Many programs have statements to make

It’s a comparison few would make. But in a way, college baseball mimics the stock market.

As with the stock market, there are some programs out there like Texas, Cal State Fullerton, LSU, Florida State and North Carolina that are constants. There also are programs such as Baylor, Nebraska, California, Arizona and Tulane that can’t seem to find their places in college baseball’s stock market.

Then there are programs such as Texas Christian, Virginia, East Carolina, Kansas and Ohio State that may remind some of the rising tech stars of the late 1990s.

TCU reached a super regional last season and has a chance to be even better in 2010, Virginia will be a national title contender in the spring, East Carolina has a golden opportunity to be the best team in the state of North Carolina for once, Kansas could make a huge statement in the Big 12 and Ohio State has the personnel to return to Omaha for the first time since ’67.

Paul Gerrish and others have helped TCU become a factor on the national stage.

(Associated Press)

Some stocks will rise and some will fall. But for many, it’s all about timing.

Perhaps that scenario will play out for some of our rising and declining programs.

On the rise

Texas Christian

Analysis. The Horned Frogs always have been solid with coach Jim Schlossnagle in charge. But until last season, most observers considered TCU a successful program that, in part, was a product of being a member of the Mountain West Conference. TCU put that theory to rest last season when it defeated Oregon State to win the Fort Worth Regional and took Texas to three games in the Austin Super Regional. Also consider the fact the Frogs likely will be as good or better in 2010.

Virginia

Analysis. The Cavaliers have had a solid program since coach Brian O’Connor’s arrival, so considering them a rising program depends on the context. There’s no question the Cavaliers have been one of the ACC’s upper echelon programs the past few seasons. But after advancing to the College World Series last season, the Cavaliers will enter the ’10 campaign with national title aspirations. Virginia is trying to become one of the nation’s perennial powers. Will that happen?

East Carolina

Analysis. There’s a strong feeling around the country and in the state of North Carolina that East Carolina is about to become a top-tier program. The Pirates have experienced some success the past few seasons, but took their biggest step forward last season by winning the Conference USA regular season crown and hosting an NCAA regional. The Pirates will have another solid team in ’10. They also have the ability to be the top team in North Carolina for the first time in a long time.

Kansas

Analysis. This is the pick we’re least confident about. The Jayhawks are at a crossroads as a program. They’ve reached an NCAA regional in the distant past and promptly returned to being an average Big 12 program. KU also made a regional last season and compiled an impressive 39-24 record. It welcomes back a plethora of key cogs from the ’09 team in the spring. But the question remains: is KU ready to become a legitimate player on the national stage, or will it again decide to be a pretender? For once, the Jayhawks appear to be headed toward a positive result.

Ohio State

Analysis. The Buckeyes haven’t had an issue making a name for themselves this decade. But in terms of being a player on the national stage, the Bucks have yet to master that objective. That could change in the spring. Ohio State welcomes back several key players from a squad that finished last season with a 42-19 record and a Big Ten regular season championship. OSU will have one of the nation’s best pitchers in Alex Wimmers. It also welcomes back a plethora of talent at the plate. This team can get to Omaha.

On the decline

Arizona

Analysis. The Wildcats are in danger of taking an incredibly hard fall. They were one of the nation’s best teams two seasons ago and reached the Coral Gables Super Regional. However, they struggled mightily last season and finished the campaign with an unimpressive 30-25 record. The Wildcats can quickly avoid a decline but a further decline at least is expected in the spring. The Wildcats are without several key cogs from the ’09 team and ’10 could be a difficult campaign. Can ‘Zona weather the storm?

Baylor

Analysis. The Bears took a huge step forward back in ’05 by reaching the CWS and actually making some noise in Omaha. But just a few seasons later, BU is on the brink of becoming a non-factor on the national stage. The Bears reached an NCAA regional last season, but finished the season near the bottom of the Big 12 with an unimpressive 30-26 record. The upcoming season is important for Baylor’s reputation on the national stage. A successful campaign is good news for coach Steve Smith and the Bears. An average or bad campaign likely means more trouble.

Tulane

Analysis. It wasn’t too long ago – ’05 to be exact – the Green Wave was the top national seed entering the CWS. Now Tulane just hopes to make a regional each season. The Green Wave has missed a regional two of the last three seasons and lost just enough key players during the offseason to make a regional an uncertain scenario in the spring. The Green Wave desperately needs to make a statement in ’10. Tulane has an excellent facility and a solid coaching staff. Something must give sooner rather than later.

Nebraska

Analysis. The Huskers are officially in the danger zone. Just two seasons ago, the Big Red finished with a 41-16 record and hosted the Lincoln Regional. However, NU finished dead last in the Big 12 last season with an 8-19 conference record. It also ended the campaign with a dismal 25-30 record. The Huskers don’t welcome back too many key cogs in the spring and several newcomers must rise to the occasion to experience success. The Huskers are nearing their most important campaign in a few seasons.

California

Analysis. It’s time for the Golden Bears to make a statement. California appeared to take a step forward when it reached an NCAA regional two seasons ago. However, the Bears finished last season with a dismal 24-29 record. Even more embarrassing is the fact the Bears compiled a 9-18 Pac-10 record and finished four games out of eighth place behind Arizona, Stanford, Southern California and Washington. Cal shook up its coaching staff in the offseason, but that transaction likely won’t change too much. The Bears appear to be in some trouble.