
    9. Posted by randy882 Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:29 pm EDT

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    if the big 10 honestly believes they should land eight spots then why is the acc even playing a regular season just put every team from that conference in the tourney right now.
  10. Z-Money
    10. Posted by Z-Money Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:27 pm EDT

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    Phil, going .500 overall is exactly why the Big Ten teams out of conference winning percentage was 2nd out of any conference (Only the ACC teams had a higher out of conference winning %). The tournament committee looks at how well the conference did before the regular conference schedule started to gauge how tough the league was. All this being said, I think 6 get in, although the 6th is a toss-up for me between Purdue and OSU...looking like OSU at the moment.
  11. Z-Money
    11. Posted by Z-Money Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:27 pm EDT

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    To correct my previous post...going .500 overall in the conference play is why they will look at out of conference success since all conferences go .500 in conference play by definition.
  12. SaltLife
    12. Posted by SaltLife Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:53 pm EDT

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    Who is this Eamonn guy? Sounds ignorant and biased to me. The facts are that the Big Ten is right up there with the Big East and ACC with team quality, RPI, impressive wins, top coaches and players and so on. This year the Big Ten is hitting it's stride again and it will get even better next year and thereafter, so get used to BIG Ten resurgence.
  13. Karl
    13. Posted by Karl Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:50 pm EDT

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    Since nobody here watches all the conferences play ball why not look at the numbers? Oh wait, that would be intelligent. Let's just make crazy statements based on personal bias. Lousy article...
  14. devin
    14. Posted by devin Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:08 pm EDT

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    If you think this is a lousy article, you should see the rest of the nonsense this wannabe Lavin has conjured up.
  15. bfoster
    15. Posted by bfoster Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:12 pm EDT

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    Wow, Eamonn Brennan sounds like a 12 year old girl. What is the point of making fun of Bruce Weber's face multiple times. What does that have to do with anything?
  16. bfoster
    16. Posted by bfoster Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:12 pm EDT

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    I forgot one other thing. If you (Eamonn Brennan) are looking for another story idea, you may want to review Virginia Tech, one of their coaches would be a great target for you.
    You are a complete tool.
  17. jasbaer
    17. Posted by jasbaer Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:29 pm EDT

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    you forgot purdue, wisdells. if the draw was today, there is no doubt the big(11)ten would have eight teams in. and two of them have great chances of making the national semi-finals.
  18. Artie Ziff
    18. Posted by Artie Ziff Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:58 pm EDT

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    Big 10 will get 8
  19. Thelonious Beck
    19. Posted by Thelonious Beck Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:56 pm EDT

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    Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Minnesota are locks at this point. Michigan, Illinois, and Ohio State need only to win 8 conference games to get in. Penn State has a great shot with a 9-7 conference record. There are your eight teams.
  20. JD H
    20. Posted by JD H Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:31 pm EDT

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    Take it easy on the Big Ten Brennan!
  21. Ryan
    21. Posted by Ryan Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:57 pm EDT

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    hey eamonn - man, what kind of toolish, douchey name is "eamonn" anyways? - weber and izzo both said "up to" seven or eight bids. they didn't say "eight teams are a lock for the tournament" or "if the big 10 gets less than eight teams in it will be disappointing". they simply suggested that up to eight teams could be deserving of a spot in the tournament, depending on how the season plays out.
    try to be less retarded in the future. you have no clue about how the season will play out, any more than the coaches do. they're just doing their job and talking up their conference. you're clearly a big 10 hater, which is fine, you have a right to hate the big 10 as much as you love licking windows. but at least try to not twist the words of people you quote in the near future so blatantly, ok sweetie?
  22. Ari Gold
    22. Posted by Ari Gold Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:45 pm EDT

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    Good article, Eamonn. But this might have more relevance in February.
  23. Dino
    23. Posted by Dino Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:43 pm EDT

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    Purdue is not a lock at this point, losing to Penn St and to the Illini at home is not something a lock team does. No one knows what's going to happen and rankings/predictions don't mean poop right now. Look at a team like Tennessee. They lost to Gonzaga when the Zags were ranked 9th last month. Yesterday, they lost to the Zags again, this time at home, and the Zags are not ranked anymore, yet somehow ESPN has Tenn. ranked 15th. How's Tennessee ranked 15th when they also lost to an unranked Temple team, an unranked Kansas team, and were a free throw away from losing to unranked Belmont at home?? Then there's Louisville, who's gotten blown out at home to West. Kentucky, blown out at Minnesota, and lost at home to unranked UNLV, yet there still ranked 21st by ESPN. C'mon. Clean up on aisle Common Sense!!
  24. Treize K
    24. Posted by Treize K Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:30 pm EDT

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    The Big Ten isn't going to get 8. Six at the most. Right now that's MSU, Wisconsin, Purdue, Michigan, Illinois, and Ohio State fighting Minnesota and Penn State for the last spot.
    Say what you want about the Big Ten but is clearly closer to the ACC and Big East than it is to a down Pac-10 and a VERY, VERY down SEC. SEC will be lucky to get 4 teams this year.
    As far as the RPI, remember that the selection committee gives extra points at the end of the season to teams that win a majority of their last 10 games, teams with a good record against the RPI Top 100, and teams with a good NonConf SOS.
  25. jasbaer
    25. Posted by jasbaer Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:29 pm EDT

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    purdue is a lock at this point is what he meant i think. they lost to a soon-to-be-ranked penn state and ranked illinois without their best defender and scorer. even if they lose a bunch with those 2 out, purdue will be in the tournament, that's a certainty. i'm not so sure about wisconsin though.

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