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Sat Mar 14, 2009 3:21 am EDT

Bubble Babble: Virginia Tech refuses to make things easy

By MJD

Teams who have experienced a status change since yesterday are highlighted. Green is good. Blue is bad.

On The Good Side of the Bubble (currently looking at a 4-spot bubble):

Creighton, Arizona, Temple, Virginia Tech

On the Bad Side of the Bubble:

San Diego State, St. Mary's, Auburn, USC, Tulsa, Penn State, Providence, South Carolina, Davidson, UAB, Florida, Kentucky,

In There Like Swimwear (43 teams):

Atlantic 10: Xavier, Dayton
ACC: North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State, Boston College, Maryland
Big 12: Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Texas, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M
Big East: Connecticut, Pitt, Louisville, Villanova, Marquette, Syracuse, West Virginia
Big Ten: Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Minnesota, Michigan
C-USA: Memphis
Horizon: Cleveland State, Butler
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa
Mountain West: Brigham Young, Utah
Pac-10: Washington, UCLA, Cal, Arizona State
SEC: Louisiana State, Tennessee
WCC: Gonzaga
WAC: Utah State

The Likely One-Bid Conferences (18 teams):

East Tennessee State (Atlantic Sun), Portland State (Big Sky), Radford (Big South), Virginia Commonwealth (Colonial), Cornell (Ivy), Siena (MAAC), Robert Morris (Northeast), Morehead State (Ohio Valley), American (Patriot), Chattanooga (Southern), North Dakota State (Summit), Western Kentucky (Sun Belt), Binghamton (America East), Cal State Northridge (Big West), Bowling Green (MAC), Morgan State (MEAC), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), Alabama State (SWAC)

Notes and Changes:

• Moved in to the tournament: Temple and Virginia Tech. Moved out of the tournament: Penn State and South Carolina. We'll come back to these.

• Maryland, Minnesota, and Michigan have been moved off of the bubble and into "In There Like Swimwear" territory. Maryland, on the strength of their huge win against Wake Forest yesterday, and Michigan and Minnesota, because I felt like they were the safest of the "bubble" gang. The only way any of these three teams comes back into play is if both Tulsa and Utah State fail to win their conference tournaments.

• Virginia Tech ... what do you do? Their résumé has definite weaknesses, but playing Carolina that close means something. They passed "the eye test." Any of this sound familiar? It might, because it was the exact same situation with the Hokies last year. I say they're tentatively in, but I reserve the right to change my mind on that.

• Nice win for Auburn against Florida, but I don't think it did much for them. It probably eliminated Florida, but Auburn ... sorry, their résumé is otherwise extremely lacking. I think they've got to win the whole SEC she-bang to get in.

• Well done, Temple Owls. That's a big-time win over Xavier. Add that to non-conference wins against Penn State and Tennessee, and an RPI of 39, and I think you just plowed your way into the tournament. What happens if they lose today to Duquesne? I don't know. I prefer not to think about it.

Of bubble relevance on this glorious Saturday:

11:35 a.m.: Tulsa vs. Memphis.
3:30. Auburn vs. Tennessee.
6:00. Duquesne vs. Temple.
7:00. San Diego State vs. Utah.
10:00. Nevada vs. Utah State.

Related: The Big Dance, Bubble Babble

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36 Comments

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  1. bluelightning11
    1. Posted by bluelightning11 Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:09 pm EDT

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    I'm not so sure about Virginia Tech passing the eye test. Lawson didn't play for North Carolina so I think Virginia Tech needed a win, not just a close loss.
  2. smente
    2. Posted by smente Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:38 pm EDT

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    i thought seekseniors was some sort of recruiting site for coaches!!! too bad penn state is out. it comes back to that iowa overtime game (ok, and the first half flame-out to purdue). what about u$c? in for making the pac10 finals, or do they get in and arizona gets bumped?
  3. TheTruth
    3. Posted by TheTruth Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:27 pm EDT

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    Did one of you guys go to Virginia Tech or something? That's the only explanation I can come up with for why you'd think they belong in the Tournament at 18-13 and an RPI of 59. So they lost a close game to a top team without a top player. That suddenly makes up for their subpar season? Meanwhile, you don't even list Baylor in your bubble even though they had a better RPI, better SOS,
    and more top 25 and top 50 wins. You could say the same for most of the teams on your "On the Bad Side of the Bubble" list. What a joke.
  4. baller13zg
    4. Posted by baller13zg Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:58 pm EDT

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    yeah, no VT.
    Baylor is close but needs to win today.
    And I think you definitely meant if *Memphis* and Utah St fail to win conference tourneys, then Minnesota and Michigan end up back on the bubble where they belong (no Big 10 team except Michigan St deserves to be in the tournament)
  5. M. McRazz
    5. Posted by M. McRazz Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:04 pm EDT

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    No VT, and SDSU should be on the good side of the bubble. Arizona is also probably not gonna make it now that the A-10 is getting a third team in.
  6. James S
    6. Posted by James S Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:02 pm EDT

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    Can we get live blogs for the tournaments., pweeease.
  7. heelfanatic
    7. Posted by heelfanatic Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:28 pm EDT

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    I hate to say it, but VT has lost too many "close" conference games. They should be going to the NIT. I hate it for A.D. Vasaillo, hes a tremendous player, but VT just haven't done enough.
  8. Branjawn
    8. Posted by Branjawn Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:28 pm EDT

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    8 of VaTech's losses were by 4 points or less. 11 losses were to Tourney teams. 8 or 9 losses to Top 25 teams. They also won AT #1 and AT #12. Baylor went 5-11 in a conference with only 3 ranked teams. The ACC has 3 teams in the Top 10.
  9. jim
    9. Posted by jim Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:21 pm EDT

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    Hey Baller you must not watch the bigten probably the 2nd best conf behind the big east.
  10. PatrickA
    10. Posted by PatrickA Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:38 pm EDT

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    Tourni teams need to prove they can win some close games not be good losers - not to VT (unless we want to say how far they have come from the tradegy - which I am ok with)
  11. AggieInCali
    11. Posted by AggieInCali Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:09 pm EDT

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    This year is crazy because so many favorites are losing early in the conference tourneys......the Big 12 especially.....so if Baylor beats Mizzou then you could say the Big 12 will have 7 teams in....if Baylor wins then that makes me worry about my Aggies chances of making it in.
    I think the more upsets you have in conference tourneys, the more difficult the at-large bids become. It is bad when the favorite of a smaller conference doesnt win its conference tourney.....should that small conference favorite get an at-large bid?.......should Butler get in for losing to Cleveland State? if so then would Butler be put in over Texas A&M a team from a larger conference that did nothing in the conference tourney.
    I just dont see how Temple can get in if they don't win the finals of the A-10 tourney.
  12. jr0
    12. Posted by jr0 Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:51 pm EDT

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    I am telling everyone right now pick Michigan State or Purdue to win the whole thing. I know this sounds crazy, but every year i fill-out at least one bracket picking the NCAA champs from the conference that everyone seems to think is very weak (but somehow got a fair amount of bids...sorry SEC). This strategy has actually won several pools recently. A few years ago when people were down on the SEC, I had Florida winning the whole thing, I also picked Syracuse a couple of years ago when the Big East was being dogged. Yeah,yeah, this isn't full-proof, but go with Michigan State this year in one pool, you'll be okay!
  13. david
    13. Posted by david Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:45 pm EDT

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    Jack Ass if San Diego is still on the bubble youve had way to much hooch
  14. B C
    14. Posted by B C Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:14 pm EDT

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    I think it's really funny that people still debate which conferences are good or bad. This isn't football people, there's actually math involved in the process. The Big 10 is deserving of 7 bids, because they all have a solid resume. I'm leaving Penn State off of the list because you have to beat somebody in the non-conference part of your schedule and 10-8 in conference doesn't overcome that. The SEC is crap this year, that's why they're only going to get 3 or 4 teams. Just like the Big 10 was last year. I think teams like Michigan and Minnesota are a tough out in the tournament because of the systems they run and they're good enough to beat the top teams in the country at any given time. Also, I really don't think Maryland should be in just because of that win over Wake. They went 7-9 in conference, have a lower RPI, and only have 4 wins over top 50. If they beat Duke, I think they're in, but I still think they're right on the bubble even after that.
  15. LL
    15. Posted by LL Thu Sep 03, 2009 6:55 pm EDT

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    The Big 10 is so weak, how did they get so many teams??
  16. Paul R
    16. Posted by Paul R Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:03 pm EDT

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    sdsu penn st (maybe creighton) are last two teams in with baylor usc and md stealing bids with a win. az vt and the rest are finished.
  17. B C
    17. Posted by B C Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:14 pm EDT

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    The Big 10 isn't weak. That's what people are struggling to realize. The 7 teams in are all deserving of a bid. Who has a better resume than them that's getting their bid stolen?
  18. Paul R
    18. Posted by Paul R Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:03 pm EDT

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    I rewrite the column.
    59 locks - Tex A&M is the last "in there like swimwear team" - includes the A10 champ
    6 bubble spots - SDSU, Minn, Mich, Penn State, Utah State (with a loss), Creighton, MD
    Bid Stealers - A10 champ, Miss St. (with SEC title), Aub (with one win), USC, Baylor, Nevada
    NIT locks - St. Mary's, Providence, South Carolina, Davidson, UAB, Florida, Kentucky, Arizona
  19. thenextchamp919
    19. Posted by thenextchamp919 Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:04 pm EDT

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    Paul R, have you been listening to what I've been saying on ESPN.com? You must be really smart because I agree with everything you say! I have believed all of that for the past 12 hours or so. The only difference is I believe St. Mary's is the final bubble team. Aside from that, perfection!
  20. David P
    20. Posted by David P Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:50 pm EDT

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    How is USC vs. Arizona St. not worthy of a mention about "Bubble relevance" games? Hello, USC wins their in and someone else gets their bubble burst!
  21. B C
    21. Posted by B C Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:14 pm EDT

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    How can Michigan and Minnesota be on the bubble when every other person has them both in? And I still think that Auburn has to win the SEC because they still hardly get anything from beating Tennessee. That still only puts them somewhere in the upper 50's RPI, only 3 wins against top 50, and they still have a bad SOS. I agree with all the NIT locks, but I'm not sure the bubble is that big. I really agreed with his 4 spot bubble. And that shrinks if Baylor or Miss State win their leagues. I also think with some upsets, that Utah State doesn't make it as an at large should they lose the final. They have a great RPI, but nothing else to show they're really deserving of a bid.
  22. fugazi619
    22. Posted by fugazi619 Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:04 pm EDT

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    How can you say SDSU is still on the bubble? Both their RPI and SOS are in the 40s. Plus they played the first 7 games without their best player, Lorenzo Wade, and Billy White was injured when they lost to New Mexico, Utah, and BYU. They are finally 100% healthy and running through their conference tournament. They are in!
  23. Rapunzuelo
    23. Posted by Rapunzuelo Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:05 pm EDT

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    The Hokies have definate weaknesses, that is a given fact! However......which bubble team doesn't? They all do, otherwise, they'be in, and not "on the bubble" It's easy for some to say "Virginia Tech needed to do more" but I can say the same thing about all the bubble teams, including teams like Creighton, SanDiegoSt., St.Mary's etc....What did they do? Creighton's SOS is atrocious, SDST beat UNLV 3 times, BYU twice and Utah, good teams, certainly nothing to get rivaled up about....and St.Mary's, we'll they're asking the committee to make an exception for an injured player, Get the f....out of here! St.Mary's, come and play BC,Clemson, Duke, Carolina(twice), Miami, and FSU, and tell me how it went? 0-7? most likely.
    I hear the "it's about how the team is playing of late" Losing to Carolina (and the obvious preferential treatment of UNC) by 3 after whipping UM (a very good team at 51 RPI) is not great, but it merits a consideration. I don't think St.Mary's, Creighton, or SDST could hang within 15 points with UNC.
    So if you want to "get the best teams in", VT needed to do more, but they should be one of the 34 best teams at large, certainly better than creighton or St.Mary's. I think USC should be in over Creighton. Don't forget Arizona either
  24. Rapunzuelo
    24. Posted by Rapunzuelo Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:05 pm EDT

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    My last four in (in that order)
    USC
    Arizona
    Temple
    VT
  25. Rapunzuelo
    25. Posted by Rapunzuelo Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:05 pm EDT

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    VT's losses:
    UNC (twice)
    Duke (twice)
    Wisconsin
    FSU (twice)
    BC
    Clemson
    Xavier
    Maryland
    11 of the 14 losses to tournament teams (and 6 of them to a #1,3, and 5 seed in the tourney)
    I'd like to see the other bubble teams play this slate and see what they do?

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