The Dagger - NCAAB

As we sit in the post-draft afterglow, College Eye is the Dagger's look at players whose draft positions don't line up with their amateur output. Potential, health concerns and the rest of the usual draft night wonkery need not apply here.

1. Austin Daye, Gonzaga; Detroit Pistons, No. 15 overall: Perhaps the Pistons are so blinded by their love for Tayshaun Prince (who was an awfully good college player himself) and so convinced that Daye is in that mold that they're willing to overlook a few simple facts. For one, Daye is nowhere near NBA-ready, which showed up frequently at Gonzaga in 2008-09. For an athletic 6-foot-11 forward playing in the WCC, Daye didn't score much -- 12 points a game -- and only grabbed 6.8 rebounds a game. These are not impressive numbers. Why are they so weak? Because Daye is: He's far too easy to push off the block, and far too easy to dislocate during rebounds. If the WCC's finest pushed him around, Lord knows what the NBA will do.

2. DeMar DeRozan, USC; Toronto Raptors, No. 9 overall: It's not hard to see why NBA teams would like DeRozan -- he's a big, athletic guard with tons of upside. But our equation doesn't factor in upside, and when it comes to collegiate production, DeRozan wasn't anywhere near the top 10. In his one season with USC, DeRozan played 33 minutes a game and scored but 13 points. His three point field goal percentage (16.7 percent, to be exact) was dreadful. The only reason his stats don't look worse is a late-season run of productivity; before January, DeRozan struggled to even crack the Trojans' lineup, and many considering it a pipe dream that DeRozan would be a one-and-done. So much for that. Players may be going to college now, but the NBA is still addicted to potential.

3. Jrue Holiday, UCLA; Philadelphia 76ers, No. 17 overall: There are some mitigating factors when it comes to grading Holiday's freshman season: Instead of playing his natural point guard spot (Drew Collison had that locked up), Holiday was forced to move off the ball. Had he gone somewhere else, his college production-to-NBA-esteem gulf probably wouldn't be so wide. But he didn't, and so it is. Holiday's freshman year stats lend to incredulity: He scored 8.5 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 3.7 assists, and his time wasn't exactly limited; he played 27 minutes a game. Holiday simply struggled as a freshman. If all you had was college performance to look at, you'd be shocked to see Holiday in the top 20. But here he is.

4. Taylor Griffin, Oklahoma; Phoenix Suns, No. 48 overall: It feels slightly mean to pick on Taylor Griffin here. Between he and his brother, he got the lesser skills and the worse hair, though, to his credit, he did outdress Blake by leaps and bounds last night. But Griffin is simply not a pro player, and his college days line up with that. Playing alongside Blake, a world-destroying talent on the offensive end, Taylor notched a mere nine points in 30 or so minutes per game. The sight test agrees. It's hard for anyone to be drafted too high in the second round, but the notion that Griffin was only 11 picks behind DeJuan Blair is baffling.

5. B.J. Mullens, Ohio State; Dallas Mavericks, No. 24 overall: I've discussed before why Mullens was such a weird one-and-done at Ohio State. He was the No. 1 recruit in the country before his freshman season, a major, Greg Oden-esque get for Ohio State coach Thad Matta ... who proceeded, once Mullens arrived, to keep the big man off the court at all costs. Mullens is a project. The NBA loves projects. I get it. But if you're a seven-footer and you struggle to stay on the court in the Big Ten, that doesn't bode well for your -- at least immediate -- NBA future.

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9 Comments

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  1. Hambone
    1. Posted by Hambone Fri Jun 26, 2009 11:25 am EDT

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    Personally, I think Taylor Griffin fits perfectly into the Suns' new "Crappy Brother" team model.
  2. Hambone
    2. Posted by Hambone Fri Jun 26, 2009 11:26 am EDT

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    That being said, he's undersized, not nearly athletic enough to make up for it, and a foul machine.
  3. Devine
    3. Posted by Devine Fri Jun 26, 2009 11:35 am EDT

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    I clearly don't watch nearly enough college basketball -- I coulda sworn the dude's name was Darren Collison.
  4. robdauster99
    4. Posted by robdauster99 Fri Jun 26, 2009 12:00 pm EDT

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    Completely disagree about Derozan. I feel like people were saying the exact same thing about Gerald Wallace coming out of college, and he's turned into a solid pro. What does Wallace have that Derozan doesn't?
  5. SteveP
    5. Posted by SteveP Fri Jun 26, 2009 1:11 pm EDT

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    yeah it was darren
  6. Kyle G
    6. Posted by Kyle G Fri Jun 26, 2009 3:40 pm EDT

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    This entire article is garbage. You don't count potential into your formula? Congratulations, you just showed why your opinion should have no validity. The NBA is an upside league, learn to accept it.
    Holiday, a player that some "experts" had being a top 10 pick was drafted too early at 17? Really?
    Mullens, the number one high school player recruit, was drafted too early as a late first rounder? Really?
    The only person you got right was Taylor Griffin, which as you admitted, was a low blow.
    Congratulations.
  7. Danny
    7. Posted by Danny Fri Jun 26, 2009 10:12 pm EDT

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    Yea... I hope the Pistons made a right choice..
  8. Jarod M
    8. Posted by Jarod M Sun Jun 28, 2009 2:32 am EDT

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    Disclaimer: I'm biased in favor of Taylor because I live in Oklahoma and am an OU fan. I think the author of this article, when discussing Taylor, is forgetting that Taylor was a role player at OU. He had to be for the last 2 seasons. With Blake there, he had to step up the defense and be more aggressive because Blake couldn't be. It did no one any good at OU for Blake to get into foul trouble and be on the bench, so other players played more aggressively and got more fouls than they normally would have. He has good skills and a good shot when he takes it. I think he'll make it in the NBA, but I don't hold my breath for him to be named an All Star. If he doesn't make it in the NBA, he's said he wants to go to medical school. He's got good enough grades to do it too.
  9. Yoki R
    9. Posted by Yoki R Sun Jun 28, 2009 4:59 am EDT

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    LOL at Hambone. youre absolutely right, the not so good brother goes to Phoenix... Maybe Xavier Henry's brother (dont know his name) might be taken by the Suns too in the future...

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